Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[mister md] 15/12/2018 17:58

1 year high price of 22p could be achievable by year end ? Strong price action yesterday after short intra-day drop to close higher. If volume remains decent then hoping for another attempt at breaking 16p on Monday ...

[tradesmarter] 15/12/2018 17:39

Got a fair wack of these now, but for me this is still a steal and think 20-22p is where will will consolidate gains before moving towards my target for next year (say 18 months) of 32-36p....Longer term we could see higher. For those "on the sidelines" or looking for entry points on the break of 16p, we should "backtest" that area and then move quickly towards 20p is my best guess, to the downside I see 13.5/14p as being a heavy support area now and also a great area to add more weightings.

I still think the market hasn't even begun to properly price this in, but from a technical view there are soo many indicators, chart formations, turning moving averages, volume rise, gap, flags, cup n handle, wedge etc to confirm this is bullish, we need to clear 16p soon for the uber bull case to be alive.....

Orig chart with my 32-36p target

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Bullish falling wedge

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Gap support

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New uptrend

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Higher highs, higher lows confirmed, move ave on the UP

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To me 20-22p zone "where we should be already as a minimum......In short I think its dirt cheap below 22p and looking to get a "decent chunk" before we get there and hold for takeover etc

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Likely consolidate 20-22p (pause for breather)

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Still feel 32-36p is a "reasonable target expectation in the med term"

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[peteshone] 15/12/2018 17:28

Knackers, Llanos34 has taken five years development to get to 55kbopd , we maybe, may be, very lucky and get a faster development plan but ONGC are Indian and complex regarding their investment prioritisation and speed to action. The higher priority for AMER is to focus on developing the reserves, their EV will go up in line with the 2P not production. They are a little odd at size playing the full cycle game, the reality is their production should be all about generating cash to increase their asset value through exploration. They now have plenty, and OXY as an accelerating partner, so looking forward to 2019 being a year of transformation.

[knackers] 15/12/2018 16:42

Pete - I reckon you're in the ballpark with that ~200MM figure. It has all the hallmarks of a VERY high quality reservoir.

[knackers] 15/12/2018 16:33

I think too early yet Joto - a bopd of that order from the CPO5 block would IMO be conservative but just from Ind-1 [ahem...] well... I'd love to be proved wrong but v few precedents for that sort of pressure in this basin but....with such a wide bore and 200ft pay, you never know ;o)

If this is what we think it is I reckon CPO5 could easily be netting AMER 10,000+bopd within a year. And if OXY get cracking we could be then moving from 60p onwards and upwards. Plenty of prolific acreage to be opened up and value to be realised yet.

Interesting that in past assessments and presentations CPO5 was largely discounted as something of a fringe / non core asset. Oh well I guess you can't get 'em right all the time ;o) no substitute for letting the drill bit turn and drive the value.

Icing on the cake?
Would dearly love to see some more central PLAT and PUT activity now from AMER. As well as U & T, those elusive central N sands are definitely there as past drills have confirmed; it's just gonna take a bit more analysis and effort to open up. U & T sands are clearly prolific in PLAT but the needs to be treated with respect, no reason they shouldn't drill from the Pint pad in the coming weeks targeting all three zones. That said CPO5 appraisals are now likely to be top of the priority-pops!

Either way the stars seem to be aligning and possibly in spectacular fashion. What a turnaround, and just as Rex exits 'stage left'. Funny old game...

[peteshone] 15/12/2018 16:29

They are unlikely to get 20kbopd from this well, but could maybe get 10. Most likely I would expect somewhere in the range 6-10kbopd with 30% attributable to AMER. Additional wells could produce between Mariposa @3200bopd and Indico, so they could easily be producing 20kbopd from the CPO5 block by the end of 2019. That would effectively double AMERs production but is likely to be a higher multiple for their 2P reserves. The field could potentially hold 200MMboe plus , quadrupling AMERs reserves.

[peteshone] 15/12/2018 16:23

Oil was over $100 per barrel and everyone thought it would continue at that level, so even relatively low production companies were highly valued. Check EnQuest and PMO share price from the same 2014 period . Since then AMER has increased production and is about to significantly increase reserves so the EV is about to make a step change, but oil is back in the $50s at least temporarily. I think oil will see saw along for a while, it's the best way of putting shale producers out of business and may be deliberately being manipulated that way.

