Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[brasso3] 27/9/2019 15:12

3m buy earlier at 0.67p seems to have sparked things off.

I would guess CPR on monday morning at 7am.

40m traded so far today.

[homebrewruss] 27/9/2019 15:09

Interesting, 0.84p to buy at the moment for only 10000 shares..
Market makers expecting some news?

[excellance] 27/9/2019 14:59

Seems to me that the recent peculiar price action, with hidden trades at 0.60p may be something to do with the recent fund raising on fantastic terms.

Has someone been transferring shares to our lender or facilitator of the loan?

[chrisis33] 27/9/2019 14:31

Lots of trades through today - if there's an overhang then these buys must be eating in to it?

[tightfist] 27/9/2019 14:12

Hi JC,I agree, after the last few years they need to earn some credibility, and it will take considerable time and consistency. However, IMO the omens are looking better than for a long while. Whether we can get back to 3p, let alone beyond, is to be seen!Cheers, tightfist

[stevea171] 27/9/2019 11:35

Tightfist.In the latest half year report 3 of the family are still on the board.
Kanat Assaubayev, Chairman
Aidar Assaubayev, CEO
Sanzhar Assaubayev, Executive director
Kanat and Aidar are both long serving in their positions as far as I can make out and probably Sanzhar as well.

I believe the parcel of shares the family bought was an early conversion of company bonds at the 3p exercise price which was way above the share price at the time. It seems they wanted to support the company in this way at the time.

[jc2706] 27/9/2019 11:26

Tightfist,

I agree that the prospects of them looking to build a much larger operation are likely given the quote from the 2014 CPR (which had completely passed me by or I have forgotten about). But we all need to see them build the production levels in the short term, establish some stability, generate cash, start hitting targets and communicate more effectively with the shareholders before we can look optimistically forwards to a much larger operation. Baby steps.

[vish65] 27/9/2019 11:25

I see the bulk of capex for this year and next is again ore handling. Based on the delivery in July of the hauler and truck via the March $1 million loan it gives a lead time of 4 months. So if new loan monies arrive about now , delivery and commission around late Jan/Feb. Until then, it will give them a nice ramp up and consolidation period for the July tonnage levels.

[stevea171] 27/9/2019 11:20

Stoppyg. You may be right about their total cash cost being the equivalent of AISC but why not declare this to remove any doubt?

H1 total cash costs were $1015 on production of only 5,561 oz. If H2 production is 10-15,000 oz as I would expect then costs should reduce substantially. Probably way below $900 which would give gross profit of $600 oz - $6.6 million on 11,000 oz or $9 million on 15,000 oz.

[tightfist] 27/9/2019 11:08

Hi Steve,What have they been doing? I think they have possibly been regaining their composure; IIRC one of the family (the CEO?) was killed in a car crash some while ago. They went underground but obviously without the necessary Capex. Accessing the loan has taken two plus years; agreeing terms seems to have been traumatic, EVENTUALLY achieving 6% (and reported on this BB to be unsecured) seems miraculous?Along the way they bought a parcel of shares at 3p, IIRC. I think the "dilution" is AR/family increasing their holding to 69%? So they have an overdose of skin-in-the-game, but presumably wish to keep the LSE Main Board listing.Intriguing! Cheers, tightfist

[sloppyg] 27/9/2019 10:34

On the AISC, I think they use total cash cost of production as a proxy for this.

In the AR, they quote 2 measures: i)operating cash cost of prodcution and ii) total cash cost of production. The latter includes administrative costs so in my mind that is fully loaded costs equivalent to AISC ?

In the interims to H119 it was just over $1,000 per oz i recall so a healthy margin at present with further efficiencies expected

[tightfist] 27/9/2019 10:24

My guess is that the younger family members would be quite happy for AR to retain both sites and their 69% holding and undertake steady organic growth over the next couple of decades! How they grow their operational competences would then be the key question.

[stevea171] 27/9/2019 10:21

Tightfist, Stoppyg. Agree about the company not meeting targets so will this year or next year be any different?
It's hard to understand what they've been doing since the mining operation moved underground around 2014.For now they have a fair wind behind them with the $17 million bank loan and $1500 gold price that could move to $2000 in the coming months.

I expect NPV will be updated when the CPR comes out. Next week? Re costs it would be helpful if they would publish AISC as well as the cash costs which are largely meaningless and most companies these days provide AISC.

[tightfist] 27/9/2019 10:11

Hi JC,IMO there are several promising signs that they are looking to create a substantially larger operation. I talked F2F with a VSA rep. in April 2017 and gained the impression something imminent was afoot - then we had the prolonged funding famine which has finally been thawed.Steve has just summarised the fundamental info but the plan is to expand and fund the operations is largely conjecture (aka wishful thinking?) at this point, but the they are making some interesting first steps and IMO you can reasonably expect it does NOT include massive dilution at close to today's share price I echo Sandeels thoughts about operations management. It would be good if they choose to send a team to visit London and present to PI's in due course.A very interesting proposition! tightfist

[homebrewruss] 27/9/2019 10:10

Brasso was just thinking the same thing, some kind of JV would be great but as you say, not that likely.

[brasso3] 27/9/2019 10:08

As per the earlier post it would be a dream come true if the AAZ team got involved with these assets. I think it is very unlikely though.

[sloppyg] 27/9/2019 10:02

Steve - I think you will find the NPV at $1,500 POG is bigger than $305m as its an uplift in Revenue but no change in cost. Something like 60% increase in NPV therefore I reckon....

The issue here is the numbers have always looked attractive on paper but failure to hit a single forecast has sort of made it a meaningless exercise.....hopefully this time it is different as there is no doubt the potential is quite staggering !

[fd peter] 27/9/2019 09:14

I'm hoping they will get investment and expertise from Anglo Asian, who have said they are negotiating 3 potential acquisitions/opportunities in the region

[sandeels] 27/9/2019 09:01

It'd be helpful to know who will be managing on site development now that Neil Herbert has gone and how they plan to succeed where previous managers have failed. After so long in the doldrums they'll need to bring in someone with a proven track record and ability to take this from where we are to 100k oz pa and beyond.

[jc2706] 27/9/2019 08:48

A 400k oz per year operation would take a substantial investment and a fair amount of time or rely on internal cash flows and take a lot longer. The resultant company would, I suspect, be worth north of $1bn but, like you, I would like to see them get to 20k oz first, 50k oz next and to reach the long heralded target of 100k oz.

[vish65] 27/9/2019 08:31

The 2014 CPR presentation mentions a combined output ( T/S + seki) of 400,000 oz !

Great stuff but getting past 20,000 oz will do me at the moment.

[jc2706] 27/9/2019 08:10

I confess that the announcement around a CPR for Sekisovskoye took me by surprise, mainly because it was unclear what they would be updating. Given the level of current and target production there are enough reserves to support the operation for a number of years so conversion of resources to reserves at this stage would seem unnecessary. Equally, the level of resources is sufficient to maintain the reserves, with the necessary drilling, for a number of further years so conversion of the exploration target (an additional 3m+ oz but deeper) would appear unnecessary.

UNLESS, as you point out the objective is to set the scene for a much larger operation. This would also be somewhat surprising given the fact that they are so far away from producing the current target level.

So I await with interest to find out exactly what they are doing and why!