Alea Share Discussion Threads

[adeyberry] 15/12/2005 12:41

Poxy share...lol!!

Its gonna give me a coronary b4 it collapses, I'm sure of it!!

[holdontight] 15/12/2005 12:36

Increased short again....

[holdontight] 15/12/2005 12:03

wooowwwwww, that was quick

[holdontight] 15/12/2005 12:02

Tends to spike up before big falls....any views where this will spike to?

[8para] 15/12/2005 11:14

the sooner the better IMO

[paddyfool] 15/12/2005 10:53

Hammer time is near. The run-off arrangements will/must be announced shortly.

[8para] 15/12/2005 10:42

Paddy...Can one expand?

Or is it a hunch that its near hammer time?

[paddyfool] 15/12/2005 10:37

Be ready.......

[holdontight] 15/12/2005 10:25

Increased short on this today...

[8para] 15/12/2005 09:58

Those credit downgrades means this is like a pub that has lost its lience to sell drink!!

[8para] 14/12/2005 17:36

Its a game of cat and mouse, you would need l3 to be up to date here

Somebody is desperate to keep this above the £1 level

[m.t.glass] 14/12/2005 16:27

PS: There is an order on the bid side at 105p x 1759 quantity - which would bring the last 105p x 1891 trade up to 3650 again if it goes through

Edit: But it got beaten by the bell

[m.t.glass] 14/12/2005 16:14

PF - they are all over the place! So they could all belong in one column (but some wrongly allocated)
- or they could be in-out short-term trades, but the prices shown on each suggest not.
Advn allocation shows total of 58k buys, 92k sells,19k undecideds.

Some of the sets orders look bogus (so may be to deliberately assist in disguises or in manipulation of bets etc)

Total volume shown so far (182k) is highest for several days, but is a level typically reached twice per month.

[paddyfool] 14/12/2005 15:54

M.T. I'm at work and I cant get streaming on the trades are these buys or sells?

[m.t.glass] 14/12/2005 15:07

Fourteen of those 3650 trades so far today are obvious.. dispersed among what look like a random mix of other trades

- until you add some of those random others together

2098+1552 =3650
1817+1833 =3650
2964+686 (twice) = 3650 and 3650
2791+859 = 3650
2602+1048 = 3650


that's 20 lots of 3650 I counted.. within 26 trades. Total 73,000
Are we supposed to not notice??

[tombarr] 14/12/2005 14:46

The £200m insurance oil inferno
Richard Edwards, Evening Standard
12 December 2005
THE Buncefield oil depot blaze will cost tens of millions of pounds in insurance claims, experts said today.

[tombarr] 14/12/2005 14:33

"Fire in The Hole!"

This precis from lloyds List - anyone got a log in?

Bermudian firms feel heat
Tuesday December 13 2005
BERMUDIAN mutual reinsurers may face a substantial bill as a result of the massive fire at a fuel depot at Buncefield in Hertfordshire, writes James Brewer.

[8para] 14/12/2005 13:36

yes paddy was wondering that myself

[paddyfool] 14/12/2005 12:53

And did they have some of Hemel Hempstaed............;-) Suprisingly little mention of how large a loss this will be.

[m.t.glass] 14/12/2005 12:42

That's the same $12m referred to last month - not new money.

[m.t.glass] 14/12/2005 12:33

14 December 2005

Alea completes sale of renewal rights of its US primary programme business

Hamilton, BERMUDA - Alea Group Holdings (Bermuda) Ltd., today announced that it
has completed the previously announced sale of renewal rights to certain
portions of its US primary programme business written by Alea Alternative Risk
(AAR) to subsidiaries of AmTrust Group, a privately held, New York based
insurance and financial services company. On completion the Group received $12
million which will be accounted for as fee income in its 2005 profit and loss
account.

[tombarr] 14/12/2005 10:02

In my insurance naivety, I presume that Alea falls into the "impaired, falling into financial failure" category, here?


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE



OLDWICK, N.J., DECEMBER 13, 2005
Despite extraordinary, back-to-back hurricane seasons, U.S. property/casualty impairments in 2005 are on track to hit the lowest level seen in a decade, according to a special report issued by A.M. Best Co.

In terms of 2005 dollars, each of the seven major hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 ranks among the 20 costliest U.S. catastrophes ever faced by insurers. Hurricane Katrina displaced the San Francisco earthquake and fire as the costliest U.S. insurance event in history.

Typically, major catastrophes trigger surges in P/C impairments, pushing already vulnerable companies into financial failure. Such was seen with both hurricanes Hugo and Andrew, which hit three years apart. Allowing for the possible exception of a couple of smaller insurers that still may show up among the financially impaired, history does not seem to be repeating this time, thanks to particular financial and underwriting strength seen recently in the industry.

Coinciding with improving operating results, P/C insurers' financial impairments have shown a sharp downtrend in 2003-2005, with the failure rate in 2004 falling to the lowest level since 1996, and known 2005 impairments annualizing to an impairment rate even lower than in 2004, one that would tie 1996 for the lowest impairment rate since 1980. The final number for 2005, however, may well be higher or lower, but it is not likely to be significantly worse than the 2004 results.

The combined ratio--a core barometer of profitability, which historically has a high correlation with impairments--improved by 2.1 points to 98.1 in 2004, giving the industry its first underwriting profit since 1978. With the industry absorbing roughly $60 billion of new catastrophe losses in 2005, the year still may show an underwriting profit. Despite severe hurricane seasons, the past couple of years were less stressful for most insurers.

For 57 insurers (34 in 2003, 17 in 2004, six in the first half of 2005), however, the improved operating environment could not amend for past sins. These companies were too far under water, primarily from past inadequate pricing practices and reserve deficiencies, to ride the wave of recovery. Still, the 2004 impairment frequency rate, at 0.49% or 1-in-204 companies, was roughly 60% of the average impairment rate for the entire 37-year history of A.M. Best's proprietary P/C impairment database. If 2005's impairment rate annualizes normally, the prospective 0.35% impairment rate, or 1-in-286 companies, would be at slightly more than 40% of the historical norm.

The characteristics of an impaired company in 2003-2005 remained consistent with prior studies: Small and young companies were typical among the impairments, as were stock companies and those writing commercial lines business. Deficient loss reserves/inadequate pricing also remained the primary cause of impairment.

While 2005 is likely to be profitable again for P/C insurers, a number of issues remain that contribute to a potentially volatile operating environment. These include a $59 billion industry loss reserve deficiency, courtesy of the prior soft market; signs of increasing price competition; and rising claims severity, particularly from asbestos and environmental liabilities, factors that have the potential of putting upside pressure on impairments.

BestWeek subscribers can download a PDF copy of all full special reports at no additional cost or a combination of the PDF copies plus all related spreadsheet files of the report data at no additional cost from our Web site at www.bestweek.com.

Nonsubscribers can download a PDF copy of the full special report (12 pages) for $50 or a combination of the PDF copy plus the spreadsheet file of the report data for $100 from our Web site at www.bestweek.com.

Call Customer Service for more information, [phone], ext. 5742.

A.M. Best Co., established in 1899, is the world's oldest and most authoritative insurance rating and information source.

[8para] 14/12/2005 09:21

Looks very wobbly IMO

[paddyfool] 13/12/2005 17:41

We dont need no time at all, we're just waiting for the hammer to fall!