Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[ppvn] 10/10/2019 08:52

Lol. Dianne abbot maths - you got me.

For my next trick I'm going to actually say the figures look pretty decent imo?

Call it a realistic 50k oz. If they can control their costs to around $800 AISC with the POG where it stands that's $35mm p.a. - Not too shabby?

Apologies for my complete ignorance of this share - I bought in about a week ago on some very, very preliminary calcs (I.e. resource base vs. Market cap) and am just getting up to speed.

[littlepuppi7] 10/10/2019 08:12

A lot of these presumptions are based on a much lower gold price than we are now seeing.

[stockknobjockeyvanbookstino] 10/10/2019 07:54

Think you forgot the recovery rate at c83%

[bmnsa] 10/10/2019 07:54

Diane Abbott gets about a bit:)

[ppvn] 10/10/2019 07:44

Morning maths. Was dividing the 32g in an ounce by three (so I should have then used the 10.67 as the divisible on 800k).

Agree the 77k oz number, cheers.

[homebrewruss] 10/10/2019 07:39

Ppvn, where did you get 10.67 from?
An ounce of gold is about 31.1 grams so that would be more like 77k Oz per year at 3g/tonne

[ppvn] 10/10/2019 07:30

Hi Logan, please correct me if I'm wrong, but presumably that's why they are aiming to do 800k tpa.

800k x 3g per tonne = 2.4m grams

2.4m grams / 10.67 = 225k oz p.a.

Am I missing anything?

[bmnsa] 09/10/2019 23:28

Highland gold is on another thread.

[loganair] 09/10/2019 22:56

Listening to the CEO of another junior gold miner he said if mining less then 50,000oz of gold per year then need grades of 5-6g/t or more.

Only if mining more than 100,000 oz per year can mine gold below that grade.

Therefore ALTYN ore grade is far too low.

[sandeels] 09/10/2019 20:12

Private message sent

[sandeels] 09/10/2019 19:50

Chip, can I contact you outside here please?

[sandeels] 09/10/2019 19:48

Take your point Chip and believe that management are well aware of what is needed.

[stockknobjockeyvanbookstino] 09/10/2019 19:13

Only logical reason I can see for Seki CPR is the bank requiring it, as good a news as it was.The current debt exceeds market cap.

More interesting to add value will be Teren-Sai.

Still massively under valued though, the new CPR does provide significant value should the mine be put on the market............

[chipperfrd] 09/10/2019 18:45

Sandeels,

Herbert had nothing to do with production, he is a finance man but obviously failed to bring anything to the table in that respect.

Ken Crichton was a non-exec with mining experience but he left them in early 2016 which was a shame IMV.

[sandeels] 09/10/2019 18:07

Interesting posts, thanks all.
Kazakhstan is second only to Russia amongst post Soviet States in terms of mining and mineral output, so finding machinery and workforce shouldn't be too hard. What might be more of a challenge is finding the right person to lead the production team, clearly something management have failed to do so far, culminating in Herbert going without explanation, just when things were getting interesting. What's needed is someone with a well-proven track record, capable of managing the locals, prepared to live/work in Kazakhstan and who can plan, execute and deliver on time and within budget.
If they can pull that one off, altn will finally have it's day but not until.

[jc2706] 09/10/2019 17:03

Q3 2019. :-)

[littlepuppi7] 09/10/2019 16:25

Any ideas when the next CPR will land?

[run12] 09/10/2019 12:49

Hi Stonefold, homebrewruss and tightfist

I worked on a project some years back transporting crushed and graded ore from a quarry to a quayside - about 10km each way - European based so admittedly the roads were good. We managed one 30Te truck delivery every 3-4 mins over a 16hr working day, 6 days a week for a year.

It can be done, just needs a lot of trucks.

[homebrewruss] 09/10/2019 12:38

Thanks tightfist and Stonefold.
I've been reading back through previous news.
The 2017 final report ( released at the end of April 2018 suggests the processing plant was overhauled then so should be in good condition but there might be some teething issues with increasing production.

Hopefully as you suggest they mainly need more trucks and drilling equipment (which should be fairly easy to deploy) and they can start getting towards 60,000t - 70,000t per month sometime next year and 30,000t + per month this year.

[stonefold] 09/10/2019 12:08

homebrewruss,


I would say the main limitation is trucks.
For a very over simplified and incorrect example (the actual distances, speeds, loading weights and working hours are different):

If a truck delivering ore from the mine to the mill, travels at 5Km per hour over a round trip of 5Km, then it can do 1 trip per hour.
Ignoring loading/unloading time and driver breaks, refuelling, maintenance, breakdowns and bad weather stoppage, if it works a 10 hour day then it can do 10 trips.
Though the trucks are rated at 30t, say for safety working on an incline they only carry 25t of ore per trip.
Then one truck can deliver:
250t per day
7,500t per month
91,250t per year.

