Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[gemlotte55] 07/3/2019 10:33

News Hopefully Monday

[sabre6] 07/3/2019 10:26

This has only got to be a matter of time before a massive re rating after all the directors have put their money where their mouth is and they know more than we do. I would have thought previous RNS would have had to state any bad news but it was all good news.

[nas_daq] 07/3/2019 09:07

OTMLBeen watching rmp as was in them years ago at same time as rrl ? what a rollercoaster, did you read those de-rampers on the rmp thread on Friday.....It's looking very optimistic for winx but if you can get a free carry, by top slicing, that's always the safest option.I'm much more cautious than my amer days ?Good luck

[bigbas] 07/3/2019 08:18

nicely said Charlieeee

[charlieeee] 06/3/2019 20:20

Sheepman1

Good of you to come on here, at such a difficult time, to acknowledge the kind words and sadness felt by so many.

I would particularly like to express regret that the children have lost such a brilliant Dad at such an early age: it is harder for the young and my hope is that they can come to terms with the loss, supported by such a close and caring family.

Thinking of you all.

[tyler durden1] 06/3/2019 18:12

This all bodes well for Amerisur, and why in my opinion Venezuela is of such importance to the U.S. The fake glut caused by loss making shale will topple sooner or later and if not it can only be supported by much higher oil price which will benefit companies like Amerisur

[tyler durden1] 06/3/2019 18:01

agree. That's the point. But their comments from interview are referring to the PERMIAN:
"Chevron maintains that it will be cash flow positive in the Permian by 2020"

[xxnjr] 06/3/2019 17:59

Haven't seen the blurb you allude to, but would imagine the 5bn Permian barrels threw off a heap of cash, seeing as it was produced before 2011; i.e mainly from the kind of conventional vertical wells you like.

[tyler durden1] 06/3/2019 17:28

From Chevron interview with Michael Wirth (CEO). Tomorrow tomorrow its always tomorrow:


"Chevron maintains that it will be cash flow positive in the Permian by 2020 and that the company would allocate much of additional cash flow to shareholder distributions. The company appears confident about the path that it is on in West Texas."

So how long has it been cash flow negative? Add that to the costs and the acquisition of acreage.

In their blurb it boasts about having produced 5 billionth barrel of oil from the Permian in 2011 yet it comments about not being cashflow positive until 2020!

It refers to its 2.2million net acres in the Permian, some in the Delaware where break evens on weaker wells are in terms of hundreds of dollars per barrel $188.18. It claims daily production 2017 of 117000bopd of crude (net Chevron Share) plus natural gas liquids etc.

117,000 x 365 = 42,705,000 a year allowing just 1 day's maintenance.

8 years = 341,640,000barrels. So its evident that when it refers to 5billionth barrel its comparing apples to pears, as it previously had production from conventional wells.

[knackers] 06/3/2019 16:53

The shale industry has plenty to be concerned about...

[tyler durden1] 06/3/2019 16:19

Ace
Thanks. But how do they even recover their capital expended on the leases. BP has to get a return on $10.5billion without even considering cost of production.

The EIA....don't make me laugh....if you look at historically why they came into existence it gives reason to be cautious on anything they say...Remember the Marcellus shale....eventually even the DOE showed a massive downgrade, contrary to the EIA's first overblown exaggerated resource guesstimates.

Then look up the Monterey shale, again EIA's overblown resource comments had to be dropped by 96per cent.

Expect the same of the Permian, as with Eagle Ford.

In the Permian, the often quoted breakevens did not stop them making losses, without consideration of the vast capital expended on acquiring and 'exploiting' the acreage, and even with the Permian the quoted low figures forget that the Permian break even is considerably different depending on sweet spots where for example the Permian Delaware wells require $188.25 on the weaker wells and even those figures were based on 2018 Initial Peak figures, which have deteriorated since. (BNEF)

Still with Red Queen Syndrome that by the laws of physics mean they will have to drill exponentially more wells to stand still let alone increase production, and well initial peak production figures declining because of parent/child wells, its really about the last one standing and its no coincidence that recently the U.S. oil companies kicked off about legislation that prevented them from passing on exhausted wells that should be plugged and abandoned to zombie companies who would then go bust....Much kicking and screaming coming from them, a good indication they have no intention of accounting for the billions of dollars on what then are stripper wells that are not maintained, leaving them to cause a toxic legacy that they want to be able to walk away from.


hxxp://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2019/01/has-us-shale-oil-entered-death-spiral.html

[knackers] 06/3/2019 16:11

Good gaud, are we gonna close on an intraday high?!

Shirley not...

[aceuk] 06/3/2019 16:05

Just for tyler!

[sheepman1] 06/3/2019 14:42

To all those long termers who new trotting on behalf off the family I would like to thank you for all the kind words that have been spoken about him he’ll be sadly missed by us all I’m his brother in law Kenny used to keep me updated on all happenings good or bad I looked in last night and couldn’t believe all the comments .Ive known Kenny 33 years and him and I have never had a wrong word with each other rare in families.

[moneylender] 06/3/2019 13:46

OT

Westie thinking of sticking with it tbh, the whole area is too prolific to be a failure. just wish I had bought Friday and not Thurs! lol

happy now you and Toon are in it as well.

[knackers] 06/3/2019 13:38

Same WML - now long for >1m shares and in for the duration. BoD have their exit plan well mapped, reckon it's 'adios' inside 18months.

As soon as these sellers are cleared it's going to get lively here - and fast.

[juuunx2] 06/3/2019 13:37

Well I got some more funds to play with finally. But do I buy before the gusher or wait for the overdone dip if we get duster? It's a tough call me thinks. Which ever way I will xxck it up no doubt

[westmoreland lad] 06/3/2019 13:21

Might be a mistake ML but I'm not even top slicing. Neither is TOON with 1.8MM

westmoreland lad - 06 Feb 2019 - 16:51:16 - 17459 of 1859 Red Emperor

On a happier note the last three trades of 58k today completed my betting slip.

I bet 1MM shares to win.

[moneylender] 06/3/2019 13:01

What was his advice Friday? I am in RMP, bought Thurs, spent Friday crying and now laughing, thing is should I go to the bank.

[bigwavedave] 06/3/2019 12:58

Lucyp00p - I hope no-one took your advice on Friday re PANR ;-)

[lucyp00p] 06/3/2019 11:42

Inheritance tax is zero on AIM shares held for more than 2 years, so not as long as GC has any say in the matter.