Alpha Fx Share Discussion Threads

[hydrus] 09/4/2018 09:01

Their adjusted cashflow seems to be £3.1m pre tax, based on their calculation (However they report profit before tax of £5.6m.) That puts them on a rating of 54 times cash.

[hydrus] 09/4/2018 08:10

Unless of course it can be explained!

[hydrus] 09/4/2018 08:05

I'm struggling to understand the cashflow here. They raised £12.3m at IPO and yet cash only increased by £11.9m which suggests a cash outflow from trading yet they talk about the increase in cash being partly due to profitable trading:'In the year ended 31 December 2017 net cash on the non-statutory basis increased by GBP11.9m to GBP13.7m, largely due to the net proceeds of the IPO and the profitable trading in the year.'I don't really understand their explanation in the final results. Can anyone explain it? On the surface it looks like they are not generating cash profits so a red flag for me.

[pireric] 07/4/2018 08:59

Unlikely IMO. Morgan still holds a 30% stake and business growing extremely strongly, would require a giant offer.

[rampmeister] 07/4/2018 08:23

I see this as a takeover target so not sure how long term your perspective needs to be. All imho of course.

RM

[ddav] 06/4/2018 21:03

Looks to me like some special deals being awarded, all good stuff.
--- G weekend all.

[pireric] 06/4/2018 19:15

Looks like there is some shareholding shuffling going on in the background based on trades over the last 2 days, DD and GD

Good weekend all.

[gonedown] 06/4/2018 10:44

So have I got this for long term, PC and DV.Gone

[ddav] 06/4/2018 10:29

You and me both PC -----

[pireric] 05/4/2018 19:48

Indeed - luckily I've got a multi-year horizon here

[gonedown] 05/4/2018 09:49

Such a large spread.It puts people off. Good fortune all. Gone.

[pireric] 29/3/2018 21:30

Might as well add on the dip. Results were 10% ahead of forecasts so cold feet from volatile markets will probably reverse

[gerihatrick] 25/3/2018 16:27

It is produced by Investors Champion and you have to pay a small amount for the report. They have a credible reputation

[nurdin] 24/3/2018 22:36

Where do I find this research note by the way?

[nurdin] 23/3/2018 16:51

I agree on that !

[pireric] 21/3/2018 21:14

Busy at work !

Super results, They've only got a small slice of their current TAM and that's now expanding again.

Only reason not to invest here is the valuation, but thats a nonsense argument to me as it's not expensive for the earnings growth and if you took that approach you'd never have bought BOO, FEVR etc.

Hold on to fab stocks, and this is one of them.

[nurdin] 21/3/2018 10:22

Surprised no comment from the holders here on the final results.Look excellent to me with eps beating forecasts by a decent amount..

[pireric] 13/3/2018 20:34

Big question is; do I buy more before results next week?

[pireric] 06/3/2018 20:37

I've taken an initial stake here. It's quite expensive at face value, but strip out the cash balance and then look at the business in its raw form

Superb margins, enviable growth, and more importantly, an extremely large market opportunity.

And yet it's only trading on c. 20x ex cash 2019 earnings on my calcs. And those earnings forecasts look light to me. Could easily be on 16x or less by the time we get there, such is the pace of revenue growth. In 5 years, if they nail the business model, this could be a substantially bigger company.


So while many will be put off by the high multiple, it actually looks very reasonable. A good comparison to this sort of situation? YU Group. I think this has every chance of continuing to re-rate.

[the juggler] 19/2/2018 11:25

Just 30 days now to the results and this has weathered the recent market turbulence very well indeed. Ticking up quietly.

[rampmeister] 03/2/2018 12:53

Nice to hear they are expanding into
select European territories and on boarding European clients.

RM

[martywidget] 03/2/2018 09:11

I see there is a mention in SCSW:

Alpha FX - Second eps upgrade since August
February 2018

Ahead of results on 18 March, Alpha FX has announced that revenue for the year ended 31 December was ahead of expectations and is expected to be £13.5m (+58% - all organic) so another upgrade was in order.
The ‘marketing’ halo of the IPO has been helping AFX win bigger





However, worth noting that at the last trading update Alpha FX Group stated:

"The Group intends to publish its maiden full year results on 21 March 2018".

[john09] 19/1/2018 02:06

Cat. Got. Tongue