Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[glavey] 24/10/2019 06:30

Time for another CPR.

[tightfist] 23/10/2019 15:51

There's no telling: 3.6m and 1.8m both at 0.5499p suggests there's some way to go yet - someone is desperate - or we have got it badly wrong.....

[leewink1] 23/10/2019 15:30

Hope so, bit quiet for now.

[mikro1] 23/10/2019 15:11

Bought some more today. If increase in production on track and gold remains at current price the p/e will be around 1 next year. Value should be discovered by the market soon

[leewink1] 23/10/2019 15:04

Tell ya what though, you're making quite the meal of this for it going down, maybe some buying interest may help it no ?

[tightfist] 23/10/2019 12:15

Yes, take a look at how SRB motored away from it's own overhang/trough in May/June and we can see what is possible. .What we need is steady, consistent PR backed by delivery of credible plans; SRB has a great track record, it's going to take quite some while if/when ALTN acquire a similar reputation ?.It's not rocket science - SRB have ~3x the ALTN percentage of my portfolio..... tightfist

[brasso3] 23/10/2019 11:46

The chart is forming a similar base to what happened in July/ August. Patience required now before a move towards 0.9p.

[jc2706] 23/10/2019 11:43

Which bodes well moving forwards but for my own calculations I prefer to be ultra cautious. I find it helps for companies such as Altyn otherwise you can get carried away on what might be and forget what has been. I doubt whether we will find out any time soon as I suspect that they will overlook the obvious marketing benefits of releasing improving production numbers.

[stockknobjockeyvanbookstino] 19/10/2019 09:45

They have access to ore body 11 at c 3.4 g/t

2019 grade is expected to average 2.41g/t with a range of a high 3.43g/t for ore body 11 to a low of 2.01 for ore bodies 3-8.

[jc2706] 18/10/2019 14:36

homebrewruss,

Yes, there is always the chance that they will improve on the July figures with the near term target of 40k tonnes per month. I thought that it was a little ambitious to suggest that this year but should be possible (and more) next year should the debt be appropriately utilised.

[leewink1] 18/10/2019 11:30

PMSL, another day wasted then Jammy, you really are the star here, have a good day then.

[homebrewruss] 18/10/2019 11:02

Also from the half year report:
'As a number of ore bodies are ready for production the additional equipment purchased recently will result in increasing production in H2 2019 and going forward'

I don't know if this means just to 29,000 per month (which was in the previous line of the report) or over and above that level in H2 - we can hope..

[jammydodger1] 18/10/2019 10:42

Donkey share this

[jc2706] 18/10/2019 09:41

My base line for H2 is approx. 8.8k oz considering the increased haulage. I have used the following:

1. 28k tonnes a month (the RNS was inconsistent in mentioning 28k and 29k tonnes of ore so I went for the lower)
2. Grade of 2g/t (about average for the last 2-3 years).
3. Recovery of 81.53% (the same as H1)

Based on this and using an average gold price of $1450/oz I get revenues of $12.77m. I do not have an up to date financial model so cannot say how this will translate into EBITDA/operating profit/cash generation. However, this is an uplift of $5.5m from H1 when all of those KPIs were positive so I would expect a significant improvement.

I could be somewhat more optimistic by using the following:

1. 29k tonnes a month
2. Grade of 2.25g/t (the ore bodies they are developing have a higher grade).
3. Recovery of 83.23% (the same as 2018)
4. Average gold price $1500/oz (Q3 was higher, Q4 projected to be lower)

This would result in production for H2 of about 10.5k oz and revenue of $15.75m, an increase of $8.5m on H1.

I do not expect the outcome to be as high as the more optimistic forecast. If I had to go with a number I would go with the following most likely outcome:

1. 28k tonnes a month
2. Grade of 2.1g/t (mix of higher and lower grade ore)
3. Recovery of 83% (the same as H1)
4. Average gold price $1475/oz (allows for a fall this quarter)

This would result in production for H2 of about 9.4k oz and revenue of $13.86m, an increase of $6.6m on H1.

[homebrewruss] 18/10/2019 08:55

Steve, I'm hoping they can continue (and improve upon) the production from July.
So 29,000 (tonnes ore) X 6 (months) X 2 (grammes per tonne) X .83 (recovery factor) / 31 (convert to oz) = 9317 ounces for H2.

Lots of unknowns though. Has monthly production increased (or decreased) further, will the ramp up involve any downtime, does colder weather affect the gold recovery?

[stevea171] 18/10/2019 08:17

TF and homebrew. Thanks for your comments on the map. I think we can say that Seki is indeed in the top left of the T-S map on the company's new web site.

What level of production are we expecting for Q3 and Q4?

If a slide presentation is put together to tie together plans, production and exploration I suppose that might include a better map as well. When was the last presentation?

[homebrewruss] 17/10/2019 14:01

stevea, I was looking at this myself the other day and couldn't work it out as I was looking for the Seki red dot on the larger map but looking again with fresh eyes I think you must be right and the red dot (and therefore Sekisovskye) is on the top left tip of the smaller (and larger) maps.

[tightfist] 17/10/2019 14:01

Hmm, I see what you mean. T-S seems to be about 15km East-West and 20km North-South. Seki is in the NW corner and the inset is about 2x. After that it all gets a little hazy.... will be better when I can look on a larger screen.Have ever tried any contact with the London office - any success? They (or their PR folk) must surely be going to play a bigger part in promoting the company?Cheers, Roger

[tightfist] 17/10/2019 13:49

Spending the loan of $17m will keep them busy for a while!

[jammydodger1] 17/10/2019 13:46

We could do with a low placing this will come soon

[stevea171] 17/10/2019 11:53

We could do with a decent map of Teren-Sai. The map on the new company web site is midget sized with lines all over and detail that is largely meaningless.



Am I right in thinking that Seki mine and processing plant are in the top left corner of the main map (Teren-Sai) and this area is repeated in the second map of postage stamp size?

Seki is said to be adjacent to the 200 sq km of Teren-Sai so this would fit that description with T-S extending in 3 directions - N,E, and S from Seki.
If this is the only map provided, where are the 15 targets mentioned in the CPR released this week and where is Area No 2 on the map, and where are the 2 of the 4 breccia bodies in Area 2 that are the subject of this new resource definition?

If Altyn were to provide a decent map with this required information it would be possible to see the proximity of Area 2 to Seki and what roads, towns exist in the area. This would be of use if open pit mining were to commence at Area 2 with the ore delivered to the Seki mill.