Allied Minds Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 06/5/2015 19:37

The chart shows a number of patterns, inc two potential H&S. They have completed within a broadening descending wedge. The share price has achieved its third touch on the lower trendline of the wedge that often acts as a buy point. The target in this pattern is at the recent ath. Bulkowski suggests a 79% chance of upward breakout, assuming correct ID on the pattern. imo. Currently no position.



for more info on this pattern, check out Bulkowski's web page,

[ifthecapfits] 06/5/2015 16:03

I guess it was due a retrace after such a stella performance of late. Might it re-visit the £5 area? Any chartists on here?

[investordave] 30/4/2015 16:06

Does anyone know why there are so many tiny sales of late? All very odd..

[bena1] 29/4/2015 16:02

Bit bit uncritical as you might expect from Woodford, but worth reading perhaps.

hxxps://woodfordfunds.com/londons-best-kept-secret/

[bena1] 29/4/2015 15:45

Is there anyone out there who went to yesterday's events that would care to share anything of interest? Or has anyone seen a write up that they can point us in the direction of?

Many thanks,
Ben.

[dangersimpson2] 29/4/2015 11:54

Rather than invest in high risk, highly concentrated single stock investments we feel it better to diversify risk but maintain exposure to the focus on innovation which is fueling the M&A in healthcare.

This was the argument that was used for conglomerates in the 70's & 80's. In recent times this has fallen out of favour as people argue that portfolio management can achieve all of the diversification benefits, be tailored to the individual investment strategy and save the additional cost structure of the combined entity. This is also the reason that a lot of investment trusts trade at a big discount to NAV. As this combined model fell out of favour there was returns to be made by breaking up conglomerates or winding up closed end funds - although they often faced opposition from the management who enjoyed the economic rents their position gave!

So this is not really a strong argument why ALM should trade at a premium to OAV in the current market environment. There are benefits to the ALM structure - they can invest seed capital without individual fund raising costs. They have developed relationships that give them access to future ideas. However there is a cost to this of course which is the central overhead c.$30m pa. Where I think we disagree is how much those benefits are worth compared to their costs.

Re: close trailing stops - seems a very sensible way to play this if you are long. You have the upside exposure if you believe that the share is still in an up-trend but limited downside if the momentum reverses (which seems more likely to me) and this drops to a much smaller premium to OAV.

[abcd1234] 28/4/2015 11:15

some broker notes re results for those who may not follow coverage in FT:



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Neil Camping at Aviate

The single stock, single product risk as is often characterised in small cap biotech investing can also be extremely sobering. Celladon last night fell 80% after it become apparent the $200 million/year revenues by the end of the decade was a pipe dream rather than indicative of pipeline when their Phase 2b gene therapy drug didn’t meet primary and secondary end points.

Rather than invest in high risk, highly concentrated single stock investments we feel it better to diversify risk but maintain exposure to the focus on innovation which is fueling the M&A in healthcare. With Many big cap pharma companies with lower quality in-house pipelines are trying to play catch-up with those who have superior in house R&D and leadership in next generation therapies. It is worth remembering Allied Minds has a JV with $108bn pharma giant Bristol-Myers Squibb. There is no single bet on one drug or one innovation. The ABLS (Allied-Bristol Life Sciences) collaboration will identify and foster research and pre-clinical development of biopharma innovations.

Outside of healthcare, Allied Minds also offers exposure to the most important themes in technology such as IT Security, revolutionary new semiconductor processes and Intellectual Property.

We suspect the stock is weak partly on the back of news the Chairman is due to step down later this year. While disappointing as Mark Pritchard has been instrumental in bringing the company to the public market, he leaves behind a strong bench of management, a broadening university and federal partner network and a plethora of new commercial opportunities.

We/Aviate will be back with detail after this afternoon’s CMD but Allied Minds warrants further investigation and, we suspect, will soon be at new highs.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[dasv] 28/4/2015 08:17

I banged in a short.

Big spread on IG. Prepared to be proved wrong technically.

Well capitalised but no commercialisation of projects (correct me if I'm wrong).

Also whenever anyone says there's a new paradigm (e.g. Greenspan's "New economy"/dot com economy) I am suspicious. Exec Chairman:-

"I believe we are seeing the emergence of a new type of investment model to help address this problem, which is better suited for building the next generation of technology companies and seeks to deliver above average returns for investors. These public venture companies focus on developing portfolios of IP-based early-stage start-ups and seek to help build them into companies over a much longer time horizon, providing capital and management support along the way."

