Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jonnycash1] 29/3/2017 09:30

That is possible in theory, but any offeror would be obliged to disclose their intentions early on in the proceedings (rules changed in 2011 requiring early disclosure of intentions) and you would expect the potential buyer to be quietly accumulating shares in the meanwhile. It would make more sense for them to simply buy him out. You cannot just roll up and buy a listed company, you need at least 15 - 20% of the firm before anybody will even take you seriously and there is no inkling of anybody out there building that sort of stake at present. I see the logic in driving down the price to swoop in and make an offer at a bargain price - but the reality is very different. The share would rocket on rumour, let alone a statement, of a bidder for the whole firm and if it then transpired the bidder had no real stake to start with...perhaps I am missing something here.

[blackdown2] 29/3/2017 09:09

J1

I am sure you are right. However, we have good reason to believe that a large holder is trying to force the board's hand - and not for the first time - the large holder's objective being to initiate a sale of the company. I don't believe that this holder wants to buy for itself.

[gtfcniles] 29/3/2017 08:32

It's worth remembering that a lower pound is better for AMER, should reflect in our EoY although production hasnt ramped up to where we want it as far as we know, the upside clearly there. RH selling clearly isn't helping, not sure if he is trying to force hand or actually wants out, with 80m shares left he clearly has control of the market, I would like to see amer considering buying him out with the cash reserves we have if thats what he wants, for a discount on share price 18p a share would be £14.4m... With him gone we could drip feed the shares (rather than dump) back into the market at a higher price giving them a decent return.

Just my view of course.

[jonnycash1] 29/3/2017 08:29

I am not sure everybody here understands how Market Makers work and how they will deal with a large buy or sell order. The order will get dealt with over a period of time and the larger deals will normally be off the book in the auction period and may not be reported to the market immediately. Market Makers will also accumulate stock themselves from time to time, particularly if they see a good opportunity.
If there is a big sell order going through on a small company, the order will get worked through as efficiently as possible. The broker acting as the sell agent is obliged to get the best price he can for his client, so there is never any attempt to try and force down the price by putting huge sell orders through consecutively, as this would be counter-productive. Where there are a a limited number of buyers and no cross trade can be done off the books, normally with a fund or institutional investor, then the continued selling will inevitably drive the price down as the order gets worked through.
There are also a number of alternative exchanges nowadays which do not report size or price action and this is where the majority of shares get shifted in what are called 'dark pools'; however, but it would seem unlikely that that would be relevant to a listed company of this size.
Watching the auctions and level 2 RNS is a not going to give you a full picture of what is really going on I am afraid. If the seller here is dumping 7 million shares then it will depress the price until the order has finished going through and filling that kind of order efficiently could take months from start to finish.
It's very irritating but not a huge concern in the long run.

[lucyp00p] 29/3/2017 08:21

Here's a story. Once upon a time Rex and Giles argued about share options. Rex complained that Giles and his mates were too greedy and when options for an incomplete project of questionable virtue were granted Rex had lost his patience. He told Giles he was going to play with new mates and would unload all his stock in such a way as to crush the share price and render earlier options awards worthless. Rex was old, rich and lonely, sustained only by spite and successfully executed his fiendish plan. Giles, not wishing to lose face, announced that he would forego future options, hoping to stop the Rexit, but nothing changed. In desperation he then went to the media and dropped the biggest hint possible that his company was open to a takeover. Still nothing happened to stop the bleeding. Finally, at the company agm, Giles resigned along with a few of his buddies who had seen their wealth disappear and were old, angry and confused.

[marnewton] 29/3/2017 08:00

Still the potential for a double bottom - no buy signals yet.

M

[foiledagain] 29/3/2017 07:37

Pure conjecture/paranoia/conspiracy theory:
Is it as it seems. Perhaps the two events go hand in hand.

Its not normally RH's style to offload if he is unhappy? The normal style would be a Boardroom shuffle and if that isn't agreed a takeover, and you do not do that by selling your shares.

One telling factor though is GC's own comments about options and about being open to a sale? White Knight hunting, or is it the expectation of a sale? At that time in my opinion he must have known RH was selling down.

[tonyrelaxes] 29/3/2017 00:05

Interesting comments today and very much in line with my own suspicions.
Here is part of a slightly redacted message I wrote to someone last Friday -

------------------------
"
The past week has been strange indeed, with suggestions of "goings on" in various camps.

I strongly suspect there is a huge spat being played out between the egos or desires of GC and RH.

I believe it was Daniel (Rex's Son) who was instrumental in forcing GC's recent and second retreat on the Options (an interesting aside is NH was not affected by this second retreat). They were possibly behind the first retreat about a year ago. GC probably would prefer there not to have been the press reports I have from the Metro and London Standard (even in Moscow I now have paper copies) - but he is thick skinned and possibly his ego was placated by the fairly prominent photos of him

Irrespective, that whole topic must be a humbling experience for GC and, as we know from bitter experiences (fortunately not mine), GC is either totally dismissive or totally spiteful and destructive to anyone in his way. Plus he is probably seeing his chances of a knighthood or similar 'gong' fast disappearing with this climbdown publicity coming shortly after criticism (and promotion out of harm's way!) within the ECB. Throw in for good measure a likely growing waryness by the Honours Committees towards businessmen (eg. Philip Green, Fred Goodwin, James Crosby).

