Altona Rare Earths Share Discussion Threads

[speedy] 17/1/2011 21:47

Samarium prices seem to be climbing faster than others. Anyone know why? +700% from Q2 2010!!

TT - identity theft ??? ;-)

[ih_235725] 17/1/2011 21:28

My nickname for some strange reason has been change to ih_235725 from Targetrighton. I sure as heck did not change it.

[ih_235725] 17/1/2011 21:25

nomde, Grade is a very significant factor in valuating deposits. Note 16.74% grade in Steenkampskraal equates to 167.4 kgs. at 28.13 per kg. Now the value per kg has been determined by the percentage distribution of the various rare earths within each deposit based on the rare earth pricing as of Dec. 30, 2010.
Now take Forte Energy the grade is 1.30% therefore the Forte Energy deposit has only 13 kgs. per ton of ore of rare earths although the value per kgs. is slightly higher than Steenkampskraal because of the difference in the percentage of distribution within that deposit. Yes I have done extensive research and you can find all the tables and charts at and you will recognize how I have determined the various valuations. You must refer to all four tables to understand whole concept.

[nomde] 17/1/2011 17:08

Targetrighton - You have obviously given this much study, but I am curious to know why, in your charts, VALUE 40% CONCENTRATE PER KILOGRAM does not become a straightforward multiplication for each value to arrive at the VALUE 40% CONCENTRATE PER TON OF ORE:

e.g.: $28.13 --> $4,709.30 (Steen')

and : $32.76 --> $425.83 (Forte)

Really intertested to know the reason for you figures.

Thanks for your efforts.

nomde

[heno614] 17/1/2011 12:13

Interesting article in todays Telegraph :

Car industry seeks to eliminate use of rare earth minerals.

Car giant Toyota, the largest seller of hybrid vehicles in the world, is developing a motor that doesn't need rare earth minerals, as China reduces the supply of these strategically important metals.

Metallic elements such as neodymium, terbium and dysprosium are used in vehicles and electronic devices and concerns are mounting that China, which supplies more than 90pc of the metals, may stop exporting them as early as 2012.

In the first half of 2011, China will cut exports by 35pc, adding to a 72pc reduction in 2010.

The car industry uses about 40pc of all rare earth metals, which are found in magnets in electric motors. The Japanese car giant reckons it is close to a breakthrough that will eliminate the need for rare earths.

The key is to use electromagnets which become magnetic when an current is passed through them. These "induction motors" are already used in household appliances such as blenders and juicers.

Toyota has tried to reduce its reliance on China. In January last year the company said it had invested in a lithium project with Australian group Orocobre in Argentina.

[ih_235725] 16/1/2011 23:31

Speedy, I am going to cover each of your comments in your Post #713 separately.
1. Your tables omit the effects of first mover advantage. IMHO, first to mine products allow the miner to choose where the ore is processed, and a massive advantage if they own the processing plant today.

Who outside of China will be the first producer of the so called short supply elements (Nd, Dy, Tb, Eu and Y) in sufficient quantities and in specifications of end-users. Maybe Lynas in the near term but will only produce 26 tons annually of those elements from their projected 20,000 ton production capacity according to the distribution percentage in their Mt. Weld deposit. That in no way is going to make a significant impact on the short supply issue. Their deposit will provide large tonnage of the LREO's which are projected to be in over supply by the time Lynas is in production. Lynas does not have a value added facility beyond their extraction and refining capability. Where is the big money after extraction and refining, IN THE VALUE ADDED FACILITIES which GWG currently has and in addition GWG will be in a position to produce 34 tons of the same elements with a production capacity of 2700 tons annually. LCM and GWTI will need only 18 tons of those elements annually and the surplus will be available on the open market.