[alasdair100new] 28/4/2015 07:52

Anyone coming to capital markets day?

[abcd1234] 28/4/2015 07:06

RNS of Annual Results:


and appointment of New non-exec Chairman

[skinwalker] 27/4/2015 22:37

I accept the share price has held up well, but there is never anything wrong with taking profits. I bought in at under 300 and sold at 690. I wish I could say that about all my investments. Liberated dosh was spent on Woodfords new PC fund.
Time will tell!

[r ball] 27/4/2015 22:26

Unless you need the money there is no need to sell? It has not even hit a trailing 15% stop loss. I would continue to add here.

[skinwalker] 27/4/2015 22:02

I wonder who's the lobotomised half-wit who thumbed-down my previous post.

[skinwalker] 27/4/2015 15:51

You're right dangersimpson. This share is valued on hopes and optimistic expectations. If Woodford wasn't in the background I would expect the share price would be nearer 300 (or even 200).
Clearly there is potential in the Allied Minds subsidiaries - but potential is what this share is valued on. Are any of these subsidiaries trading? Making a shilling?
This doesn't necessarily mean that the share price will fall in the short-term, although crazy valuations such as this normally end in tears. I took profits selling half my holding a couple of weeks back, but I'm happy to hang on for a bit, although it seems that it may have hit the buffers at 700.

[r ball] 25/4/2015 16:36

A couple of points:

Valuation to tricky so best to rely on external financing valuation basis

How accurate is this if the external finance comes from Woodford?

As for under the radar: there is an rns every 3 weeks about one subsidiary or so. This is likely to prolong interest.

Ps: I'm a holder.

[dangersimpson2] 25/4/2015 10:57

I'm bearish on valaution & momentum I'm afraid.

When you have a company like this the long term value is what the subsiduaries are worth. If these are successful then the value of these will increase, if they are not they will decrease. It is the nature of these early stage companies that they are very hard to value. You essentially have 2 ways of doing this - 1 is the directors opinion, the second is the read-through value from external investments into the company or equity value if the company is seperately listed. This is what they call the ownership adjusted value. The directors are naturally optimistic about the future of these companies so we can safely assume that they are not intentionally undervaluing their subsiduiries. When we do see an uplift in OAV it is based on the successful companes raising external financing.

In the last 6 months we have seen OAV uplifts in 2 ALM subsiduiries STT & Scifluor to give a total OAV of $481m. After investments they have $195m cash left minus any cash burn over the last 6 months. This means that the current best guess value of the company is £1.94/share (fully diluted). It may be right to value the company at a premium to OAV + cash if you believe that OAV will increase over time but 3.5xOAV? Seems excessive to me. Given the risks that early stage companies have to buy ALM now on valuation terms you would have to believe it's true value is something like 5 time what the ALM directors are telling you their company is worth - is that really likely?

So why has ALM got to £7? I think it's due to the reputation of Woodford and share price momentum. These can all be good reasons to invest in a company but you have to be clear that this is why you are investing not based on valuation. So what about these going forward? It seems from the SciFluor deal that any Woodford investment is now happening at the subsiduary level - hardly surprising when he is getting 3.5x more for his money. And share price momentum seems to have stalled at £7.

Therefore to invest here as a PI you need to be confident that you can value the subsiduaries of ALM better than its own directors since otherwise valuation, momentum and reputation are now going against you. Seems a tall ask to me.

[elcapital] 24/4/2015 16:43

I am sure we will lock horns. Or we may agree. Looks interesting stock, but maybe a little top heavy for now, but given its portfolio, there is always a chance or a massive boom from one of its investments. Lets see.

[bamboo2] 24/4/2015 16:42

He's probably at work, or shopping. :)

[elcapital] 24/4/2015 16:38

Uh oh, so there is a resident ramper? Thanks for the info

[bamboo2] 24/4/2015 16:36

Results and CMD early next week, if that's any help.
Quite surprised Skinwalker hasn't chipped in.

[elcapital] 24/4/2015 16:32

Well thats a good sign. Usually get some idiot trying to ramp the liver out if a stock. Chart int looking too bright, time to look a little deeper. Cheers guys

[elcapital] 24/4/2015 11:26

Can the resident bull put forward the investment case here? No position at the moment, just interested to see why people are invested