Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[sandeels] 04/12/2017 16:06

MM's trying to flush out recent buys!?

[timgw] 04/12/2017 11:11

Bit of a dive today. Maybe there is something that we do not know......

[sandeels] 01/12/2017 17:04

No news and still the price goes south, given the recent appointment and the backing of the Assurbayev family, ALTN isn't going to be liquidated. At 100 shares/£ this feels like free money for those prepared to wait...whatever the board decides to do!

[roguetreader] 30/11/2017 20:26

Agreed, I've also bought a few more today. But also have the thought 'is there something we don't know' sentiment. If there are no additional hidden issues that haven't been already aired here, then as you say, these are insanely cheap. However, have decided I'm Not buying any more until the update on Q4 and / or the financing.

[tightfist] 30/11/2017 17:14

Me too Jerry,A good intraday reversal on more volume than usual to form a double bottom. Hopefully that will steady the ship for a few weeks whilst awaiting the Q4 news......

[jerrypike] 30/11/2017 16:01

coulnt resist buying a few at these levels.....
Got to be insanely cheap....
Unless there is something we dont know!!!!

[roguetreader] 28/11/2017 10:08

Chrisdgb
Not much to say really. They have repaid what they said they would in the previous update. So the positive is that they are meeting their statements / promises, so far. AS ever the forward news position is opaque i.e. they are still looking to formalise their financing, which they said they would update us on in Q4 (i.e. anytime between now and 31/12/17. So it is patience, patience, patience.......where most shareholders seem to have lost theirs here, hence the share price
RT

[chrisdgb] 28/11/2017 09:14

Any debate on yesterday's announcement........??

[chrisdgb] 27/11/2017 08:05

Fair play.......!!

[sandeels] 24/11/2017 13:46

Roguetrader/Sloppyg
...'I just don't understand why they have struggled to pitch the project to institutions and raise funds quicker and more easily than they have to date.'

Agreed, I've just found this (don't remember seeing anything about it posted before) and wonder whether this might have anything to do with the apparent lack of direction and news in the last couple of years.

hxxp://www.inform.kz/en/famous-kazakhstani-businessman-dies-in-car-crash_a2738503

Aidar Assurbayev and his son are chairman and CEO of Altyn, Aidar's other son Baurzhan is referred to in the article abv as 'a famous Kazakhstani businessman and co-owner of Altyn Group Kazakhstan LLP' and was tragically killed in a car crash Jan 15.
That would've hit the family hard and might easily mean that their priorities have been elsewhere, particularly if Baurzhan was hands on at ALTN.
Is it too far fetched to think that attention is now being paid to this co again and that the recent appointment has been part of that process?
As for debt, I get the feeling (though haven't done much research) that the Assurbayev's guarantee to pcik up the shortfall if need be is solid (one article refers to them as 'gazillionaires'!).
So just maybe 2019 will be the year when ALTN comes good. Like you Rogue I'm very tempted on a risk/reward basis.
And no sooner said, looks like someone else is thinking along the same lines...5k buy and tempting to see a corner turned on the chart.

[sloppyg] 24/11/2017 11:29

....what does surprise me though was that nothing came of that state funded initiative that was supposed to include the potential for cheap finance.

Perhaps this is where our new man comes in......

[sloppyg] 24/11/2017 11:26

I think one of the issues might have been accuracy of cash flow forecasts from a debt servicing perspective.

Equity is pretty much out of the question at these prices given the resulting dilution.

Consequently reliant on debt. Any lender will see that AR have been propping the business up by servicing existing debt - EBRD loans etc. Cash flow projections have been poor to date with next to no cash generated from ops.

I guess any lender will want full guarantees from AR; which begs the question AR might as well bankroll this one themselves if they believe in the project. Perhaps that is where we are currently at or else development work will grind to a halt.

Tend to agree though as a pure risk/reward play this appears a fantastic opportunity imo

[roguetreader] 23/11/2017 18:19

Sandeels
I don't actually believe AF have any intent in selling up either (I was just flying a frustrated kite in my previous post). I just don't understand why they have struggled to pitch the project to institutions and raise funds quicker and more easily than they have to date. Having re-read the CPR from 2014 I'm tempted to buy a few more at these prices as the success v failure risk probability of a positive outcome is hard to beat at these prices IMO.

