Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[sji] 28/5/2019 20:21

The OBA throughput has actually decreased since AMER started receiving third party oil (10th May)! Only at AMER!!

[moneylender] 28/5/2019 20:07

Tommygriff, try this link

[tommygriff] 28/5/2019 18:01

Do you have the updated table ML?

[moneylender] 28/5/2019 17:52

Interesting that OBA throughput dropped a couple of days AFTER the AGM to a low of 3600 bopd and is currently on a total for the month of 105,000!

Edit: Month transit now 105,000, they have added another day!

[underhill2] 28/5/2019 16:02

Lets hope we see a realistic offer sooner than later. Us long termers deserve it for the years of broken promises and projections never met .

[tyler durden1] 28/5/2019 15:36

underhill

you will be leaving us shortly then (not this world).

I was going to sell at 20p but I am convinced this share price has been held underwater for so long that is the major reason for the share price and that will end.

Something mentioned is too true. Like GC you well we are all not getting any younger, but I suspect its foremost in GC's mind so never surprise me for a bid at way over the 35p target by Stifel as GC made it clear he already had in mind a price that he would not sell out under

[lucyp00p] 28/5/2019 15:32

I guess the Peel Hunt article finally persuaded GC to get the word out.

[underhill2] 28/5/2019 15:01

Of course you would expect positive broker reports from Stifel. They are the joint broker/advisor for Amerisur. We all want to see their share price target of 35p reached. The reality is it wont happen in the short term/medium term. Who knows what the long term will bring. Personally I would love to see and expect 10,000 bopd by the year end. But in reality its more likey to be around 7,000 bopd. I am of the opinion that with new dynamic Man gement we will be producing a lot more and meeting projections. I will continue to hold for the long term provided Im still around by then !. Like GC Im not getting any younger. Nevertheless if there was an offer over 20p I would be out of here !. Yes patience is required here but there is so long one can wait for the potential here to be realised.

[mad foetus] 28/5/2019 14:14

Good nite from Stifel, rather surprised we didn't get Director buying after AGM. As the note makes clear, just too damned cheap on whatever metrics you use

[moneylender] 28/5/2019 13:44

Stifel note today

Amerisur is a debt-free, stable cash generator producing oil from three fields across two licences onshore Colombia. The investment thesis is simple: recycle $35-45M of annual operating cash flow into a mixture of short and long-cycle exploration-led reinvestment opportunities. Here we provide an asset overview, summarise recent events and lay out our view of the trajectory of the business. It is intended principally for those new to the company rather than those already expert. While our financials have been tweaked, our target price and rating are unchanged.

Key Points
We see two reasons for the shares to re-rate on a 12-month view.

First, the easy bit: the undemanding valuation gives share price leverage should the company deliver on achievable production targets. It currently trades at 80% of our heavily risked Core NAV (Figure 17), vs the sector at 100%, and we think this gap would close if all 2019 targets were hit - something that we have reasonable confidence in. Key guidance is for 5-6 kb/d of production and organic capital spending within CF, c.$30-35M.
Secondly, and more contingent: its small size (c.$150M EV) gives valuation leverage to any exploration success. The CPO-5 licence is already in production but can grow significantly (Figure 1), while the southern Colombia exploration assets benefit from validation by a $93M farm-in from US super-independent Occidental, a long-established producer in country looking to replace 30 kb/d of net production from its declining Colombian asset base.
Importantly, we also believe that the exploration opportunity set is evergreen on a 3-5 year view, reducing the importance of any one well and taking some of the volatility out of the share price, we believe.

The right capital structure for the assets: Stable production and limited capital requirements at the existing asset base + no debt means broadly flat OpCF for 3-5 years, the majority of which can go into exploration rather than maintenance / debt financing. There's also the potential for small-scale returns to shareholders given annuity-like cashflows from midstream infrastructure, although these aren't yet in our model.
Manageable financial exposure: Three factors play into this: (1) very short time gaps between discovery and cash flow, especially in CPO-5, a matter of weeks; (2) low cost onshore environment, with wells typically $5-10M; and (3) sensible historical portfolio management, with $40M of costs defrayed via the Oxy farm-out and a 30% working interest held in CPO-5.
Abundant subsurface running room: Licences are geographically very large and there are multiple play types on offer. As such, both CPO-5 and the Putumayo portfolio look capable of occupying a multi-year work programme so we don't think the company will run out of prospects to drill.

Target price of 35p

[mad foetus] 28/5/2019 13:34

I know it is irrational, but whenever I read a post from someone who thinks they are being witty about charting or candlesticks I think that the share in question is obviously held by inexperienced punters who will learn the hard way. If you don't use charts what do you do: buy and hold for years, and hope?I bought on Friday, have misgivings but the chart indicates that bottom may be in and it looks cheap on fundamentals

[fsawatcher] 28/5/2019 11:50

nice yakimoto on the uterus over the fibbnarcho cheese cake

yum yum

citrona

[marnewton] 28/5/2019 07:56

Bullish Harami?

(Candlestick pattern.)

Came in on support, at the bottom of the descending channel, and on good volume.

May be worth a punt.

M

[underhill2] 27/5/2019 22:40

Thats your opinion. Most of the comments are just repeating the same info. You are of course entitled to your opinion if you think this info is all new. At the end of the day all this info is in the public domain. What cant be disputed is that the share price is very depressed and needs some excellent drill news to get it moving.

[laptop15] 27/5/2019 22:23

Its actually different information each time

[underhill2] 27/5/2019 21:26

Why do you keep posting the same information?. Its a waste of your time

[laptop15] 27/5/2019 21:19

https://twitter.com/laptop1515/status/1133059782217220101?s=19

[11_percent] 27/5/2019 20:56

sji,

They will tell you just before the next AGM.

[lauders] 27/5/2019 06:24

You will have to wait until tomorrow at the earliest sji. It is a bank holiday in the UK to the best of my knowledge. So a bit more patience which is the norm where AMER are concerned most days it would seem. One concern I have is that no news last time turned out to be a dry well so the longer it takes for news again the more worrying the outcome (i.e. no oil). Should be some news by now if they struck. Usually companies like to share good news sooner rather than later. That was my lesson from last time round!

[sji] 27/5/2019 05:22

Unless we get an update today about Platanillo-26 drilling, it should start to be worrying. Hoping for the best!

[lucyp00p] 26/5/2019 17:24

That's actually not true Bas. As long as everybody had the chance to vote, their decision not to do so counts just as much as those who bothered. There was no box on the ballot for "don't know, don't care, can't be bothered"

[sabre6] 26/5/2019 12:16

And I thought this was the Ameriser board

[tyler durden1] 26/5/2019 08:30

Bit of an old chestnut that one.

When have Uk elections been resolved by a proper majority vote?

the musings of bremoaners use anything to upturn the democratic wishes of a country.

The democracy we pride ourselves on in the UK is an illusion

Civil Service and Deep State allow us to vote allow us to think we have a say, but in reality we don't.

You only have to look at how many times they had to vote in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty...you vote until you end up with the results the overlords want, then claim that to be some sort of democracy