Alpha Fx Share Discussion Threads

[martywidget] 03/1/2019 08:53

...Analysts at City broker Liberum added: “With clear evidence that management understand how to invest for growth, we believe the combination of the further technology and headcount investment outlined in today's statement, and the recent £20m fund raise, position the business for further upgrades over the next 24 months.”

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/211892/alpha-fx-surges-as-it-lifts-earnings-guidance-once-again-211892.html

[longshanks] 03/1/2019 07:33

"Earnings...ahead of market expectations"Hopefully this will help stem recent weakness following general market turmoil.

[mysteronz] 19/12/2018 17:34

In theory this stock should be fairly brexit proof, with the wide currency swings companies will be increasingly looking at hedging their Forex which should benefit AFX.

Any other thoughts on the matter?

[pireric] 06/12/2018 20:34

I can get to 40 if I put in 5% growth and 30% margins next year. I didn't just pick a PE out of thin air. Anyway let's come back in a year and see where EPS, growth and the share price is. Time will tell

have a good evening

[john09] 06/12/2018 20:31

Oh you’re giving your own PE 👍🏼😂

I’ve put this on a 40 then

[pireric] 06/12/2018 20:26

Talking about my own estimates, not that of Liberum's which are clearly way too low and imply 23x fy19

[pireric] 06/12/2018 20:04

Increased holding 50% today. Now on around 15x fy20 p/e. Was also a volume buyer in size at 565

[daz] 06/12/2018 08:21

The spread is even worse today at 40p or 6.6%, though you can probably deal inside it.

[pireric] 05/12/2018 20:03

The spread is shocking, so pretty much if you sell and then buy back, you're taking a nearly 5% loss

Considering adding to my holding here though prioritised another holding today. Will revisit again tomorrow. Pretty happy to buy on wider market weakness

[daz] 05/12/2018 15:36

I think there's a line of stock from the placing being dribbled onto the market, it's of course impossible to tell how much is left and so how long this will go on for.
In cases like this, I've found it pays to watch for a spike in volume, which usually means the overhang has been mopped up.
FWIW, look at the recent trades, I think we've got a few days to go, so I can see this drifting a little lower for a while but it will create a buying opportunity at some point.

[cfro] 05/12/2018 14:55

Drifting down on small volume.

Awaiting the next trading update.

[interceptor2] 02/12/2018 12:48

A great analysis and informative read, Thanks for sharing.

[rampmeister] 02/12/2018 09:25

Thanks Solooiler for sharing such an excellent analysis.

RM

[pireric] 18/11/2018 10:00

Nice thing about AFX is the transactional nature of the revenue flow meaning its really recurring

Notice that the £20m raising did not throw up new institutional investors so actually must be that most of the existing ones took up what I presume would have been close to pro rata allocation which is rather encouraging

[gucci] 08/11/2018 12:47

looks to be heading for a breakout

[nfs] 08/11/2018 11:24

Nice move up todayI bought in after the placing and stock market correction dropped the price back, so thanks mr market

[rampmeister] 06/11/2018 07:49

They don't seem given towards issuing any more RNS than need to so would expect T/U around mid January as last year. We did get an update from SCSW last weekend but it was just along similar lines to my post on 3rd October - think they may be picking my brains:-)

RM

[pireric] 05/11/2018 20:11

FWIW, my forecasts are for 23.1p of EPS this year, 28.3p next year, and 38.7p in FY20

[pireric] 04/11/2018 19:58

Wonder if the next trading statement will come in January or before.

After 55% growth in the first half of the year, it's almost certainly going to be a good one, with growth beginning to accelerate in September and comps in the second half actually easier. You'd hope that the net funds raised would accelerate growth further next year, with Alpha Pay entering into the fold as well. The addressable market is huge and so I'd rather they fire double-barrelled to gain as much market share as possible over the next 2 years

[rampmeister] 13/10/2018 07:28

Interesting snippet in SCSW last week. For the benefit of non-subscribers and as per interim statement,sales team increased from 32 to 47 (will be + 50% by now as still recruiting), client numbers up by 82 during first half which compares favourably with 87 for whole of last year and yet Liberium are only forecasting whole year sales of 19.7m. when first half recorded at 9.7m.?

More recently Liberium have increased their pre tax profit forecast by 10% following record September but they are still way behind the curve. £10 share in waiting.

RM

[johnv] 11/10/2018 13:37

All those in the placing at 620 are under the water

[pireric] 08/10/2018 16:28

Can't say I'm on 40p for next year, but I'm a smidge over 30p and that's with the new diluted share count; with this trading momentum, 30x isn't crazy. I would agree there

[nw99] 08/10/2018 16:25

Great day still cheap