[ih_235725] 16/1/2011 19:26

CHINESE YVAN VS. US DOLLAR
What impact will it have on Rare Earth Prices

[speedy] 16/1/2011 18:15

TT - Interesting tables. A few comments :
1. Your tables omit the effects of first mover advantage. IMHO, first to mine products allow the miner to
choose where the ore is processed, and a massive advantage if they own the processing plant today.
2. In the last six months light REO's have increased their price much more than HREO's. It seems
reasonable to me that a) HREO's could increase in price further, and b) when supply increases, LREO's
prices will fall more quickly than HREO's.
3. We move into unkown unknowns from perhaps 2015 onwards. Much of what happens then will be
determined by whether investors are prepared to support new mines and new processing plants, and
that's assuming the demand side merely grows a little. Most of the projects listed above will have their
first production, if any, around then. IMHO any new capital will seek excellent rates of return for
taking the risks and these will be significant costs of operation.
4. For 2016 and later, it seems reasonable to suppose that the prices for LREO's may drop to below
production costs i.e. to less than 60% of today's price if excess productive capacity is available.

Thanks for the link

[keya5000] 14/1/2011 22:30

Survival of the Fittest. Let us assume that prices of Rare Earth drop by 60%. How many companies will be able to survive at the current operating costs of mining and separation. Only several using the tables referred to in post #708 Here is an example of who survives and who drops by the way side:

-----------------
TT

In your view is the above just a stress test that you have conducted or a possible future event???

[targetrighton] 14/1/2011 19:42

Survival of the Fittest. Let us assume that prices of Rare Earth drop by 60%. How many companies will be able to survive at the current operating costs of mining and separation. Only several using the tables referred to in post #708 Here is an example of who survives and who drops by the way side:
STEENKAMPSKRAAL $1,883.72 less cost of processing $1,222.02 net value $660.72 per ton of ore processed
MOUNTAIN PASS $985.35 less cost of processing $678.90 net value $306.45 per ton of ore processed.
MT WELD $914.07 less cost of processing $591.30 net value $322.77 per ton of ore processed
ZANDHOPSDRIFT $533.97 less cost of processing $335.80 net value $198.17 per ton of ore processed
BEAR LODGE $414.65 less cost of processing $264.26 net value $150.29 per ton of ore processed
NOLANS BORE $332.32 less cost of processing $209.51 net value $122.84 per ton of ore processed
HOIDAS LAKE $301.90 less cost of processing $187.61 net value $114.29 per ton of ore processed
LOFDAL $228.53 less cost of processing $135.78 net value $92.75 per ton of ore processed
NECHALACHO $235.33 less cost of processing $132.86 net value $102.47 per ton of ore processed
STRANGE LAKE $168.58 less cost of processing $84.68 net value $83.90 per ton of ore processed
KVANEFJELD $123.26 less cost of processing $78.11 net value $45.15 per ton of ore processed
KUTESSAY II $69.34 less cost of processing $29.93 net value $39.41 per ton of ore processed
FORTE ENERGY $170.33 less cost of processing $94.90 net value $75.43 per ton of ore processed

[targetrighton] 14/1/2011 16:45

A healthy read and outlines what is takes to be a success in the REE industry. There are a few flaws in the article as commented by wwwater.

[targetrighton] 13/1/2011 19:44

ANOTHER INTERESTING METRIC I DEVELOPED

I have done extensive research on the cost of producing One kilogram of 40% concentrates or carbonates. Varying costs from $5.65 to $7.30 USD per kilogram are quoted. I have used the highest cost quoted of $7.30 to establish a very revealing metric. In numerous instances the transportation cost which is included in the $7.30 amounts to 8% to 11% of the total cost.
view at Scroll down to the bottom of the page

[wdurham] 11/1/2011 18:36

There is a great deal of inaccuracy in that last report.

For instance, Lynas is likely to be in production by the end of this year. And will be producing - in the teeth of the assertions in the previous report - separated and refined rare earth oxides for onward sale to metals/alloy producers. Great Western will follow in 2012 in South Africa, or perhaps early 2013, given how these things always slip. Great Western have a total mine-to-metal business model already in place, producing metals and alloys and powders on their own account to the manufacturers of a variety of rare earth derived products. Molycorp plan to be producing by 2012 also, and whilst they don't have mine-to-metal in place, have ambitions in that direction. Following on behind them are Avalon, Alkane, Ucore and a number of other advanced projects. If Greenland Minerals & Energy get the go-head to mine their uranium/REE project in Greenland the west's problems could be solved almost at one stroke, though it's some years down the line as yet.

