Alliance & Leicester Share Discussion Threads

[peak_buyer] 08/7/2008 08:48

acamas, no-one's shorting a&l - check with your broker

[acamas] 08/7/2008 08:30

Poo Bear,

I believe The Banking Sector is about to throw up the buying opportunity of a decade.

regards

[acamas] 08/7/2008 08:28

sbs,

Perhaps house prices need to retreat they are overheated. Bricks and mortar once up do little for the manufacturing economy. Maybe you are correct in that the money could be used more sensibly elsewhere but not necessarily the Housing Market. I am a house owner but I think it wrong that a brick that have stood for say 25 years grows in value at the rate it has. To take the daft case of how many bricks are required for a house what they cost for the original build and the theoretical price you can place on each one so many years down the line for standing idle seems wrong to myself.

regards

[poo bear] 08/7/2008 08:22

Thanks Acamas as you probably are aware I do not follow Banks too closely, however I am taking an interest at this time for obvious reasons.

[acamas] 08/7/2008 08:20

sbs,

That could be in current circumstances be interpreted as a defensive ploy to shore up the share price Which might play into the hands even more strongly of the shorters.

I have mixed views on share buy backs. The principal may be correct but the practise can often throw up a less than desired outcome. I would need to give a lot more thought in this case to a share buy back operation.

Although I would be very interested in any further comments you may have on this item

regards

Acamas

[sbs] 08/7/2008 08:15

Or even keeping it to lend out more to help stabilize the housing market?

[sbs] 08/7/2008 08:13

Wouldn't it be better to spend some of that on a share buy back, if the shares are such good value?

[acamas] 08/7/2008 07:53

Poo Bear,

Good morning.

Not at 55p its current level but at 30 odd p yes that seems reasonable to myself for the coming year. The dividend has to drop because it is only covered 1.1 times. I am watching to see how forecast profits are effected.

regards

[little beaker] 08/7/2008 07:39

Lol, Kondratieff winter.

Rgds,
Joseph Schumpter.

[poo bear] 08/7/2008 07:36

Morning Acamas - do you really think the dividend will be maintained given the current share price and economic climate?

[jawpaw] 07/7/2008 21:34

Loganair

Nuclear winter? no wonder your brains have been fried, hahahaha

[moregas] 07/7/2008 20:40

could be for jenny

[loganair] 07/7/2008 19:24

Is this worse than a Nuclear Winter??

[labradortrough] 07/7/2008 19:18

Wow, someone on this bb has finally twigged that we are in the Kondratieff winter. I'm impressed. Needless to say I dont hold.

[forwood] 07/7/2008 18:47

Surprised it went down further today. Seems no-one wants the banks, even when ftse rises a 100 pts. Very bearish sign, IMHO

[loganair] 07/7/2008 09:25

At the rate banks are going A&L could easily reach a share price of £1. Best to still sit tight.

[acamas] 07/7/2008 06:50

forwood,

I to have looked at the published figures and can find nothing that I would term of serious concern. They are due to publish figures on 1 August so I will watch the share price movement between then and now with the intention of buying in at some stage. Should they fall further to say £2 or less, then from what I know of the Company and even with a 30 odd p dividend on the horizon. I think they should nolonger be classed as a "sell".

regards

Acamas

[forwood] 07/7/2008 01:47

cdmwsski - I've been through the balance sheet, statements and presentations available on their website. There is absolutely no mention of £7bn US debt. perhaps you are thinking of some other institution.

There was in the 1st 4 mths: '£53m of the reduction in the fair value of treasury assets was recognised in the Group's Income Statement, with a further £199m post-tax reduction recognised through reserves. In addition £139m of impairment losses on treasury assets were recognised in the Income Statement.'

Most of this (£162m) was due to losses / changes in value in SIVs. In the previous year they'd taken £185m impairment The value of the remaining holdings was put at £94m. They have specifically said they do not hold any sub-prime loans or related investments. Most of their Treasury Assets are highly credit rated.

I think the S Times article was 'kite flying' - a story to test reaction to the idea of reduction in dividend. They also ran a story on the Chief Exec, so clearly they'd talked to him. I strongly suspect this was an indicator of intentions. As I said earlier, if they really expected to need more they'd have flown a bigger kite!

[jazza] 06/7/2008 23:38

What "vintage" is the US debt?

That obviously makes a big difference.

[csmwssk1] 06/7/2008 22:42

btw the business bank is attractive to other banks, not the US debt.

[zipper] 06/7/2008 20:27

Elssworth - your 'level 4' is usually pretty good
but no-one is right all the time
and this time its wrong!
thanks
hope this helps

[badtime] 06/7/2008 20:22

Elssworth wots level 20? I hope tht helps

[moregas] 06/7/2008 20:09

depends on how long it takes jenny. kondratieff winter?

[morgan reynolds] 06/7/2008 16:52

this is going down to 150p...then i'll buy