Altitude Share Discussion Threads

[pmaxwell1] 14/2/2017 14:04

I am holder, although have taken profits on 80% of my shares. To me this remains an exciting but clearly speculative play which can as easily go back down below 20p as above 300p.I would just like to make a couple of positive and negative points:
- What I like here is that they are building the business with internally generated funds presumably from the exhibition business so no frequent and dilutive placements or pie in the sky calls for funds. Lets hope that continues.
- Given they are using own funds the amounts invested to date are modest. This suggests likely low barriers of entry, others could relatively easily muscle in if it really does become viable. Some years ago I had some printing done for my company by Vistaprint (nemecards, letterheads etc). I recall at the time they offered me a free customised website with a lot of free artwork and functionality. Obviously Alt's offering is more sophisticated and integrated than this but there are others in this space.
- The distributor market is very fragmented with many very small players, it is also not clear what the underlying growth rate is of the market. The danger is that Alt's offering will only be of interest to distributors to generate incremental sales over and above what they already have without Alt. These might take time to materialise in any significant volumes depending on how the market grows overall so this might be a slow burner.
- I think the fact that MV sold about 500,000 shares some weeks ago is a negative and I sold down most of my shares when this happened. It looks like he was doing what many of us have done which is take advantage of the hype driven price rise. I don't like to see the main shareholder selling so early in a company's development.
- The latest RNS is silent on current trading. This suggests there is nothing much to say yet. Reading between the lines it looks like the drive to monetise the software with the existing distributors is now on. I think this is more important than adding new partners in the short term. They need to prove it can generate revenues. I think the outlook statement with the final results due in May will be the key and will probably hold my remaining shares until then. I might sell earlier if they come out with 'no real news' RNSs in the meantime.

[bestace] 14/2/2017 13:53

Paul Scott is spot on with that tweet, IMHO

[bpc10] 14/2/2017 13:30

From Paul Scott today:Altitude (ALT) - nice story stock, but no substance in today's update. Potentially interesting, if can deliver genuine growth. Am watching.

[webster32] 14/2/2017 12:40

Regarding the reaction to this morning’s statement, it’s worth a re-read of the RNS on the 14th June 2016, in which it makes clear: “the Agreement will not have an impact on the Group's results for the current year.”

It's also worth noting that the RNS went on to say:

Billy Dolan, Chief Executive of Aprinta Group, said, "We have had this vision for three years and have looked at every option to find a technology partner that not only understood the personalised product space in fine detail, but also had every element of the technology we needed to make this a success by accommodating a significant transition of the industry to an online model. The revenue share arrangement ensures we are all incentivised to deliver this solution to distributors in the USA's $22 billion market place.

"We have over half a million square feet of production space in Alexander City, Alabama alone, with additional facilities in Rochester, New York and Los Angeles, California giving us the largest capacity for screen printing in the USA. We also have plans to double this over the next 12 months by adding new equipment and upgrading existing machinery. There is no other company with the capacity to print, pack and ship 500,000 t-shirts and 500,000 pens from the same facility within two days."

[ihatemms] 14/2/2017 12:09

We're constantly being told how e-commerce is the future, the massive annual increase in mobile phones, tablet sales etc. and the tremendous and growing success of e-commerce companies. Obviously hiring Lobo and Gellan (with their previous pedigrees) should provide the e-commerce and branding strategy and together with Varley's knowledge of the industry - that should be a winning combination. I think now that all 3 of them are now in the same room we should start to see tangible results in the next few months. E commerce is the only way for companies to go if companies want to compete in the future - if these 3 can't deliver the desired results I doubt if few other companies can. I think Varley waited to get these guys on board to validate his proposed course of e-commerce actions and today's update is the result of that validation. Still waiting for the other 3 contracts - they should really propel the share price.

[sheep_herder] 14/2/2017 11:52

Yar, a fellow poster was kind enough to email it. My email is my username at outlook dot com.

[bestace] 14/2/2017 11:46

Sounds like you managed to get hold of the WHI broker note Sheep_Herder?

[melf] 14/2/2017 11:38

I don't think Sanjay and Gellan would have found their options packages very attractive if the WHI base case was the likely scenario.

[sheep_herder] 14/2/2017 11:30

I don't know why people are getting in a fuzz today. We know that 2016 doesn't have any contribution from the C2S business. There was nothing new in todays update.

