Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[westmoreland lad] 05/3/2019 15:11

05/03/2019 3:02pm Dow Jones News

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM)
Intraday Stock Chart

Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. plan to significantly ramp up production in the oil field at the heart of the American fracking boom, the latest sign that the next era of shale drilling is likely to be led by the major oil companies.

In the next five years, Chevron expects to more than double its production in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico to 900,000 barrels of oil and gas a day, the company announced at an investor event Tuesday. That's a nearly 40% increase from its previous forecast.

"The shale game has become a scale game," Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth said in an interview. "The race doesn't go to the one who gets out of the starting blocks the fastest. The race goes to the one who steadily builds the strongest machine."

Not to be outdone, Exxon on Tuesday announced plans to increase its Permian output to 1 million barrels of oil and gas a day by as early as 2024, a day before it was expected to disclose growth at its own investor meeting Wednesday. BP PLC, Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Occidental Petroleum Corp. are also focusing on the region.

"We're increasingly confident about our Permian growth strategy due to our unique development plans," Neil Chapman, Exxon's senior vice president, said in a statement.

Big oil's growing ambitions for the Permian follow a long-established pattern in the oil patch: Wildcatters and small exploration companies find ways to tap new reservoirs, then the big companies move in.

Five years ago, Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell and Occidental collectively made up about 9% of crude production from modern fracking techniques in the Permian. In October, the latest period for which relevant figures are available, they made up about 16%, according to data on ShaleProfile, an industry analytics platform.

[tsmith2] 05/3/2019 15:06

Agree. Certainly if trap formation proven!

[gmilner07] 05/3/2019 14:57

10.00am CP0-5 time.
If surpass 17p by end of day & stay there,then good chance news has leaked.??

[swerves1] 05/3/2019 14:42

A good Calao-1 result and I think this is primed ready to soar

[mickinvest] 05/3/2019 14:17

ONGC shares on the up, they drilling anything ?

[leas1] 05/3/2019 12:42

I think I posted a news article a few months ago into the Saudi's spending plans going into the next decade. Their targets were on the basis of the PoO being $82.
Cannot see the Russians 'opening up the taps' on any shale tailoff. Not in their interests.
Slightly off topic in relation to oil demand falling due to the increase of EVs in the near future is a load of tosh. I own two Vehicles 1 in UK and 1 in France. From experience the infrastructure is years away until we have contactless lane charging.
If you look at ONGCs website they have been tasked by the Indian government to secure huge reserves just to cover their demands driven by the country's expansion.
From memory, there was only 1 company in the US producing oil from shale that was making any profit which was likely to become loss making due to the cost of removing contaminated water.

Cal-1. No news is good news...

[sogoesit] 05/3/2019 12:16

Yep, I hear you.
Heard it all before... 3 times in 40 years.
Good luck and, for the oil price, hope you're right!

[tyler durden1] 05/3/2019 12:13

"The only thing we do know is price will bring supply to the market"

The flaw in your comment is that shale has not conformed to price/supply mechanism at all.

What we know from leaked cables to US from Saudi is Saudi overestimate considerably their oil resources/production abilitys and with a growing population/energy requirement they have less and less oil they can export but more and more money they need to find.

Fail to see how you don't believe in Peak Oil if you do not consider actual theory on Peak Oil and what it pertained to? But each to their own and I respect your right to your views.

What we know is we are not adding anything like the resources we are using even with shale in the equation, even with demonising diesel/plastic etc. etc.

[sogoesit] 05/3/2019 12:04

At the end of the day it's a cyclical pure commodity business (boom/bust, recession/gluts) whatever OPEC does.

Admittedly, and you admit as much ("you can say what you like if you refuse to have depletion rates or reserves properly audited"), you, me, and my dog know little or nothing about the future supply of crude oil and given that comment what the real potential capacity is. {Ignoring the "certainty" of audits and reserves estimates).
The only thing we do know is price will bring supply to the market and if its doesn't we'll crack some coal. If the price falls, supply will be restricted. All in the medium term.
Crude oil is a medium term play. There's always enough oil for about 25 - 30 years consumption (whereas coal is in the 100's years).

Here's the nominal price curve (press a button if you want inflation adjusted prices):



I am not a "believer" in Peak Oil. I started my career in the days of the "Limits to growth" in the'70's and have lived through 3 "Peak Oil" prognoses since then. All of them have proved to be carp.

Maybe this time you "believers" will be right.... maybe not?

What is certain is that we will see it in the price... over the medium term.

AIMV

Edit: By the way, on the gas front, suppliers sign 25 year SPAs! (Refer to ticker LNG on NYSE).

[knackers] 05/3/2019 11:37

Broadly agree with your points Tyler, there are supply problems lurking beneath rocks that peeps don’t want to turn over! No pun intended.

