Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 21/11/2013 10:00

Yup not without its risks as you say....but even if they wound the whole thing up now surely, shareholders if properties were sold at book value, would make a decent turn?!

[blackpoolsteve] 21/11/2013 09:32

Agree with general comments recently made on here.

A few years ago this share was touted by the Investors Chronicle as a good paying income share,and I already held a few. I still have a small holding at an avearge price of 20p,and probably should have sold 12 months ago to break even - allured by the high NAV. Crazy management team got it badly wrong though,and the Institutions on board probably kicked off and demanded some action,hence the earlier directors buys to try and stabalise the price .

What is clear is that only a few speculators have made a few 100 pounds on this dog of a share. 0% of 0% is nothing,so when some claim that they bought at 3p and sold at 7p are illustionists,liars, or damn lucky.

Yes,the price my come back in 2 years if the debt can be reduced,but as investors,it must be easier to spread the risk - eret,aurr,trc and trv offer better long term buys + they pay dividends or promise to pay out shareholders in time
Good luck to anyone game enough to speculate on ALPH.;they'll need it

[red army] 20/11/2013 23:24

QS9 - Unfortunately a leopard does not change its spots but it is my belief that property has only one way to go particularly with all of this unwinding that will lead to inflation so the external forces will prevail and less onus on management which does not have a great track record.
Still say long term play and ignore the daily moves and concentrate on the longer term trend.

[qs9] 20/11/2013 22:44

interesting to see some online news talking of -ve interest rates being mooted by ECB....if so, will property not become more of a depositary for wealth to try and maintain some return/value? With such low interest rates here, and for the long term we have seen London go ballistic on the housing price front. Change away from Hollande (or he sees errors of his ways....at about 20% polling he can't get any worse!) may also see France rebound.....not short-term plays I admit, but with such a discount to NAV, these macro views IMO should make people take a further look at ALPH at these levels....let's hope management are doing the rounds as we speak and have a decent IR team....!

[4spiel] 20/11/2013 12:21

Maybe Hosede it is better they hang on to good assets. Not being a speculator and having only a modest holding I think this can only be seen as a very long hope. Eventually property assets in France and Spain are going to do better than in recent years simply because property commercial and residential are desirable assets but there has been consolidation always politics and the realities of the Eurosystem !

[alphahunter] 20/11/2013 12:01

Right, this is the first step, e.g. "plan de sauvegarde", under the auspices of the "administrateur judiciaire", whereby the debt is/can be rescheduled up to 7 years max. Hence my use of the word administration, which I realise has a more narrow meaning in English. Doubt a TC would have granted a PS or even a RJ to a financial SPV. Anyway, don't want to detract/highjack the conversation from the main point: long hard work for the next 14 months, and their largest asset could drive revenues up. What was initially a punt at 4p topped up at 6p might turn into a longer-term investment.

Senior I appreciate the earlier reminder about the no-dilution article.

[hosede] 20/11/2013 11:56

QS9
I don't think the upturn in property prices is guaranteed, unless Draghi is finally forced into some form of money printing - and Germany (who basically control the purse strings because they're going to end up paying for it all!!) are categorically against that.

[qs99] 20/11/2013 09:31

Oklets hope sellers have truly cleared and we can start seeing a share price that reflects nearer true value!

[mgalle] 20/11/2013 08:36

Thanks for the posts

"As part of the arrangements, the loan-to-value covenant on all the Company's existing secured facilities of EUR242.4m has been waived."

Am I right in thinking that this means that the board has given themselves the wiggle room to sell some of the properties?

[qs9] 20/11/2013 07:11

where to for this today? hopefully management are doing the rounds to drum up support for this venture....get the share price up to even a 50% discount to NAV, then do a placing to pay Barclays off and then enjoy uptick in property prices.....or is that too simple for this board to work out?!

[senor_sensible] 20/11/2013 07:05

Alpha, not talking about going into admin, this about foreclosure of secured lending is absolute last option, they have to first consider interest only payments for up to four years, last thing France and Spain want is a credit crisis in the commercial sector too.

[parsons] 19/11/2013 17:42

Quite right hosede lets hope that we can sort the debts out before aforementioned banks and debt blows up.

[senor_sensible] 19/11/2013 14:21

Why vote for a liquidation, the global economy is about to face high inflation with very low borrowing rates the best way to profit is to leverage as much as possible with debt. We are on the bottom rung on the way up, Barx just wanted a piece of the action and past mistakes by the company allowed them the opportunity to get a piece.

Once this is close to its NAV of 28-30p, we will see the NAV increase again, the share price will be chasing the NAV and in a few years it will overtake based on a forward PE. That is the time to sell up, way past the 30p mark and in the 60-100p range.

Patient will be rewarded.

[olderandwiserone] 19/11/2013 14:00

Is there any chance that shareholders can force a liquidation vote through by the time of the 2015 debt roll over?

[qs99] 19/11/2013 13:49

Lovely reversal, hopefully sellers cleared...no other property play IMO offers this discount and possible upside - high risk IMO high reward (we are talking France for lots of the property after all!!?).... Lets see some blue....

[orchestralis] 19/11/2013 13:42

Weak holders out. Come on ALPH lets see some blue skies.

[red army] 19/11/2013 12:56

Must be careful I don't go above 3%

[joe say] 19/11/2013 12:37

Personally see it in a similar vein so am fairly calm awaiting for the market to catch up which tends to be a few days at best

[senor_sensible] 19/11/2013 12:33

As much as I would love to post all day to try re-assure other holders, at the end of the day I want to buy some more so for me I am happy for a few PIs to sell out/reduce their holdings.

The best outcome would have been to not have the hedge in the first place, but that is in the past and nothing can change history.

Barx only option (due to AofI of ALPH and local laws in france and spain) to offer finance for the hedge, the terms are no different to many short term secured debt. And we know that the whole portfolio will need to be re-financed in the future. If I was CEO I would have kept kicking this into the future but I guess they had to inform the market of a solutuion so struck a deal.

The NAV is approx 28p Taking this into account, trading at 25% of the NAV makes an excellent long term investment, so when the traders are out the big money will move in.

[red army] 19/11/2013 12:31

Added to holding - too good to miss at this level after the nervous profit takers have moved in.

[qs99] 19/11/2013 12:17

Looks an odd reaction Imo....lets hope the mm are stocking up...

[senor_sensible] 19/11/2013 12:07

All the property and the hedge will be re-financed at the same time. By which time the acrued surplus rental income will cover the shortfall and sort the NAV out. Expect to see some holdings RNS in next few days, BOD and managament cmopany will up their stakes