[jotoha2] 15/12/2018 14:32

Expect news that initial figures of around 20,000 bopd will be there next week , longer term target of 57p is very much nailed on with just that news.

[jpodtrading] 15/12/2018 12:47

When we were at 60p last time. How come? I wasn't invested then.. and I'm lazy! The current situation sounds transformational.

[knackers] 15/12/2018 11:55

Agree Drewster - and you can nail-on your (IMO) conservative CPO5 assessment following flow results from Ind-1. This is clearly a big field and in AMER one massively undervalued share - though of course, we all know why (cough!). Take a bow Rex.

Given Indico's 200ft+ net pay, should AMER achieve here anything close to those M-1 flow rates that alone would be hugely significant for this block, obv for production and reserves but also for general understanding of the field. Should Sol also come up trumps, a v big reassessment of CPO5 will be required. Not sure the penny has dropped, but firmly believe we're tantalisingly close to chalking up a high quality and very significant new play area. Premier league stuff.

FWIW clearly there was a pretty high [internal] CoS pinned on Indico-1, hence the giant rig, 10inch drill and final 7inch bore - and of course massive director buying ahead of results. No one's mucking about here...except p'haps poor old Rex.

As for Plat Pintadillo-1, yup, news could be imminent, but 'tis now something of a side-show. It'll flow but that's Plat, unspectacular p'haps but important steady base production - all adding to that solid platform on which to build some very serious value over the next 3 years. I'm increasingly coming to the view we'll see new highs poss 60p+ next year. I'm serious.

Can't wait for OXY to get cracking, be in no doubt they will be watching closely.

As for 60p next year, think that'll call for a curry night in town. GLA

[the drewster] 15/12/2018 11:33

The resource extends 5KM, and the next well intends to identify whether or not it extends a further 6KM south east... VERY exciting times.

CPO-5 (our 30%) in my view is worth more than the current EV (Mkt cap less cash) ... everything else is in for free.

[gersemi] 15/12/2018 10:55

'The Mariposa-1 well was drilled in May 2017 and is currently producing 3,200 bopd. Production has been stable for the past year, and Harrison tells us there has been no drop in well-head pressure ‘which would indicate it is a potentially substantial structure”.

He goes on to say: “If the Indico-1 well performs anything like that it would point to the fact the CPO-5 block could be very prospective and perhaps larger than we’d hoped for”

-

With OWC not located (LS3) does this mean that we could be sat on something which is in excess of what the market is currently attributing?

Will we continue to appraise further until OWC is confirmed which surely means the discovery must be larger?

[jpodtrading] 15/12/2018 10:54

I just wish I had the cash available yesterday to top up. Come on and give me my Christmas paycheck so I can put it all on AMER!

[wskill] 15/12/2018 10:26

We are due news on Pintadillo 1 flow testing

[moneylender] 15/12/2018 08:39

News Monday looking likely after Fridays recovery

[tyler durden1] 14/12/2018 19:48

someone asked about testing of Indico-1 and whether they had to wait. They don't. The tender went out for that in September 2018 so they must have been reasonably certain they would hit.

that was testing tools and completion for 2 wells in CPO-5, but more interesting was the tender in August for Sol-1 Aguila-1 and one contingent well in Block CPO-5.

I wonder if that is a contingent well now after Indico-1 result?

that would make 3 more wells in CPO-5

[jotoha2] 14/12/2018 19:12

Flow test in 5 days hopefully , then 18/20p for starters.

[bryet] 14/12/2018 17:41

Did well today imo to finish over 15p could be another good week coming up lths hang in there times are a changing.

[knackers] 14/12/2018 16:40

Well beggars can't be choosers ;o) still a solid reversal, which we haven't seen for donkeys! Speaks vols

Enjoy your weekend folks.

[juuunx2] 14/12/2018 16:27

Too many late sells as per

[boatman123] 14/12/2018 16:15

Would be a proper job ! If it did , can't see it though

[scottishfield] 14/12/2018 16:10

Yes, V impressive.

[mister md] 14/12/2018 16:09

excellent turnaround this afternoon, setting itself up for another attempt at 16p

[knackers] 14/12/2018 16:05

Thought I'd just pop-in for a peep.

That looks like a very tight book. Any late interest and this could easily pop!