Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 02/8/2019 14:09

Very interesting FG, with 9 million director share options due to expire on 23/12/2019 they will certainly want to conclude the process by then at the very latest!

[fatgreek] 02/8/2019 13:58

This just popped on amerisur website...Any idea?http://amerisurresources.com/images/aimrule26-documents/Form-8-OPD-02-08-19.pdf

[fatgreek] 02/8/2019 13:29

Agreed, point noted on both.....

[bountyhunter] 02/8/2019 13:28

No surprise there Ross and even if one was found it would be the exception rather than the rule. 25p is quite realistic I think unless Indico-2 comes in before the sales process is concluded in which case the final price could well be higher.

[ladeside] 02/8/2019 13:27

FG, I get what you're saying however you for one should know that this board has always been one of the few on advfn (or anywhere for that matter), where the holders were pretty much straight up about things, shared research both positive and negative and all in all tended to debate the realities rather than posting any fantastical nonsense in some sort of poor attempt at ramping the share price

ML actually being one who quite often stepped in to temper the enthusiasm of Val when he let his excitement run away with him, although many of his theories and research did come to pass and also proved priceless at times for us all.

I do wonder what val would have thought of all the drivel which has been posted on here over the last week or so..........

[danieldruff2] 02/8/2019 13:18

He's after the "I told you so" award, but of course there's always the risk of prat of the year award :-)

[fatgreek] 02/8/2019 13:16

Ok answer me one question what benefit do you get out of arguing your point? Happy to agree to disagree or be corrected but what benefit do you get from it.

[xxnjr] 02/8/2019 13:12

This year started with a flurry of takeover activity in the UK small-cap oil and gas sector and recent interest in London-listed Amerisur Resources suggests the trend is continuing.

In January, Faroe Petroleum.....

That was quickly followed by a £408m deal for south-east Asia-focused Ophir Energy by Indonesia’s Medco Energi.....

The target companies shared little in common when it came to their assets. Instead, opportunism has been the defining theme, according to Stephane Foucaud, analyst at GMP FirstEnergy.

With oil prices relatively “solid”, so-called independent oil companies are generating decent levels of cash. But there is a “complete lack of appetite” from general investors to back smaller listed fossil-fuel producers because of climate change and ESG — environmental, social and governance — policies, he said.

There are, therefore, “a lot of bargain deals to be made”, particularly as acquirers can fund bids largely with debt and the target company’s cash......

Amerisur Resources

London-listed Amerisur Resources, whose assets are based mainly in Colombia, said last month it had received interest from external parties and would carry out a strategic review, looking at options including a possible sale.

A few days later, Maurel & Prom (M & P), listed on France’s Euronext exchange, admitted it had made an approach to Amerisur on July 18 about a possible $257m cash and shares takeover.

Amerisur’s board said the 17p-a-share approach “was not at a level, nor in a form, that merited further consideration” and it had held a “number of conversations” with counterparties who had expressed interest in participating in a formal sales process.

Amerisur produced an average of 5,537 barrels of oil per day to the end of June. It is drilling up to 10 wells this year, predominantly in the Llanos basin in central Colombia where most of the country’s oil is produced and where discoveries can be developed quickly and cheaply.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets have speculated New York-listed Geopark, which has assets neighbouring those of Amerisur in the Llanos basin, would be among the “most credible” candidates for any possible rival offer.

Amerisur’s shares, which were trading at 14.12p a year ago, are now up at 18p.

[ashkv] 02/8/2019 13:07

*No firm offer

[ashkv] 02/8/2019 13:05

30 Day Volume Weighted Average

30 Day VWA for Amerisur above 15p now as 2 weeks since strategic review announced on Friday 19 July (will be 2 weeks tomorrow 2 Aug).

Maybe Rosanan we can now receive a near 100% premium from an acquirer other than M&P ?? :) :)

No offer was made by M&P - and now easily an offer could be made within 100% of current price & accepted. Clock is ticking 30 Day Volume Weighted Average is Ballooning :) :

This is why few and far examples of straight off 100% premiums to "announced firm offer" as tentative offers are never mentioned.

IPOs have many instances of 3-4x in weeks after pricing - case in point Beyond Meat. What is the big deal with Amerisur getting offer from an entity other than bottom tier firm M&P for 100% of current 30 day Vol Weighted Average - not a biggie and well within valuation ballpark :) :)

[fatgreek] 02/8/2019 13:03

For someone invested. Good to be realistic but one could question ones intentions by bashing down their own investments possibilities..for me with respect is illogicalAll in my opinion of course...

