Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[al101uk] 10/4/2017 10:28

My high and low lights:

"The Company has raised GBP81m and has significantly increased the market capitalisation, which currently stands at GBP273m."

They still can't resist it can they and that line still irritates the hell out of me.

These two paragraphs are very telling:

"The Remuneration Committee does not intend to make any option awards in 2017 except to a select number of Colombia based personnel"... "the Board confirms that it will again be voluntarily submitting the Remuneration Report to a shareholder vote at the AGM"

"By way of stock market communications and investor relations ('IR'), Chief Financial Officer Nick Harrison has responsibility for investor and analyst relations, modelling and clarity on guidance".... "the Company has put in place measures to improve its stock market communications. We are committed to more regular updates and post year end have started issuing monthly production and OBA volume export updates. The Company has appointed additional resource in the finance team to enable Nick Harrison to allocate more time to IR."

Not sure I like GC's finger pointing, but it's obvious the two issues are being taken seriously now.

NH, also appears to be answering investor concerns directly under the guise of updating:

"So, although important, the OBA is not everything"

Not sure what to make of this...

"The technical capacity of the transfer system is approximately 50,000 BOPD and the line has a currently installed export pump capacity of 18,000 BOPD. The Company is working diligently with Petroamazonas to resolve the restrictions in Ecuador in order to achieve a consistent throughput of 5,000 BOPD"

And this worries me:

"With the latest low cost acquisition, the Board considers the Company has sufficient running room to propel it through its target of 20,000 BOPD net by the end of 2019, given the diversity of opportunity."

What about all the production we sealed in due to it not being commercial to produce? When are we re-entering these wells and ramping up production that way. It seems such an easy fix, but we appear to be starting from scratch. In my opinion this needs clarification and isn't even mentioned.

[blackdown2] 10/4/2017 10:22

Al 101

Re the chairman's prose, an interesting expression at the end...'of immense benefit to shareholders' Whilst the usual pinch of salt rule applies, given the generally conservative nature of their RNS comments, this does appear to offer some hope for us PIs.

[paleje] 10/4/2017 09:54

Cantor reiterated 45p this morning.

[al101uk] 10/4/2017 09:39

Numbers worse than expected, but if I compare my thoughts from not so long ago to now, I'm more positive.

I'm happy to dismiss the Paraguay write off, this was acreage the old guard were banking on, but we're a very different beast from back then. The management have done what they needed to do to satisfy themselves that they aren't ignoring the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. It isn't a priority, we've known that for some time, so why allocate value to it on the balance sheet. It's a technicality and if at some point we do decide to allocate capital to it (and it's rewarded), it's value on the balance sheet will be written back.

I had them down for a $5 million loss (approximately), but, excluding Paraguay I was still out by circa $6 million, not disastrous, but a little disappointing.

Cash position is a little better than I expected, we appear to have maintained a position whereby we can chose to pump oil or not at our discretion and still fund all ongoing commitments comfortably.

The ongoing operations are all progressing well, the fear regarding the bottleneck is receding as it becomes clear that it certainly isn't a problem up to the 5K bopd I based my valuation on, anything over and above that for me is a bonus. There has been no indication that we have saturated the ability of the pipeline, so I'm looking forward to bigger peaks.

Not had time to do a deep dive on the chairmans prose, but the highlights and the numbers appear to confirm everything we already know, last year was cr*p, this year is looking like the inflection point.

As for shorting, I see it as opportunistic and technical rather than fundamental. A seller and very low PI interest, combined with holders who are obviously disillusioned, it's hardly a surprise there was a shorting opportunity and someone took it.

[brucie5] 10/4/2017 09:37

Well given the negativity here and the apparent fact of the share price going up rather than down (at time of writing)I have to conclude that it's been kitchen sinked and the chart has indeed bottomed. Let's see how this closes.

[fsawatcher] 10/4/2017 09:02

if you read the rns they aint savin any money goin thru pipeline until they hit 5000bopd+

nuther Gilesy boyo bit of information that goes without explanations

hows the pump station goin? 8 months on and they still done nuffin about it

[tsmith2] 10/4/2017 08:46

Let's see what brokers sayBut the pipeline is about to add $20mn to coffers just by reducing opex..POO much higher than last year and given geopolitical uncertainties..would argue that these were cheap at twice where we are

[moneylender] 10/4/2017 08:36

Blackdown, think you misunderstood my post. I am referring to Rex Harbour has stopped selling, the company won't be sold this year. The board have succumbed to his demands about options and salaries.

[blackdown2] 10/4/2017 08:22

ML

Interested in your statement but not sure how/why you have reached this conclusion. It seems to me that any sale is more likely later in the year once the proposed acquisitions have been approved by the Colombian authorities, and OBA rate issues have been, at least partly, resolved.