[sandeels] 23/11/2017 15:08

If there were a takeover planned wouldn't it make sense for the announcement of the appointment of Vladimir Schkolnik to be made afterwards rather than before?
He's a big cheese in Kaz:
...'From 1999 to 2000 – Minister of Energy, Industry and Trade of Kazakhstan; From 2000 to 2002 – Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Kazakhstan'
so clearly his appointment is designed to add credibility (with fringe benefits?) to the board. Why would management want to do that prior to a take over, thus making it seem less of a basket case than its recent performance would suggest?
Like others here agree, this co has so much potential...presenting a great opportunity for Af Res to tidy up via an in house takeover, at worst the lack of information may've been intended all along in order to let the price drift to its current ridiculous level. Which brings one back to the question of why the announcement of Vlad's appointment prior to a takeover? Seems out of keeping with existing news flow policy if a takeover is planned.

[kikilex] 23/11/2017 14:10

I also hope no takeover, i have been in this so long......

[chipperfrd] 23/11/2017 14:06

RT,
Ditto to all that!!

[roguetreader] 23/11/2017 13:17

Chrisdgb
To be honest a takeover is the last thing I would actually want to see. I may seem delusional given the history of this project (Hambledon, Goldbridges and Altyn), but I still see this as a potential 10 bagger or more given the resource and the fact all of the hard work is (or should be) almost done. 2p would give me a small profit but the potential is so much more!!
RT

[chrisdgb] 23/11/2017 08:23

Takeover at 2p would seem amicable.....

[vish65] 22/11/2017 15:13

The 55.0 million buy from last week and appointment to the board today suggests to me they are reaching the end of the financing arrangements.

[roguetreader] 22/11/2017 14:38

As a brief add on to the above I've taken a look at African Resources commitment to Altyn since buying their majority stake. By my reckoning their stake has cost them an approximate average of 2.61p per share since buying in, in 2012. Given todays share price of circa 1.25p they are heavily under water, so I don't think they will be looking to get out any time soon. However, their approach of minimising costs whilst they get the business on to a profitable footing looks to be somewhat of a balancing act as the operational delays would surely be curtailed if they had a stronger balance sheet to invest in to the business now and bring forward production of profitable ounces.
RT

[roguetreader] 21/11/2017 12:48

These appear to be priced to go bust, but with African Resources owning circa 70%, I just don't see it. At todays prices they currently have a market cap of approximately £27M. They have probable ore 'RESERVES' of 2.26M Oz that are included within the 2.67M Oz of Indicated Resources plus an additional 2.47M Inferred Resources sitting outside the current Mine Plan.

They are probably the worst company I've ever come across to date re communication / updates and clarity of forward planning. They did say in their June report that they would update in Q4 re the additional funding and plant purchases needed going forward. So here we are in Q4 and I'm not holding my breath.

BUT, as of the June 2017 report they are on the cusp of breaking even and becoming cash positive which if they manage to achieve makes the current share price look ridiculously cheap. So the worst case scenario that I anticipate over the next few quarters are they abandon the attempt stay public and African Resources look to take it private or sell on asa takeover to another buyer. If that were to happen the buyout would be significantly above 1.2p per share IMO.

EDIT:
Corrected school boy error above where I double counted the Reserves.

[chipperfrd] 13/11/2017 19:10

Ditto!

I continue to buy-in i.a.w. my 'staircase' discipline. But it would be good to get some of my cash back with some free-carried shares as it seems a very long time since that last occurred!
Chip

[roguetreader] 13/11/2017 16:14

SG

Agreed re representation of value given the last RNS, but the trade volumes are negligible and have been since June. I'm not sure that the Market is doing anything here, I think it is just a matter of total disinterest due to the lack of any coherent management communications plan.

Anyway I bought a few more as the underline story is compelling at these prices based on the probabilities of it either going bust or progressing. I still think the latter is the more likely but not a certainty, therefore have added in a small way.
RT

[sloppyg] 13/11/2017 12:29

1.18p to buy has to represent value if one assumes that financing will not be an issue.

Market is starting to price in failure in that respect however.

Find it hard to believe though that the owners would allow it to fail having come this far.........

[chrisdgb] 09/10/2017 08:35

Gold price still highly supportive of project, let us hope soon for financing news...........