[ashkv] 02/8/2019 13:02

Case in point - would you think this person is long the stock or a troll (paid de-ramper??)

rossannan
1 Aug '19 - 20:34 - 22411 of 22439
0 0 0
The commodity price is not playing ball. Someone may end up with a real bargain.

[ladeside] 02/8/2019 12:37

Stifel are Amers own in house broker and nomad, of course they're going to big them up.

Name me a house broker who doesn't ???

That's not to say I don't think the company is worth a damn sight more than current sp, however everyone knows to take these brokers views with a very large pinch of salt......

[ashkv] 02/8/2019 12:16

REPOST FOR NEW COMERS TO AMERISUR - APOLOGIES TO THOSE WHO MIGHT HAVE REVIEWED PRIOR - Thank you.

Stifel Analysts think share price is minimum 37p - AND STIFEL IS ONE OF THE ADVISORS MANDATED FOR STRATEGIC REVIEW - SO HOPEFULLY THE CAN WORK THEIR DEAL MAKING MAGIC TO GET US APPROPRIATE VALUE :)

Steifel's last NAV breakdown table for AMER is there too - worth looking at


Continuous H2 2019 drilling programme in CPO-5: We carry the exploration &
appraisal upside at CPO-5 at 18p/shr risked in our 37p NAV (70p unrisked; Figure 1).
The attraction of the licence is: (i) moderate geological risk (75% success rate to date),
(ii) rapid discovery-to-monetisation timeline, a matter of days/weeks, and (iii) benign, lowcost
operating environment both in terms of capex, opex and oil exports.
• Appraisal up next, could add 20% to group production: As previously announced, the next well at CPO-5 will be appraisal of the Indico discovery, with a result expected in ~August (Indico-2). Prior wells have flowed 3-5 kb/d (gross); at the mid-point and net to AMER's 30% working interest, the contribution to group revenue of a success would therefore be around 20% of our estimate of underlying FY19 group production (5.9 kb/d).
• H2 2019 activity on the block could add ~50% to group reserves: The schedule beyond Indico-2 is yet to be determined, but success at the well might encourage further back-to-back drilling on the structure. Indico's upside is c.50M bbls (70 vs current 2P of 23), so, net to 30% working interest, adds of ~15M bbls would equate to ~50% of group reserves.
• Sol testing to complete first: Amerisur expects to wrap up testing of the Sol well in the next couple of weeks. As announced on June 17, the well found 27 feet of net pay, which is some way below the two other successes in the block (100 ft +). Nevertheless, the commercial threshold here is low, and we would expect the well to be put into commercial production even were it to achieve a rate of a few hundred barrels per day.
Production guide reiterated; we are top end: 2019E guidance of 5-6 kb/d looks achievable vs. June daily production 6.8 kb/d, despite a modest first quarter that saw 5M production average 5.3 kb/d. Current guidance excludes any exploration success.

[ashkv] 02/8/2019 12:14

On another board this character Rosanan seldom posts and that too when he does it is on penny shares - and all of a sudden he is all over Amerisur discussions on various media.

Very very odd to me - why would a holder harp on about his max being 25p. Btw 25p is the last capital raise for Amerisur in 2016 when Brent at multi-decade lows - WOULD BE AN ADMISSION OF ABJECT FAILURE ON MANAGEMENT's PART SHOULD THEY ACCEPT SUCH A LOW BALL OFFER - A REAL LET DOWN FOR THE 2016 INVESTORS.

Getting back to original purpose of posting - I would take whatever this character Rosanan states with a grain of salt as he does appear to have an ulterior agenda of anchoring top price at 25p. Might be conspiracy theory like on my part - but where money is involved nothing is out of the question....

Below is what I post each time he chimes in with his negativity on the other board.

[xxnjr] 02/8/2019 12:11

Useful RNS showing director holdings

[ashkv] 02/8/2019 12:10

Yes Rosanan seems to be be parroting 25p from the get go of the Amerisur strategic review / M&P approach - it is like he is on their employ. Was never ever on Amerisur boards and now he is frequently posting with his 25p 25p 25p 25p stuck record routine. So annoying :(

I will have to parrot now to counteract :)