One point I want to make about the market expectations. So far only WHI have initiated coverage and they clearly state that they are using a very conservative roll out in their DCF. In fact they give two DCF valuations in their note - the worst case and a much more reasonable 'higher update' scenario. BOTH of these only assume the current two deals that have been announced and we know from the company that they want to sign 3 more. So these numbers have the scope to increase by 150%.

The base case attributes a fair value of 32p and the higher uptake 272p. The base case only assumes that by end of 2018 only half of the distis have signed up, 3 sub sites are launched, and the average order is only $150.

You do the maths.

Speculative? Balls to that.

[stephen1946] 14/2/2017 11:10

This update is merely confirmation of what has been said previously and more to the point, confirms the astronimical forecasts by Sheep. 22.000 outlets confirmed etc etc, if each spend $500= zillions.
Whats missing? The money numbers, but they are not in Altitude gift to present to holders, YET.

HAPPY TO HOLD.

[melf] 14/2/2017 11:06

I'm a believer basically because they're not trying to sell anything - they are simply giving away a tool to help businesses run more efficiently. However,I'd be interested to hear anyone's views who doesn't think this is going to work and why.

[napoleon 14th] 14/2/2017 10:53

allstar - agreed.
No doubt about potential, but value = proof of concept, as in ebitda, eps, yield etc.
I still hold a few on 100%+ profit, so that's OK then!

[andrbea] 14/2/2017 10:50

a reminder of a post from Jan 27

bestace - 27 Jan 2017 - 01:20:19 -

I'll make no comment about historic share price movements; I consider that to be irrelevant and the gnashing of teeth over the last couple of days as pointless. However your comments about it being reasonable to expect some real numbers from the company and about making spreadsheets has prompted me to bash out the following, which has turned into a bit of a disquisition.

Over the years so many companies have been brought to the AIM market which had a good story and a seemingly credible management. With hindsight many of those companies turn out to be flops led by salesmen in shiny suits selling snake oil in the form of a story of jam tomorrow that never arrives, and whose talents lie in being able to string along investors while they extract as much personal benefit from mug punters as possible.

But sometimes the story is real and the directors are genuine and credible and the jam promised for tomorrow really does arrive, and I see it as my job as a private investor to try and sort the wheat from the chaff (excuse the mixing of food-based metaphors). For me, ALT is currently a stock with a good story with potential but not much more. When a story stock comes along I see it as imperative to take a dispassionate, critical view of the story and of management claims, to see whether it stacks up on a financial basis, having regard to the risks that may waylay a perfectly valid story before it has had a chance to deliver the jam.

A necessary part of that process in my book is to build a spreadsheet and put some pro forma numbers together to calculate revenue and profit projections into the future. Such spreadsheet models are never spot on accurate, but that’s not really the point. The aim is to get a feel for what is possible, and by setting out all the key inputs behind the business model it quickly becomes obvious where and how profits are sensitive to the key drivers and assumptions, and what is not so important.

For ALT, several different bases of calculation have been bandied around, i.e.:
- 0.25% of market = $60m profit to ALT (from yesterday's presentation –; SH post 1650)
- 1% of market = $156m revenue to ALT (ALT presentation to SCSW on 28 December –; see SH post 1063)
- $1bn sales = $100m contribution to ALT (email from MV to SH earlier this month –; see SH post 1087)

[allstar4eva] 14/2/2017 10:36

Bit of sanity returning

[andrbea] 14/2/2017 09:46

The business model is in place, as planned. Now it only takes a certain percentage of the end-customers to bite the cherry and then the model starts to yield. That has been the premise from the off. so everything is going to schedule. It's just a question of waiting now. Fall overdone, as they have not put a foot wrong IMO.

[frankwhite] 14/2/2017 09:20

This will get sold by short term investors who wanted numbers but only got 'marginally ahead'. Buys are already returning at this level, I wouldn't worry too much just ride it out, this is a 2+ year investment not 2+ months!

[insideryou] 14/2/2017 08:31

PI will be overjoyed.. Anyone got the swear box handy?

[allstar4eva] 14/2/2017 08:30

Short term traders certainly exist this am. Could be good going forwards having them out.

[allstar4eva] 14/2/2017 08:28

Marginally ahead of earnings that do not justify the current share price I guess people are now learning how 'speculative' shares behave. I am still positive here but i don't understand why people don't understand the difference between a speculative share and one that is justified by current earnings.

[sheep_herder] 14/2/2017 08:26

Only managed to get £65/pt on IG before they closed to buy orders.

[aishah] 14/2/2017 08:25

"marginally ahead of market expectations due to tight control of costs"

[essential] 14/2/2017 08:19

I guess "marginally ahead " is not good enough!!