It is true that the production of a mixed oxide concentrate will not be particularly profitable. And it will be less profitable if it is heavily slanted towards light rare earths. But these guys spearheading the Western revival in rare earth mining are very well aware of that - they don't have to be told by half-baked and under-informed analysts, who know very little about their industry, what their business model ought to be.

Sorry, this is just another half-informed analyst with half-informed opinions who appears to actually know every little about the current state of REE development projects in the west. What's more they seem to think that molybdenum is a rare earth element....having, presumably succumbed to the view that everything that ends in "...um" must be an REE.

[speedy] 11/1/2011 18:02

Rare Earth Investors Brace for Volatility
11:25a ET January 11, 2011 (Market Wire)

In recent months, Wall Street has begun to take notice of the Rare Earth Metals. Rare earth metals are the lifeblood of modern computers, batteries and alternative energies. For example, there are nearly ten pounds of the rare earth element lanthanum in every Toyota Prius engine. In addition, rare earth elements are vital to military technology. The Bedford Report examines the Rare Earth Elements Industry and provides research reports on Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP) and General Moly, Inc. (NYSE Amex: GMO). Access to the full company reports can be found at:

www.bedfordreport.com/2011-01-MCP

www.bedfordreport.com/2011-01-GMO

North American Rare Earth Miners have been getting a boost in recent weeks following a series of announcements from the Chinese government. In late December, China -- who currently produces about 97 percent of the global supply of rare earth minerals -- said it would cut its export quotas by 35 percent year-on-year for the first half of 2011. American rare earth miner, Molycorp's CEO Mark Smith, said that "Any reductions China makes in its 2011 exports versus 2010 levels will only exacerbate the global supply shortfall of rare earths we can expect in 2011."

China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu argues that "Other countries with rare earth resources should also develop and exploit their resources and jointly shoulder the responsibility for rare earth supply."

The Bedford Report releases regular market updates on the industrial metals sector so investors can stay ahead of the crowd and make the best investment decisions to maximize their returns. Take a few minutes to register with us free at www.bedfordreport.com and get exclusive access to our numerous analyst reports and industry newsletters.

In late 2010, the US Government made efforts to bring more of domestic awareness to rare earths as the US House of Representatives passed the Rare Earths and Critical Materials Revitalization Act of 2010, which supports the discovery and development of rare earth sites inside of the United States.

While the US is making efforts, it is very late to the party. In fact, most mines outside of China are still some time away from production. Additionally, there are no separation facilities for the all-important "heavy" rare earths outside of China. For this reason, many naysayers question how long the boom in North American Rare Earth companies can continue.
####
Disclosures etc omitted

[speedy] 11/1/2011 17:54

Rare Earths Shortage Becoming Problem For Refiners
3:33p ET January 7, 2011 (Dow Jones)
Rare Earths Shortage Becoming Problem For Refiners

