Alpha Growth Share Discussion Threads

[801710245] 05/5/2021 19:41

Sadly Mick, I'm limited to giving you just the one tick-up.

[mick sturbs] 05/5/2021 19:40

“ My aim was to firstly admit I mis-judged the technical flows (conceding that I sold far too early) but emphasise that this proposition has to deliver results to support the (wilder) EPS ambitions. Also an institutional buyer I can assure you that the fee structure while attractive to ALGW is not competitive”

So you wanted to to just say, hi everyone I used to have some of these shares but ballsed up and sold way too early... oh and by the way the business you’re all still invested in is not going to work out ... give us a break smidge.

[smidge21] 05/5/2021 18:53

Hmm; interesting responses! Classic examples of desire for confirmation (and nothing else)

wasn't on to de-ramp. AS an actuary I am well aware of the details and if you think that the UK life assurance market functions on NHS data - well good luck. Do you understand what Club Vita is? (Post code specific CMI stats)

My aim was to firstly admit I mis-judged the technical flows (conceding that I sold far too early) but emphasise that this proposition has to deliver results to support the (wilder) EPS ambitions. Also an institutional buyer I can assure you that the fee structure while attractive to ALGW is not competitive

Finally, do your analysis on peer propositions rather than on ambitions. Screen the promotional materials looking beyond the fluff

Good luck. This as been interesting (and an insight into HE1?)

[801710245] 05/5/2021 17:57

Every village...

[gilesfitzh] 05/5/2021 17:56

So, according to his post of 15th February, he had sold by mid day therefore probably at 2.50p. Could have easily got 3x as much today. Ooops.

[7rademark] 05/5/2021 17:30

Never seen smidge before and very few posts on advfn, Hhmm. Paid a fiver for that one were you smidge.

[mick sturbs] 05/5/2021 16:54

Unlucky for selling too early but don’t come on here blatantly deramping. Muppet

[gilesfitzh] 05/5/2021 16:53

@smidge21: You are completely wrong.
The life settlement market is long established in the US and many States require Insurers to advise policyholders who contact them regarding cancellation or 'cashing in' of the secondary and tertiary market for policies.
Medical history in the US is a matter of record unlike with the NHS so actuaries have the information they need.
You need to do some actual research, try this:
hxxps://www.artemis.bm/news/life-settlements-forecast-for-double-digit-cagr-over-next-decade-conning/
and this rather older one:
hxxps://www.cfo.com/profiles/2016/04/life-settlements-cfo-eyes-vast-potential-market/

[smidge21] 05/5/2021 16:40

I've been outGamed on this (pun intentional) Bought as a 'what the hell' around the low, doubled or so and walked away. Thought done well; not!

But not until I'd scanned the space. Other established offerings have failed to deliver the promised returns over an extended period on decent i.e. institutional scale money. Having liaised with the company it is clear that the product promise is under-pinned but the belief that they will be able to buy assets (policies) well below the market rice on a persistent basis. Hmmm.

The assertion that they have good actuary is 'smoke'. Anyone who has ever costed life products knows that the basis is swamped by the loadings. Unless ALGW have a database akin to Club Vita (and beyond) and a long line of sucker clients this is an investment which in scale will fail to deliver over time. So the rally, which I chose to not to enjoy, is fine on a hope springs eternal basis but ultimately this this is not a durable growth business given the execution risks.

The perils of thinking too much.

[7rademark] 05/5/2021 16:25

Bids about to tick up.

[aimshares] 05/5/2021 16:09

Yes Giles defo agree with you, it will sky rocket if the RCF counterparty invests the full $100 million. 100% to current share price on news then multiples to share price when the news is digested.

[aimshares] 05/5/2021 15:20

14.8% up 8p Ask

[gilesfitzh] 05/5/2021 15:19

Personally I think the MMs keep a pretty flat position on ALGW which is why net buys of as little as 700k shares have moved the share price nearly 15% today alone.
This could literally sky rocket if the RCF counterparty invests the full $100 million and we see a buying frenzy like we did on 2nd December 2019 when 68 million shares were traded.

[aimshares] 05/5/2021 15:11

Am expecting 100% rise to current share price on the release of news .

[7rademark] 05/5/2021 14:53

If I'm correct we will see a sharp spike upwards and soon. Of course they could move it the other way but that's dangerous as they may come out of it in a worst position

[7rademark] 05/5/2021 14:52

I do rough estimates as havnt got the time to work out net sells or buys but it's usually 3-2 on decent volume days, the mms need balance not arrears. Of course many trades are difficult to ascertain but I'm confident it's heavily weighed to the buy side.

[mick sturbs] 05/5/2021 14:46

How many shares are we talking?

[7rademark] 05/5/2021 14:43

I don't get this, looking back weeks the mms are in arrears, they are selling more than they are buying and it's been constant, wheres it coming from and if it isn't when are they going to let the share price go.

[garykc] 05/5/2021 13:23

Wow. 7.7p paid

[801710245] 05/5/2021 10:19

...and best regards from a very buoyant holder.

:o )

[oilhunter2020] 05/5/2021 10:14

Hi 7rademark, and this still "cute" mcap is the reason why I am far away from pressing the sell-button now.

Normally after such a rise during the recent weeks I would take some money off the table but here there is a lot still to come. Best regards from a very relaxed holder ;-)

[7rademark] 05/5/2021 09:57

This is just the start the mcap is just 34m, in a billion pound industry this is nothing.

[neilyb675] 05/5/2021 09:40

up she goes