Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[mrscruff] 10/9/2024 07:13

This is a massive shock. Morgan Tillbrook was known to be instrumental in all this and I know I am going to be down today and just lucky I had profit taken last month. I will be buying back in... not sure when. This is not what the company needs right now ahead of a rate cutting cycle. However, I suspect rates will remain higher for longer and ALPH does really well going forward.

[ali47fish] 10/9/2024 07:11

they think they are clever with this resuhffle down a hefty 5pc

[mrscruff] 05/9/2024 12:19

Soft-landing, higher for longer being tested with lower yields and tougher times. But the soft-landing is still base case.

[mrscruff] 04/9/2024 06:30

All inline with the trading update and evidence that operational growth would persist in any environment. Still expecte share price volatility.

[spwh100] 03/9/2024 15:26

Didn't realise there was an update tomorrow. share price swings wildly with this one

[mrscruff] 03/9/2024 13:36

Another trading update tomorrow. We are trading a much higher level now. I don't expect much reaction tomorrow but the case for higher rates and a soft landing has taken a bit of a hit this week with recession talk where I have sold 30% of my holdings here but would be happy to add if there is a mark increase in operational performance tomorrow.

[mrscruff] 23/7/2024 06:39

Today trading remained robust and inline with expectation. They expect revenue for the full year to increase by 27% to approximately £98 million (compared to £77.5 million in 2021).

[mrscruff] 28/6/2024 07:30

Agree with the concerns. Its good timing though, as the share price pulled back and I see this as a net positive because of the known reasons:

Flexibility: By holding dividends in treasury, the company maintains flexibility. It can reissue those shares later, which simplifies future share allotments without requiring additional shareholder approval.

Market Perception: Retaining dividends can signal confidence in the company’s financial health. Investors may view this positively, potentially impacting the stock price.

EPS: Keeping dividends in treasury could enhance EPS. A reduced share count due to buybacks can elevate EPS and attract investors.

We know there is a healthy share scheme and I suspect this is where the worry is. But I wonder if these held in threasury helps in acquisitions? - if someone experienced could answer?

In the meantime I should stop blabbering on adding little value. The frustration comes from the fact there is zero media coverage for what looks like the perfect company for this macro environment. I wonder when Alpha would switch the media tap on?

[spwh100] 28/6/2024 06:14

Just announced another £20m buyback but I noticed they’ll be held in Treasury and not cancelled. Don’t like it when companies do that

[mrscruff] 18/6/2024 06:51

Buy backs resumed after a few days pause. Dangerously near stop loss level. This pause in buybacks coincided with a macro view that rate cuts though paused are a reality and a wider market decline.

I am factoring in a newer neutral rate of 3.2 percent as part of earnings and get a very low P/E. It is pretty much consensus we are not going back to zero rates. Not sure if this is wishful or bias thinking 🤔

[mrscruff] 10/6/2024 06:48

Friday should have seen trading money come off the table as it is an obvious trend line. Indeed my own small trading tranche was sold. It's either breakout or a dip next. It may come down to the market taking into consideration the interest income into valuations be it at a slightly lower rate and with expectations of a higher neutral rate than recent history. I wonder how much the US dot plot expectations this week is influencing the share price move here?

[koolhead] 06/6/2024 15:37

Having followed the company closely for a few years, I think it's unlikely, at least at the moment. But I could be wrong

[mrscruff] 06/6/2024 14:23

@Koolhead Regarding the NASDAQ you could be right but it is touted as an "international" index with companies like Ryanair who list but don't fly there. Same for e-commerce company MercadoLibre I have shares in, probably loads of Chinese companies etc...

[nfs] 06/6/2024 13:36

FTSE Russell confirmed on Wednesday that the following changes will take effect to its UK indices from the market open on Monday, June 24, after completing its quarterly review.-------FTSE 100 Additions:-------DarktraceLondonMetric PropertyVistry Group-------FTSE 100 Deletions:-------Ocado GroupRS GroupSt James's Place-------FTSE 250 Adds:-------Alpha Group InternationalOcado GroupRenewiRS GroupSt James's PlaceXPS Pensions Group-------FTSE 250 Deletes:-------DarktraceFerrexpoLondonMetric PropertyMobico GroupOctopus Renewables Infrastructure TrustVistry Group

[mrscruff] 06/6/2024 13:34

I believe todays rise is linked to inflation going up despite EBC cutting rates. This means governments are not serious about cutting rates ahead of the US today and thus preferring to protect the business in "soft landing". A Goldilox for ALPH. Well at least for the forceable... EBC are not close to neutral rate yet seeing strong economic growth that needs protecting.

[koolhead] 06/6/2024 13:33

ALPH is headed for the FTSE 250, obviously. But it's hard to imagine a business less likely to list in the US. They don't even have a licence to operate over there and the entire focus is really the UK then Europe. Right now, the UK is the natural home. Plus they've done well here and the share price is rising fast

[fft] 06/6/2024 13:15

I meant FTSE 250. Really :-). The official date was close of play yesterday as I understand it. The share price move today may, or may not, be related to that move. Quite a few funds can buy ALPH now that couldn't before. And trackers will need positions as well.Or, could it possibly be USA related ? That, surely, is the holy grail.

[nfs] 06/6/2024 11:50

FTSE 250 I think

[mrscruff] 06/6/2024 07:45

Never the FTSE 100. Main market starts at the FTSE 250. ALPH is in the final stages of being promoted from AIM. You'll know when if you do a dummy buy and you have to pay stamp duty on it! Though yes an RNS too.

Alternatively the list of companies are here:


This here is a very powerful tool for the LSE index moving:
hxxps://stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

I don't think ALPH will make it to the FTSE 100 and instead join the NASDAQ in years to come. This is the only long term single company in my 20 year accumulating SIPP made up of a global index and private equity trusts.

[fft] 06/6/2024 07:29

Was ALPH officially promoted to the FTSE 100 yesterday ? As per link below. I was expecting an RNS.

[mrscruff] 30/5/2024 17:34

* Detractor: Alex sells £100,000 worth of shares. Good time to offload some shares without damaging the share price too much. Edit: Buybacks have resumed so thats his lot.

* Positive: The macro news in Europe is starting to pivot pushing out rate cut expectations, with inflation mixed and energy going up this side of the pond. Economy able to cope...dare I say it grow! An environment is emerging where ALPH could thrive or provide a massive hedge in a defensive-growth portfolio alongside equities, gold and inflation linked infrastructure.

[ihatemms] 28/5/2024 17:31

The above link confirms that Alpha will be promoted to the ftse 250 subject to final capitalisation toting up on the 5th June :-)