By Ben Lefebvre
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--The skyrocketing cost of rare-earth metals coming out of China is pushing up the cost of gasoline production in the U.S., the latest sign of the wide-reaching impact of Beijing's decision to restrict exports of the minerals.
Prices for some of the chemicals refiners use to process gasoline have risen exponentially after China, which controls about 95% of the world's rare-earth supply, said it would slash exports of the metals by 35% in 2011. The increase could raise gasoline production costs by about a penny a gallon and potentially lead some refiners to cut back on fuel production, and is expected to become a topic in many refiners' earnings conference calls in the first quarter of 2011.
Rare earths, elements that go into high-tech batteries, television sets and military technology, are also used in the catalyst component of refiners' gasoline-making fluid catalytic cracking units, or FCCUs. Although rare earths account for only up to 4% of catalysts used in these units, their recent price increase has added as much as an extra 25% to catalyst costs, according to the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association, a group representing the sector.
The increase comes just as U.S. refiners were getting back on their feet financially after years of low demand and tight profit margins. Refiners such as Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) and Sunoco Inc. (SUN) sold some of their plants in 2010 to rid themselves of poor-performing assets.
"Any kind of increase, especially in today's markets and conditions, is significant," said NPRA President Charlie Drevna.
There are about 100 FCCUs amid the country's 150 refineries, ranging in capacity from more than 100,000 barrels of oil a day to less than 10,000. The typical 50,000 barrel-a-day FCCU uses an average of seven tons a day of catalyst to help remove impurities from what will become gasoline and diesel, with the increase in rare-earth prices costing its owner an extra $147,000 a month.
That would add about a penny to the production cost of each gallon of gasoline made--not enough to make the consumer notice, but enough to make some refiners think about scaling back production, analysts say. Adding to the cost is the U.S. drive for cleaner-burning gasoline and diesel, which requires refiners to use more catalysts.
Refiners acknowledged that catalyst costs were growing but declined to elaborate. Valero, which is the largest U.S. independent refiner and operates 12 FCCUs ranging in capacity from 24,000 to 100,000 barrels of oil a day, will probably address the issue during its fourth-quarter earnings conference call, company spokesman Bill Day said.
"Catalyst costs are something that Valero is monitoring closely," Day said.
Tesoro Corp. (TSO) said it has included the rising cost of rare earths into its 2011 budget but declined to say how much extra money it was paying for catalysts. The company, which runs five FCCUs, was seeking ways to mitigate the damage done to its bottom line, Tesoro spokesman Mike Marcy said.
"There may be ways to adjust catalyst blends to reduce the impact of cost increases," Marcy said.
How long rare-earth prices will continue to climb is in question as companies outside China hustle to make more of the metals available. U.S.-based Molycorp Inc. (MCP) said it plans to spend $531 million to mine and process rare earths from a Mojave desert mine that used to produce the material until it was shut in 2002. Lynas Corp. Ltd. (LYC), a rare-earth supplier based in Australia, said it plans to start mining rare earths from Mount Weld in western Australia for expected production in the third quarter of 2011.
Until those projects come online, rare-earth prices will likely continue to increase, however. Chemical companies, which supply catalysts to refiners, have started indexing the cost of their product to rare-earth price movements, said Ed Morrison, president of consulting firm Global Catalyst & Process Technology Management PLLC.
"They are passing the price on to the oil refiner," Morrison said.

-By Ben Lefebvre, Dow Jones Newswires; 713-547-9201; [e-mail]

[jimbowen30] 11/1/2011 15:43

Great Western up over 10%. I would be happy with Bryon's target ($1.15) by end of 2011, although we could see share price exceed this

[speedy] 11/1/2011 14:03

Some interesting comments here ... REE magnetic refrigeration? what next?

[speedy] 11/1/2011 10:53

Worsleybird - Comparing the ppm with Ucore, FTE's Neodyium is higher and Ytterbium is lower.
Also no mention of Yittrium in FTE results? It is too early to comment on good, fair etc, but IMHO the Neodyium
content is encouraging HTH.

[worsleybird] 11/1/2011 08:50

Hello all
could anyone take a stab at this mornings REE results from FTE RNS.
I would guess that the heavy REE are more important but have no idea on whether these ppm and % are good, fair etc.

[tomoslewis] 11/1/2011 08:22

I see that CRHL's associate Auxy listed Galaxy has updated the market on its 100% owned REE resource where initial drilling results show REEs of over 10%. I was not aware of this REE angle to CRHL's investment and an interesting addition to the Lithium, Tin and Coal.

[keya5000] 10/1/2011 21:37

Thanks Target.

My own thoughts are telling me its moved to quick but given the lack of 'quality' REE plays on the global markets and the fact Americans dont tend to look much further than the US you just dont know....

Out for now and will look at new entry point in the mid 30's.

Whats your end of year targets for GWG??

Kind Regards.

[targetrighton] 10/1/2011 21:22

keya5000, my opinion is in line with Jon Hykawy as per his analysis below.
If the link does not work go to click on the research tab, scroll down, accept the terms of use and then click on the latest report by Jon on MCP

[keya5000] 10/1/2011 19:10

Wendy/Targetrighton.

Whats your views on Molycorp long term, you are both massive fans of GWG and from reading your posts I can see why.

Held Molycorp from mid 20's up to 60$ and sold due to the fact I thought it moved to quick to fast.

Do you have any long term targets for MCP??

Also hold Avalon/Great West/Dacha & Quest. The trader in me keeps saying to take profit but they are part of my twenty year plan!!!