Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[senor_sensible] 03/1/2014 08:50

ALPH nearly ready for it's next leg up.

There is an old saying in business, get what you can when you can. Barx had the chance to take some serious cash from here recently but the choice taken was to roll it up into long term debt and take the interest off it, longer term than all the other debt. If this was such a Risky proposition they would have taken cash, espcially since they have their own covenents to worry about.

We know the AofIs protected the company to a certain extent in terms of dilution so with the markets now on the climb (affects the tenants, note ALU is investing in R&D too so on the path up) All the bad news is behind us.....

This is a buy and hold, put it in your pension, ISA, etc and avoid the CGT when this climbs closer to its NAV, I currently have NAV at over 25p....

Happy new year to all........

[hosede] 19/12/2013 12:15

4-spiel
I would still like to see the LTV reduced. What if the European situation worsens, asset values fall, and interest rates rise?
mgalle
The assets would have to be sold in a controlled manner and NOT below value: but they are supposed to be prime property

[mgalle] 18/12/2013 10:09

I think the price movement is due to speculation about tapering and is pretty meaningless as I doubt it will affect European interest rates anytime soon. Oh its down again now. If you look at the experience of IERE they have had to sell assets at 50% of what they were currently considered to be worth. Such a sale will not help. They other thing I took from the RNS implies that they might still have to pay the overdraft even if the asset has been sold. "As part of the arrangements, the loan-to-value covenant on all the Company's existing secured facilities of EUR242.4m has been waived."

So this means that such a sale will not happen until closer to the 10 February 2015 and hopefully the European commercial property market will have picked up by then. I have still not worked out how long it will take to repay the debt. A fun thing to do over Christmas.

Yes, a long, long wait for that potential 300% + upside.

[hosede] 17/12/2013 18:16

!0% jump today for no obvious reason (that I can see) Is something about to happen - eg an asset sale.

[4spiel] 16/12/2013 19:05

Deflation is doing Spain good. Great pity Trichet retired - Mario Bertorelli was said to be by Trichet 'one of us' I hope he still is. The Germans have the same Finance Minister which is good but the SPD has saddled the new Govt with higher minimum wage . Best hope that QE tapering in US will lift the $ and take the upward pressure off the Euro -quite amazing is Euro strength. Pity ALPH is not a euro denominated investment.

[hosede] 09/12/2013 16:43

Some QE from the ECB is what ALPH need - if deflation continues maybe they'll be dragged (screaming) into it despite the Germans.

[mgalle] 04/12/2013 17:34

Thanks Jimmy12345. That is what I am hoping will happen. I will have ago at working out the time it would take to pay off the debt.

(I also hope they will change bankers but not to RBS!)

[jimmy12345] 03/12/2013 17:27

Off top of head. Will take about 4 years to pay off the hedge debt. And then they still have all the other debt. I believe the best thing now would be to look for assets to sell in an orderly fashion, and i think this is what will happen. The loan as giving breathing space to alow this to happen. The end result will be a higher nav on a much smaller company. At this point a divident should be returned. So the next news could most likely be about rhe sale of an asset.

[bronislav] 03/12/2013 17:24

Sold a few this morning circa 20k .it was put through as a buy.

[mgalle] 03/12/2013 17:21

Has anybody worked out how long it would take them to repay the hedge and the new loan just by withholding the dividend.

[hybrasil] 03/12/2013 08:58

It will not pay a dividend

[orchestralis] 02/12/2013 15:32

Does anybody think they will pay a divi in 2014? If so what would you forecast it to be?

[red army] 26/11/2013 22:40

Thats for sure

[jimmy12345] 26/11/2013 17:54

Starting to get tempting here again

[senor_sensible] 22/11/2013 12:57

If you are into that sort of thing :-) as an additional confirmation it helps

[alphahunter] 21/11/2013 10:59

14 Oct'13 - 08:35 - 1047 of 1346: Just joined the party, via spreadbet though, at 4.00p

Yes, some must be delusional illusionists, liars or damn lucky.
What does ALPH do again? Run a bunch of Gites Ruraux in the pyrennees?

[hosede] 21/11/2013 10:52

Exactly - that's why I would prefer a controlled liquidation like APT

[joe say] 21/11/2013 10:43

They'd (We'd) make a decent return even if sold BELOW book value

[qs99] 21/11/2013 10:00

Yup not without its risks as you say....but even if they wound the whole thing up now surely, shareholders if properties were sold at book value, would make a decent turn?!

[blackpoolsteve] 21/11/2013 09:32

Agree with general comments recently made on here.

A few years ago this share was touted by the Investors Chronicle as a good paying income share,and I already held a few. I still have a small holding at an avearge price of 20p,and probably should have sold 12 months ago to break even - allured by the high NAV. Crazy management team got it badly wrong though,and the Institutions on board probably kicked off and demanded some action,hence the earlier directors buys to try and stabalise the price .

What is clear is that only a few speculators have made a few 100 pounds on this dog of a share. 0% of 0% is nothing,so when some claim that they bought at 3p and sold at 7p are illustionists,liars, or damn lucky.

Yes,the price my come back in 2 years if the debt can be reduced,but as investors,it must be easier to spread the risk - eret,aurr,trc and trv offer better long term buys + they pay dividends or promise to pay out shareholders in time
Good luck to anyone game enough to speculate on ALPH.;they'll need it

[red army] 20/11/2013 23:24

QS9 - Unfortunately a leopard does not change its spots but it is my belief that property has only one way to go particularly with all of this unwinding that will lead to inflation so the external forces will prevail and less onus on management which does not have a great track record.
Still say long term play and ignore the daily moves and concentrate on the longer term trend.