Alliance & Leicester Share Discussion Threads

[acamas] 08/7/2008 18:28

They have just had the CEO of JP Morgan Chase on Bloomberg TV talking live from an Insurance Conference in Arlington, Virgina. He was talking about the subprime problem and how to overcome it with regulation. He considers that the 100% mortgage is a thing of the past. JP Morgan are doing everything they can to keep people in their property. The Last thing they want is the keys back and an unpaid debt. Freddie Mac and companies like them must be allowed to issue mortgages once more. The fraud that went with the sub-prime has to be regulated against so that it cannot re-occur. The regulation must not be too severe to push business underground.

The politicians must not go after company's because if they do they will hurt the shareholders not people like himself.

The takeover of Bear Sterns by JP Morgan was the right thing to do as it will save the taxpayer billions

They must tax fuel it is the only way to get business' to invest in alternative forms of energy supply. Why should anyone risk capital if gas prices might return to 50 cents. They have known for 40years that the USA have not had a satisfactory oil policy but have had an oil problem looming during this time.

He believes they are overcoming the subprime problem

[morgan reynolds] 08/7/2008 17:29

doubt it..dow rocketing..oil plummeting...the bear is dead...official!

[st0rm] 08/7/2008 17:01

Dow is now up at 21, chances we will se £2.00 tommorow or Thursday? These are look like they are in the sights of shorters at the moment

[jennyj] 08/7/2008 16:45

Throw soros down the well, so your country can be free

We can make investing easy and have a big party.

[poo bear] 08/7/2008 16:07

Thank you Acamas - I don't usually look at such things but realise you are right in respect of MA's

[still waiting] 08/7/2008 15:50

into auction.

[acamas] 08/7/2008 13:21

It will be of note the Treasury figure for the current trading year if released on 1 August because this in effect will tell us more about the sub-prime position of The Bank. That is normally where these money swaps reside between the banks, I think.

[acamas] 08/7/2008 12:59

Can you advise me on where A&L have indicate a RI may be the order of the day.

Their profits figures are as follows

31 Dec 06 £569 million
31 Dec 07 £400 million
31 Dec 08 £168 million forecast
31 Dec 09 £215 million Forecast

could we say that if the share price was £11 on £569 million profit then on £168 million profit it should be around £3.30. It is the sector and The Market in general that is pulling this share down not the quality of the management. Until they publish something that says this company is in difficulty. Then I am quite happy to buy at these levels or lower in the safe knowledge that they wont be this price in 5 years time.

regards

[csmwssk1] 08/7/2008 12:35

i think the reason they have not fell so much is the vast majority of those who understand what is going on here have accepted they wont pay a dividend, by doing such it may prevent the need for a ri, if they keep the dividend and require a ri take a look at bb. and thats the kind of share price you would have.

[acamas] 08/7/2008 12:29

If they do not pay a dividend won't that on its own be taken as a profits warning and drop the share price anyway. I would have thought to keep the ship on an even keel they will attempt to reduce the current dividend by as little as they possibly can manage

[csmwssk1] 08/7/2008 12:22

I have said it before and will say it again, these will not pay a cash dividend, if I am wrong it wont be by much, poss 5p as a gesture, numpties dont seem to understand that a dividend in shares is worthless as the share price will fall to compensate for the extra shares and will restrict future share price appreciation.

[acamas] 08/7/2008 12:16

sbs,

On share buy backs didn't the CEO of Shell come out and say he was against them after they had spent £8 billion on one of them. He felt that they fail to achieve the preconceived expectations for the share price Also is it not better to have a share buy back when the P/E is low. I will have a look at how A&L's P/E ratio is currently.

[mirshahik] 08/7/2008 12:05

New price target by Sandy Chen of Panmure Gordon £ 1.80

[acamas] 08/7/2008 11:55

Poo Bear,

A good starting point might be when 20 day SMA crosses 50 day SMA in the above chart

[dasv] 08/7/2008 11:52

The advisory services like Galvan have a deal with Cityindex (which TDwaterhouse CFD uses under the bonnet) to suspend stops and triggers during the first 30 minutes of trading. This enables them to avoid wide spreads and anomolous prices.

I would definitely NOT recommend taking up an advisory service however. These people just want to churn your capital and take commission. It's a heads I win, tails you lose deal. They can't lose, and because of fee structures you can't win. If you need some advice, get Fat Prophets or someone is not incentivised to encourage churn and burn - i.e. a research company which is not also a broker.

[sbs] 08/7/2008 10:48

On share buy backs, I think companies always start too early, as they are too optimistic about market conditions. So I would keep the cash available, and even accumulate it, and use the threat of a buyback to trigger the odd short squeeze.

I would also preferentially lend to buyers who will replace non-performing mortgages with new people/equity.

I agree that house prices are relatively high, though I think some of this reflects permanent changes in building costs, which are very energy intensive. For example, the refit which they are working on at the moment on my house contains masses of steel (iron ore up 100% over the last year) and bricks and glass both need lots of energy to make.

[poo bear] 08/7/2008 10:42

Acamas, I agree with your outlook on banks as I am sure most do, however finding the bottom is the hard bit.

I also think £1 would be an excellent buy in price.

Others I am lokking at are LLOY, and RBS but again not yet.

Not interested in any others.

[zipper] 08/7/2008 09:14

AL. have been prudent in their lending
possibly Santander are waiting to see how low they go

Santander have looked but they have not walked away
IMHO

[acamas] 08/7/2008 09:11

loganair,

I will be very happy to buy A&L shares at £1 because I believe their intrinsic value to be around £4.40p at worst. That is a personal view but one I am happy to stand by over the next 5 years

regards

[loganair] 08/7/2008 09:06

imo - When this is all over you'll be able to pick-up AL shares for £1 each.

[acamas] 08/7/2008 09:04

loganair,

You will have to assist me in which way am I being silly. My understanding is that A&L mortgage book is one of the least exposed to the American sub-prime bundling inter bank profit swaps. Am I wrong on that? I also thought that The Fed are taking steps to rectify America's housing market difficulties. We have our own right now with BB's buy to let problems and the AMB -ambro takeover in Holland. It seems the only major not suffering to any marked degree is Bank of Santander"Abbey" followed by HSBC, Standard.

I think in a bad sector A&L is being dragged down more than it deserves. Do you hold a differing view?

regards

[acamas] 08/7/2008 08:57

Peak-buyer,

I am aware of that currently, buy we are not yet into share buy backs either. I have watched other company's struggle to hold the share price at any level if The Shorters know that is a company's game plan. Once the buy back period is over the price slips back to its former downward path. It has to be handled perfectly if its aim is to reverse a share price trend. Hedge funds are very good at playing this game prior to a value for money take over for their total benefit. imo

regards

[loganair] 08/7/2008 08:55

Acamas - Don't be so silly. There could be much worse to come. Just look at the trouble both Fannie Mae & Freedie Mac (the US Government backed mortgage lenders in the States) are in.

All stocks in the FTSE 100 are down - ALL stocks Down.