Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 06/9/2019 12:10

Just to be clear - the above estimates are for Seki U/G alone. There is nothing included for Kara.

Also, I have just rounded a few significant numbers from a much bigger sheet so the above numbers won't simply add - if you see what I mean. I was just trying to keep that little table as simple as possible.
Chip

[chipperfrd] 06/9/2019 11:57

A bit 'tongue in cheek' (as these forward estimations tend to be) but here are some of the metrics from my cashflow analysis that I based on the Deloitte CPR which originally started from 2016.

So moving forward to current and making year 0 2019 instead of the original 2016 I get the following (rounded) estimations - assuming company delivery of course!!:


Year 2019 2020 2021 2022ROM Tonnes 150k 500k 650k 850kGold Rcvd 15k 50k 72k 101kRevenue 19m 72m 104m 147mOpCosts 9m 29m 37m 49mCAPEX 9m 16m 11m 19mPost Tax CF -0.5m 21m 42m 57mAt a 9.3% discount rate I get an after tax NPV of US$369m at 1500/oz PoG over a 19 year LoM.


Chip

[tightfist] 06/9/2019 11:18

Thanks Vish, your reasoning makes a lot of sense even it has taken a long long time to potentially gather pace. I'll take a look at the 2014 CPR to satisfy my curiosity, whilst the 2019 CPR is being penned! Probably puts Chip's posted figures into perspective too.

[vish65] 06/9/2019 11:06

Tightfist - looking at the 2014 seki CPR on the website the T-S (kara) slide mentions giving Altyn the opportunity or potential to go to 400 oz production . I believe the expectation was to develop into a far larger gold producer hence the LSE listing. . Things actually ended up stagnating for 5 years. (Until now ?)

[sandeels] 06/9/2019 10:49

I've emailed Rajinder Singh to see what plans there are for regular updates and good communication with investors from here on. All cals have gone unanswered for a long time so let's hope, as RT says, that this time will be different.

[tightfist] 06/9/2019 10:06

The link in post #613 made me very thoughtful. Rather than awaiting PoG have the family been waiting for a time to make a BIG impact with the rising tailwind of the Kazakhstan economy? (PS: For a cash-strapped company there must also be good reason for an LSE rather than AIM London listing?)

[tightfist] 06/9/2019 10:00

My impression is that they run a pretty tight ship; reminds me of the saying (Nobel - Rutherford?) "we haven't got money, so we need to get creative".Hopefully this ethos will continue once they finally(!) get their hands on some decent capital - the first two machine purchases/implementations are possibly the prospective lenders proof statement?.Also, the CPR in respect of T-S (Kara) is particularly eagerly awaited.

[vish65] 06/9/2019 09:13

RSI technicala already put this as overbought. Beware of the sell on news brigade short term .

If this is to maintain a trend (upwards hopefully !) management must surely release Qtrly updates to keep the market informed and demonstrate they can achieve consistency aswell as improvements in operational performance.

lets hope todays Rns points to better communication generally

[vish65] 06/9/2019 08:55

Todays RNS again eludes to the point management have been on a 'go slow' waiting for the right moment for the gold price to move before hitting all the buttons to make things happen .

Altyn may have been lacking in operations ,communications and finance , but there shouldn't be a lack management motivation now.

[jc2706] 06/9/2019 08:39

I believe that the new website is already available on what looks like a test URL. Currently the content is mainly old stuff but you can clearly see the intended structure:

hxxp://altynuk.tilda.ws/

[roguetreader] 06/9/2019 08:33

- Two new CPRs
- A new website
Promises the start of a new era? All we need now is the confirmation of the funding and the share price could really move in the short term regardless of any further production news.

[wrighty46] 06/9/2019 07:56

This is excellent news and Imo the company really think they are going to kick on and have plenty of news and information to fill up a new website and keep shareholders up to date and engaged. The turnaround continues. GLA

[bo doodak] 06/9/2019 07:40

''Comments and suggestions are welcomed'' - a message of greater shareholder engagement

[chrisdgb] 06/9/2019 07:34

Wow, looks like even the company believe major change is on the way..........!!