Against that we have RH, who leads a reclusive lifestyle, keeps a low profile and shuns publicity. His motivation is purely money, not ego. But if he doesn't get his own way he likes to leave the game taking the ball away with him.

An interesting clash and interplay of personalities although not at all helpful to our own investments - or nerves!

Both parties have the resources, or access to them, to take AMER private at current SP, but would require some institutional backing of numbers to get this going.

XXXX confirmed to me at XXXX that there is institutional talk and support for change at the top. With that support, whichever side they may be on, the 'numbers' could allow the changes and/or going private to happen. The first I could support depending on the plan and candidates; the second I would certainly not be happy about.

This week we have seen one contestant playing the reserves figures card early and now a bid of them being updated more regularly. Followed in a very few days by the Year End Report. The other player announced a significant reduction in his holding (where did it go to?). And an share price that just shouldn't be anywhere near where it is. I'm now awaiting one or the other to play a trump card. Any suggestions of the player or the suit it comes from?
"
-------------------

That as Friday. Nothing so far this week has lessened my thoughts that we are caught up in the middle of these two peoples power struggle.

Hmmm....

[foiledagain] 28/3/2017 20:52

He must have been selling for quite a few months and Amerisur must have known for quite a few months. Love to have been a fly on the wall to hear whether it was acrimonious or just pastures anew for him.

[lucyp00p] 28/3/2017 20:36

He's been selling for a few months if I recall. It's certainly been widely discussed here. The directors haven't cashed in on his long term sabotage and frankly I doubt RH has any of them on speed dial any more.

[foiledagain] 28/3/2017 18:08

Lucy. Perhaps you should be asking when the BoD knew he was disposing. After all the last Board transactions were sells at a time when 'transformational news' was 'imminent'

[valentine] 28/3/2017 17:23

Egoes egoes trotts. Either egoes, or I Goes

[lucyp00p] 28/3/2017 17:21

Obviously when you hold nearly 150mm shares in a smallish company any exit strategy is going to move the market. We should all bare this in mind as we accumulate at these bargain prices. I am a little bit baffled that none of the bod has added more at these prices but perhaps they're waiting for Rex to blow himself out.

[trotting12] 28/3/2017 17:20

IT looks to me like rh is using his shares as a hammer to hit the bod ,,when they give in to his demands he will stop selling ,,who knows how many he has actually sold ,or just swapped about to make it look like sells ,,,this is not about Amer ,,it's egos and money ,,,,perhaps he's telling the bod don't you dare take any more options ,,or is he softening us up for a bid ?

[currypasty] 28/3/2017 17:09

thanks tony, and Charlie

[charlieeee] 28/3/2017 17:00

That looks quite accurate, Tony.

24.7m by Dec. 2008
63.3m by Dec. 2009
75.1m by Feb. 2010
83.7m by July 2011
91.3m by Mar. 2012
104.2 by June 2012
136.9 by Jan. 2014

Peaking, it would seem, at 148.5m some time between that and June 2016, when he had reduced to 107.5m

103.8 by Oct. 2016
83.0m by Mar. 2017

Given the substantial number that he accumulated at the lower prices, overall, he will not be selling at a loss (but it tied up capital for nearly 10 years).

To me, it makes no sense that someone disposes over quite a period of time, unless their objective is to ease themselves out and take as much money on the way as possible (perhaps adding pressure at AGM time out of spite).

He has been attempting to sell stealthily, ignoring notification thresh holds.

He has managed to offload the recent 20m on the back of the OBA announcement.

Obviously Plat 22 success might well attract further ii interest and speed up his exit, if that is his objective.

[lucyp00p] 28/3/2017 16:50

Don't hold your breath

[alamaison5] 28/3/2017 16:38

Did anyone watch the auction? Absolutely incredible. We were at 21.50p at some stage then over 250,000 turned up and we finished at 20.25p.
Blue day tomorrow. Seller must be cleared or near.

[tonyrelaxes] 28/3/2017 14:43

Curry.
I'm not sure when Rex first reported his holding but I am sure it was a little less than 10 years ago.

I have details in my UK flat because at the time I did an analysis of the initial RNS that reported various purchases in various family names/trusts. That showed a declaration should have been made some time (months?) earlier - but was not.

What I do see with what I have with me here, is an email I sent to a friend in mid February 2010 saying he "reported at the beginning of Feb that he had increased his holding to 75million shares - 9% (currently worth over £12M)"
The share price was then about 16p

[eddie_yates] 28/3/2017 14:08

It seemed odd to me too curry until someone suggested that he was maybe selling some of his vast holding to drive the price down before making a bid for the company.
Maybe the unprecedented volume of news released in the last 2 weeks or so is the boards attempt to counteract his suggested actions.

[bigwavedave] 28/3/2017 13:23

CURRY - the last time I remember RH buying was in late 2014 when the shares were in the mid 40s, so he has taken a hit with those. But what his average is/was, no idea.

[dayway123] 28/3/2017 13:16

Lots more shares are now being bought than he's of loading. So why is the share price at these levels?

[dayway123] 28/3/2017 13:06

It would be nice to see AMER buy some back as he's dumping them Maintaining a healthy share price