[oilandgas1] 10/4/2017 08:15

How the RNS should have read..

We are sorry that OBA was delivered several years late, but we are saving 12-15$ pb.

We are sorry we promised to target 7.2kbipd by end of dec16, now realising no we were never going to be able to do it and we thought we could do it by spr17. We now hope to maybe have 6-7kbopd by dec17!
We will spend all our current cash to generate an extra 1-2kbopd this year and some next year, but we will have near 20kbopd by 2019!

( lies , damn lies and or total incompetence)

We are sorry we did not properly communicate disappointing results in Paraguay,

OBA has been working for ages since 2016 but we cannot get more than 5kbopd through until pumping station issue resolved and we have a capacity of only 50kbopd, but we we forgot to mention only 18kbopd could be possible based on current OBA setup and investment, but only when we resolve the pumpingbissues.

We had some issues, OBA roda debottlenecking underway & Libelula-1 technical issues, and we
Igbo tell you in the future how they are progressing or if they are resolved.

Finally OBA throughout is over 5kbopd, well actually we managed to get 5008 through one day, but since then we are below 5kbopd.

We promise to do better in the future, but please just do not give us a hard time at the AGM 😉

[charlieeee] 10/4/2017 08:11

The loss largely book adjustments: pleased that the cash position has held up, as that is the buffer even when good results and improved margins fund the capex.

[moneylender] 10/4/2017 08:01

White flag has been hoisted by the board. Think we will see the selling has stopped now Rex has got his way.

[fsawatcher] 10/4/2017 07:59

shocker

report reads like a threat to shareholders

get rid of us and company will be in trubs

no it wont - it do very well coz colombians do biz with anyones as long as it good for them

they cant even hit 7000barrels in 2017

without last year placin they would have $10m in bank

it dont even look like they get pipeline discount until they pass 5k

what the f...?

heads gonna roll at agm coz management done nuffin for 2 years but take money themsleves

why ave admin costs gone up? whos pocket that gone in?

[francis55] 10/4/2017 07:59

Most of this we know already and with OBA at 5kbopd, Plan22 and reduction in opex im riding the storm today as no doubt smaller holders will sell.

[dave19w] 10/4/2017 07:57

This doesn't seem like bad news to me.. let the market decide. The real news is what 2017 will bring. They seem to have teed up nicely for a good one.

[foiledagain] 10/4/2017 07:56

as for the shorting, that would obviously happen if RH was selling and a good reason there should have been a holding announcement made at regular intervals as required, instead of Amerisur having to have their registrars confirm someone had sold shares.

Shorting would be OK if the selling continues, so its not surprising, but they could get very burned if it stops and the shares have found new owners in institutions or safe hands, as then covering will be a problem.

[tsmith2] 10/4/2017 07:56

Cash opex per barrel produced expected to reduce from approximately $26 to $15 once volumes reach 5,000 BOPD That's going to be worth an extra $20mn itself to us this year

[fadilz] 10/4/2017 07:54

2017 capital spend funded from cash flow if oil > $45.

next big news will be reserves implications of plat-22.

[bibdaddy] 10/4/2017 07:53

5000bopd last week cannot be a negative...I think this a positive RNS. We knew last year was going to make grim reading, however, signs so far this year are positive. An increasing throughput, increased drilling activity and a stonger BOD.

[rollthedice] 10/4/2017 07:52

@FoiledAgain I specifically stated that $45m cash was at period end and that no current cash figure was stated in RNS (as far as I can see) so not sure how I'm being mischievous!

Lack of production was relative to their stated targets, repeated in a number of corporate presentations in 2016.

[foiledagain] 10/4/2017 07:50

I read a different RNS.

In a year where there were unprecedented bankruptcies of oil companies small and large many of whom had to produce cashflow to service extraordinary levels of debt even in a deliberate Zero interest rate policy period, Amerisur decided NOT to produce oil at silly prices, as it had no debt to service and any pain would be felt by those who could be picked off by Amerisur at a time of their choosing.

Just take the oil price then and the oil price now, and convert that to the bottom line?

Planned Capex is fully funded.

You are being mischievous when remarking about a current cash position being in the RNS, because this RNS states quite clearly it is for the period to December 2016.

The 'renegotiation' of an unused debt facility is a non event, as its unused, and demonstrates the BoD have been prudent in not utilising it unless there was a must do deal...that's a bit different to having to renegotiate an existing debt arrangement that has used the funds, plus its an RBL based lending facility, and reserves have increased and are likely to increase further.

[rollthedice] 10/4/2017 07:49

I note also from table of shorted shares on share/prophets site that AMER have appeared for the first time I can recall so someone thinks AMER share price is too full...