Edit: Seems analysts are now struggling to extrapolate continued, let alone explosive, shale growth going fwd. 2019 shale budgets have come in way lower than expected all thanks to tanking poo prices in 4Q18 and general -ve sentiment towards the sector. Keep watching the rig count, it could be down another 10pc by mid year.

[tyler durden1] 05/3/2019 11:30

sogoes

Peak oil based on conventional sweet commercial oil production?
Forecasts on that have been accurate?

There was no wholesale fracking no multi lateral shale drilling and selling oil cheaper than it cost to produce?

There was no deep offshore drilling, no ultra deep wells onshore.

Little drilling in the most inhospitable places on earth

Then word was forced to use sour crude previously discarded-over 50% of world oil production now consisting of crude that would have been discarded (sour) and not counted in any world oil production (and ultra light shale 'oil' would not have been considered oil).

There was no real enhanced oil recovery.

Fact we have had to do all of the above- where the super giant oilfields are -so depleted-including Ghawar that they are in twilight days of producing by water flooding (in the middle of the desert) and require millions of gallons of water per well per day.

Resources found are nowhere near keeping up with resources used.

Before casting aside Peak Oil think about what Peak Oil Theory consisted of, and what made up world oil production at the time.

With 5,000,000 of shale per day costing more than it fetches, with tar sands bloody awful environmentally and even where shale oil really isn't something that a few years ago would even be considered crude oil?

The Saudi's can't turn the taps on.Leaked cables to the US show but then you can say what you like if you refuse to have depletion rates or reserves properly audited and you can say you export whatever you like to bolster it in the age of fake news. No coincidence that the U.S. also reduced its rules on auditing production, so it too can say it export whatever figure it sees fit.

But just take 5,000,000bopd off of current world production? Where would that production come from and what does the addition of that oil do to current oil prices?

[knackers] 05/3/2019 11:22

The shale industry may indeed be sacrificed by Trumponomics. His narrative and first interest (low fuel prices at all costs) doesn’t exactly chime with the needs and financial imperatives of the shale industry... Rock and a hard place indeed. Small wonder they call it tight oil!

At stable prices for Brent $60-65 upper limit $70, they’re in trouble MT/LT. Then again so will be expensive deep water, offshore projects. Irrespective of the gradual move to EVs oil is going to get expensive in the next 5-10 years as petrochemical demand continues to rise inexorably and conventional resources/finds become increasingly expensive and problematic/complex to exploit.

There could be a supply problem for the global economy right around the corner!

[charlieeee] 05/3/2019 11:03

That, of course, assumes that OPEC does not open the taps up to compensate.

They might well do that, to monetise their huge assets, given the long term possibility of the replacement of oil by other sources of fuel. That was reasoning given re the proposal to sell off part of Aramco and diversify the SA economy.

Oil pricing is cartel run (unusually, by the producers, not the market)and the rational assumption has to be that they will keep POO in the range that maximises profit and demand: too high, both kills off the economy and drives the alternative energy market.

I am in the camp that sees POO managed at the current level/mid 70s (unless some major event intervenes).

At those levels, AMER is highly profitable: JW, in one of those recent interviews talking about positive cash flow at the lower 20s (largely based on the excellent CPO-5 economics associated with light oil, high flow rates, lower lifting costs and wellhead sales etc.).

[sogoesit] 05/3/2019 11:02

Yes...Hmmmm indeed...
"Ponzi scheme" end date not known... cliff edge, "peak oil" (like never), gradual, not at all...???? Tell me when.

Is there any global spare capacity to take-up the slack when, if, it happens (bearing in mind OPEC, Russia restricting production and trying to "fight" the "Ponzi scheme" for last few years)?

[tyler durden1] 05/3/2019 10:41

sogoes

Shale is very relevant to Amerisur, because when the shale Ponzi scheme ends in tears as it will - price of oil goes where-when over 5million barrels of loss leading oil dries up.

[tom111] 05/3/2019 10:38

No news good news, just a matter of how much oil they have found imo

[xxnjr] 05/3/2019 10:37

Off topic - If you do the numbers, each of the 200000 homes uses 125000 gals/yr.
So much for the source ;-)

[sogoesit] 05/3/2019 09:06

I didn't know AMER was drilling the Bakken Shales.
In other news another mine dam burst in Brazil recently.
What to do?

[tyler durden1] 05/3/2019 09:01

BAKKEN RECORD PRODUCTION 2018: 25 Billion Gallons Of Wastewater

[paradores] 04/3/2019 18:34

Now that's how you 'play' the LS3 sands ;o) Las mejores de las suertes, amigos...

[lucyp00p] 04/3/2019 17:43

I think Rex was stake building up to 60p so that had an effect on the share price