[excellance] 06/9/2019 07:15

I've seen this before from companies who wish to unleash a pr campaign and want a website with much greater capacity to cope with multiple hits at the same time.

If it was merely an updated front page they wouldn't bother with an rns.

They'll be doing interviews and broker notes next.

[tightfist] 06/9/2019 07:13

Looks like a radical change of heart is on the way, and groundwork is being prepared. Great!

[stockknobjockeyvanbookstino] 06/9/2019 07:10

Excellent - new web site coming, greater engagement.

Looks like they are going for it properly.

[excellance] 06/9/2019 07:07

Strange they issue an rns for kust an upgraded website.

Presumably they expect a significant increase of interest and clicks.

[chrisis33] 05/9/2019 17:58

indeed ... looking forward to the CPR for Karasuyskoye in particular

[excellance] 05/9/2019 16:33

Excellent day.

[sandeels] 05/9/2019 15:52

Looking through old posts, found this from Chip on 3/4/17:

If they can reach gold production of c. 40koz over 2017 they will be getting quite close to the original Deloitte plan for the UG mine for Year #1. So that would indeed be very positive.

Y0 ~ 14.9Koz, Y1 ~ 49.9Koz, Y2 ~ 71.9Koz, Y3 ~ 101.4Koz, Y4 ~ 119.0Koz, etc, etc.

I find it interesting that they state 340 tonnes of silver for an exploration area on the Kara ore field. That equates to c. 11 Moz silver, but very unusual to get a resource estimation in tonnes rather than oz.

That would certainly be a useful addition to revenue. At US$18.5/oz silver those 340 tonnes would generate sales of c. US$202m. But surprising that there are not more results for gold as the original company estimates for gold deposits on Kara were pretty significant (c. 9Moz), presumably based on the historic drilling data.
Chip

If they can reach gold production of c. 40koz over 2017 they will be getting quite close to the original Deloitte plan for the UG mine for Year #1. So that would indeed be very positive.

Y0 ~ 14.9Koz, Y1 ~ 49.9Koz, Y2 ~ 71.9Koz, Y3 ~ 101.4Koz, Y4 ~ 119.0Koz, etc, etc.

I find it interesting that they state 340 tonnes of silver for an exploration area on the Kara ore field. That equates to c. 11 Moz silver, but very unusual to get a resource estimation in tonnes rather than oz.

That would certainly be a useful addition to revenue. At US$18.5/oz silver those 340 tonnes would generate sales of c. US$202m. But surprising that there are not more results for gold as the original company estimates for gold deposits on Kara were pretty significant (c. 9Moz), presumably based on the historic drilling data.
Chip

and this from chrisdgb's post of 28/6/17 about(typically non-specific)comments from the AGM:

In relation to Karasuyskoye area, the validation of the acquired geological data is continuing but the primary focus at the current time remains on Seki. Initial work undertaken at this site is encouraging, and I would remind shareholders this is a hidden gem for the future growth of the Company.

Roll on CPRs.

[glavey] 05/9/2019 15:07

This should throw off several million in the second half. Things only just begun.

[bo doodak] 05/9/2019 13:53

Doing a wee bit of research last night, came across this which might raise a smile from LTH. I'd forgotten what a blowbag Daffern was.

He discusses his Hambledon ''success'' at 20mins 50secs in

[shanur90] 05/9/2019 13:45

I've heard from alot of people that tsg and aaz holders are buying in here it's where the money is coming from off the back of recent great results. No brainer tbh as it was a very bullish turnaround rns

[wrighty46] 05/9/2019 13:11

Nice opening this up after a 3 hour drive today. The volume has been good past few weeks. Sellers will be thinner as we rise imo. 1p before news is definitely on the cards. Pog doing well will fuel here and the rise to 3p and beyond has only just begun. Holding now for longterm with a few on the side to trade should the opportunity come. GLA.