Airtel Africa Share Discussion Threads

[peddlers] 19/2/2024 12:06

I'm guessing those who are short will need to cover sooner or later.
It's fundamentally a solid company with high roce and large predicted profits moving forward.
The chart does look as though the recent selling is overdone
From the stock Report it's looking very cheap sub £1.
A real bargain imo

P.

[1knocker] 19/2/2024 11:40

The movements are pretty extreme.

My own experience:-
bought June 2020 at 59
sold half June 2022 at 134
current price 95

I don't think the investment case has risen and fallen sufficiently to justify such extreme movement over 3.5 years, but I am inclined to think that it was more overbought at 134 than it was oversold at 59, given the debt and currency problems.

One might be tempted to say 'Its just African', but a boring UK agricultural supplier Wynnstay has moved in as extreme a fashion too over a similar period - more than doubled, then gave up most of the gain. I think the moral is 'Its just this market'. Don't hesitate to take profits, and be patient before buying back. With WYNN, I started buying back too early ... I don't want to make that mistake twice.

[jane deer] 19/2/2024 11:22

Tiger. I can’t say I know what the market is afraid of but I can say what worries me (and stops me adding to my position at present):

1). AAF $debt. While the holdco $ debt is likely to be repaid in a few months (I think enough cash is already sitting there to pay it off), there is also significant debt at the local companies. Over time, AAF has been trying to move this into local currencies. The one subsidiary where I believe (DYOR) there is still aa significant amount of USD denominated debt is Nigeria, where I seem to remember reading that 20% of the debt was still USD denominated.


2). The scale of the devaluation of the Naira will clearly be inflationary. AAF’s costs (in Naira) will be increasing sharply. I am unclear if they have the ability to increase pricing proportionately - to what exent do they need approval from regulator/ Govt?


I am interested in adding but I need to get comfortable on these two points.

[tigerbythetail] 19/2/2024 10:12

I forget the percentage (dig in the annual report if you need the exact number), but it's quite a bit - Nigeria is AAF's biggest market by a distance.
What puzzles me is the devaluation of the naira (to the black market rate) is a one-off hit. And a sensible long-term economic reform.
All in all, I want exposure to the growth possibilities of a huge and vibrant (if chaotic) African market like Nigeria. So I don't get this share price movement at all - AAF is down 30% in a month. Happy to buy for the long term at these levels, though, so not complaining!

[farrugia] 19/2/2024 08:41

long term i agree but short-term market is afraid of the Nigerian exposure. I've built a stake in PZ Cussons and an initial smallish position here.

how much of Airtel's revenues come from Nigeria?

[tigerbythetail] 18/2/2024 13:43

I don't get this at all. The black market rate of the Nigerian naira was always the "true" rate, and the official rate was always fundamentally artificial.
The new President in Nigeria has devalued the official naira rate so that it now matches the black market rate - IMO a sensible economic reform.
Why on earth has this caused a massive plunge in AAF's share price? As far as I can tell, nothing about the business has essentially changed!
Oh, and a $100m buyback is roughly 2% of all shares in issue. Yes, that will make a difference.

[farrugia] 18/2/2024 10:00

how much of Airtel's revenues come from Nigeria?

[casholaa] 16/2/2024 14:52

US$100m buyback won't touch the sides, probably makes things worse.

[peddlers] 16/2/2024 14:24

Crikey I could have timed this one better.
Nearly 10% off in a week.
Still confident in holding though.

P.

[luweiluwei] 08/2/2024 21:51

IPO market showing signs of revival.
Mobile Money hidden inside AAF would likely be valued at more than the whole company when ipo'd.

[peddlers] 08/2/2024 08:15

Bought some AAF on the recent weakness.

Looking cheap at these levels

P.

[wmb194] 05/2/2024 15:08

Endless and huge currency related losses? The underlying business can look good but every set of results for quite some time now has a large currency devaluation and derivatives loss that largely wipes out its profits. You'd think it would have figured how to hedge its exposure by now.

Also, today Goldman Sachs reduced its price target to 1.29 pounds sterling from 1.35 pounds, while affirming its buy rating.

[welshblade1] 05/2/2024 14:55

Why such a bad few weeks with this share price. Results seemed ok..

[shepc] 31/1/2024 16:47

Added today, that large buy after close gives me hope, we'll see tomorrow morning

[wmb194] 30/1/2024 19:46

I'm not certain but today's fall may be related to year another huge currency depreciation in Nigeria, c.30%

[saltaire111] 30/1/2024 19:21

Rough few days!

[shepc] 26/1/2024 16:46

Update next weekI'm hoping no news means good update coming, should have dented debt too.

[dancing piranha] 31/10/2023 10:31

Yes you can.

[muckshifter] 30/10/2023 11:20

That looked a good set of results to me. The Naira depreciation was bad news but presumably the company's costs in Nigeria are mainly incurred in Naira as is their income. Annual growth rates of the order of 20% annually over five years, in a continent which has a young population with low, but fast growing, mobile phone / banking /data use has to be promising I believe.

[saltaire111] 30/10/2023 08:03

Even increased the divi!

Salty.

[saltaire111] 30/10/2023 08:03

Superb results. They’ve done well to offset the impact of the devaluation to that extent. Underlying business going gangbusters.

Salty.

[luweiluwei] 25/10/2023 08:57

IPO market dead again.
Until the Money spin off comes in sight, this probably doesn't go anywhere.

[pharmaboy3] 29/9/2023 11:08

1 million purchase just gone thru !