Staff should be less of a problem as they have started outsourcing it.


Other limitations are:


The precision of the u/g ore body extraction tools/method.
If the drills and cutters and ore moving tools are big, crude and clumsy then a fair quantity of unwanted background rock is also going to be taken out, diluting the grade sent for processing.


The milling plant could be upgraded to improve the recovery rate from 80% to 90%, if the volume passing through it is large enough to justify the cost.


The material currently going to tailings dams could be run through a paste plant and returned to the mine, reducing risk and decommission issues.


If the Teren-Sai CPR suggests that it would be commercial, then they would need to submit and get approval for a plan to operate it initially as an open pit.

They have extracted 500 t of test ore from Teren-Sai and put it through their existing processing plant next to the mine. So they would have a rough estimate of cost of transporting it.
The shorter the route the less fuel used, which might justify constructing an access road, which would need permission.

I guess that the Teren-Sai target is west of the A10 road, somewhere around 2.5 to 3.5Km NW of the existing processing plant, from looking at the satellite image.



They have experience previously of running an open pit operation on Sekisovskoye.
They might still have some of the equipment used for that including 15t trucks, but they might require refurbishment.
If it is cheaper to produce ore from the open pit, they could temporarily borrow equipment from the mine.
Otherwise they would have to buy ore handling equipment.


All of the limitations can be resolved on small step by step bases as funds become available, each leading to greater overall profit.

[tightfist] 09/10/2019 12:06

Hi HB,As I see it ALTN have been constrained for the last three years as (1) the existing mine equipment was increasingly knackered/unserviceable (and possibly unsuited to U/G mining?) (2) the family/AR were trying to negotiate an acceptable (to them) loan package (3) potential lenders were unconvinced about effective deployment of Capex.In the last three months all these constraints have been dimming, hence the sp/BB/volume excitement. Whether they can do (3) in volume remains to be seen - and the downstream mill/process facility has not been tested in anger either.....For me the first CPR is welcome, however, the 2014 report already stood us in good stead.Cheers, tightfist

[chipperfrd] 09/10/2019 10:26

Glavey,

Actually I have been frustrated by the failure to deliver on the 2014 technical report which was already more than adequate to demonstrate the investment case, so questioned why another CPR was necessary for Seki.

However, the new one has moved most of the Indicated resource into the Measured category (hence the improvement in Reserves to Proven rather than Probable) and the overall uplift in Reserves is clearly welcome.

I did feel uneasy about the drop in cutoff to 1.5g/t. But using the modification factors quoted in the report and checking against the costs (Processing, Selling, G&A, Sustaining, etc) in the Deloitte report, I could calculate that breakeven did indeed occur at a grade of 1.5g/t.

Gold price has moved up significantly since the US$1,280/oz used for their Reserve estimates so they have an improved cushion for their margins at the 3.61 head grade - so all to the better.

AR have spent c. US$75m of their cash on this project (incl Kara) so they are well out of the money and have every incentive to finally get production up towards their original target of 100koz pa from Seki. If they can start to generate free cash flow then expansion of the plant has to be a priority in order to make economic sense of their large resource base and to eventually encompass the Kara field (c. 9m oz).
Chip

[chipperfrd] 09/10/2019 09:53

haveapunt1,

You are missing my point. The 'AT' trades represent both a buy and a sell whereas the 'O' trades are either a buy or a sell through the market maker.

Yesterday c. 17m trades went through the order book as 'AT'. 7 at 0.6, 5 at 0.75, 1 at 0.82 and 30 at 0.7. Hence there was effectively an iceberg at 0.7 which was chipped away at through most of the day.

So far in October, there have been over 32m shares changing hands through the order book.

Chip

[homebrewruss] 09/10/2019 09:48

Sorry for my ignorance but does anyone know what the constraints are on ALTYN ramping up production (assuming they have the funds)?
Is it mainly a question of staff and equipment to dig up/transport more ore?

I note from the website timeline that the processing plant has 'capacity of 850,000 tonnes of ore per annum'.

[stevea171] 09/10/2019 09:38

Next news from Altyn should be another CPR this time on the near by deposit of Teren-Sai that was also due for release in Q3. This should provide new information on the size of the deposit and whether it can be open cast mined with processing at the ALTN mill.

From the Interim Report: Teren-Sai fields (formerly known as Karasuyskoye).

"Exploration work at Teren-Sai ore fields continued in line with the development plans. Development has been intensified at two sites which have been identified as having potential for the extraction of ore at a low cost, within the contract licence area.

Positive results were obtained from the test samples taken, and the detailed exploration drilling and trenching combined together with the historical data is being used as the basis for an independent Competent Persons Report (CPR), the results of which are expected in Q32019."