Andrada Mining Share Discussion Threads

[lasata] 24/2/2021 10:41

74Tom...interesting...thank you.

Are there any other LSE tin stocks?

[74tom] 23/2/2021 23:42

I did notice the negative cash cost but didn't realise that was the reason...

Also just reviewing their presentation from a couple of weeks ago & spotted the following line which really made me sit up;

"Total tonnes of ore reported in the JORC compliant MRE for V1V2 pegmatite body alone is greater than that reported for the historic reserve estimate over 16 historic pegmatite bodies"

The presentation link may have already been posted but if not it's here for newbies;

The process flow diagram on P20 is a classic example of how transparent these guys are, brilliant stuff.

[bobbieblock] 23/2/2021 20:04

74tom - that’s at negative cash cost if they get the planned tantalum and lithium production too

[koolio] 23/2/2021 17:22

Nice post 74tom. I totally agree with your views, only a week to wait for the update on production and progress. I only started buying here in the 2nd half of last year and slowly building a decent holding. As you said looks to be right in the sweet spot. They have delivered on all of their promises early and give huge confidence that will achieve 100M revenue within 4 years and could go much further.

[74tom] 23/2/2021 15:38

Spurred on by the rising tin price, I've crunched the numbers on ATM today. I've been aware of their scale up for some time, but never actually doing the groundwork to see how they were actually getting on. Very very impressed by their communication to the market. It is very transparent, informative & allows you to piece together a heck of a lot about their operation.

I'd say the key RNS to read is that of 16/06/20, as it contains detailed information around the four phase expansion plan. As per that RNS, the current capacity is as below;

"Stage I of the Phase 1 pilot plant envisages Run-Of-Mine ("ROM") ore crushed and beneficiated in a processing plant designed for a capacity of 566,400 tonnes per annum, to produce 787 tonnes of tin concentrate and 40 tonnes of tantalum concentrate."

Of particular interest are the figures provided for NPV for the phased expansion which include assumptions on tin price and calculate the first stage IRR. 2021 tin price was estimated as averaging 21k, with between 21-24k for the next 3 years. This gave an IRR or 60%. But increase tin prices 20% and the IRR rockets to 79%. At the current spot rate of 29k we are 38% above their 2021 assumptions...

In terms of revenue potential, half year to 31st Aug 2020 produced £1.1m. Now that full phase 1 ramp up has occurred along with increasing prices, in H2 2020 I expect revenues to come in between £4-4.2m. However, at current price & pilot nameplate production of 45t per month, we are looking at £1m a month revenue. Cash cost is noted as being $13900/T, so gross margin should be excellent.

Clearly the timing of increased production + price explosion in tin is potentially transformational for their future plans, as free cash flow will be significant at current levels and allow them to fast forward improvements. This will in turn create a virtuous cycle of increasing production = more revenue = more investment. They are right in the sweet spot.

The ultimate phase 2 goal of 5000T tin production per annum is of course a few years off, but the fact that at current prices that would generate $145m of revenue must surely help to re-rate ATM up towards a minimum of a £100m cap pending further progress. It certainly feels like a nailed on buy at 5p.

As always, do your own research & no investment advice is intended!

[lasata] 23/2/2021 10:04

Outlaw....interesting article.

Tin rising again today.

What tonnage do ATM produce annually?
Have they previously hedged any of this tonnage?

[lasata] 22/2/2021 13:29

Tin flying.......

[bobbieblock] 22/2/2021 10:47

10p? Roll on 20p. Still be only 160m market cap for all that metal in the ground. Especially if Tin prices keep going like this.

[ukgeorge] 22/2/2021 10:14

roll on 10p :)

[outlawinvestor] 22/2/2021 08:06

Tin continued flying in Shanghai with a sterling start to the week closing above RMB 192,000 - c. 8% up!

Looks like London is trying to keep up - WisdomTree Tin ETF printing offers above $50!

-----------------------------------

For anyone interested, Roskill are running a free webinar on Wed 24th titled The evolution of cathode chemistries covering "the global cathode materials industry from 6 perspectives: market, business, technology, economics, patents, and sustainability."

hxxps://roskill.com/event/the-evolution-of-cathode-chemistries/

[outlawinvestor] 19/2/2021 15:24

Pretty sure everyone here is now suffering from tin-price-surge fatigue!

So, apologies for piling on more pain but it appears tin futures contracts are running up over 4% as tracked by Bloomberg Tin Subindex. Familiar story on ShFE currently up over 2% following yesterday's 6%.

[outlawinvestor] 19/2/2021 07:58

ShFE April contract closed above CNY 181,000 - c. 6% up! Serious stuff!!

hxxp://www.shfe.com.cn/statements/tick/sn2104.jpg
hxxps://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3975934/Base-metals/MORNING-VIEW-Base-metals-prices-mostly-firmer-as-weaker-dollar-provides-support.html

At these levels previously uneconomical tin reserves become quite commercial so it's reasonable to expect more mine re-openings and miners exploiting lower grade reserves. But of course it will take some time for new supply to come online.

-------------------------------------------------

Apparently the Texas cold snap halted chip production in the state, threatening to exacerbate the global semiconductor shortage.

[lasata] 18/2/2021 09:55

Outlaw:

Thank you for tin output figures for ATM

[outlawinvestor] 18/2/2021 07:43

Tin futures contracts at the ShFE jumped on reopening. The most active contract (Apr maturity) was up 5.89%. Interestingly the 3 most active contracts (Mar, Apr & May) are in contango.

hxxp://www.shfe.com.cn/statements/tick/sn2104.jpg
hxxp://www.shfe.com.cn/en/products/Tin/

[outlawinvestor] 17/2/2021 17:21

Current nameplate capacity is 60 tonnes of tin concentrate per month targeting 60% contained tin. In November '20 they produced 63.9 tonnes concentrate with 41.6t contained tin (i.e. 65%).



According to Monday's RNS "the strong tin concentrate production levels have been maintained since November 2020."



The upcoming financial year (commencing March) will be their first year of production at full capacity and they are planning to expand capacity by 50%.

[lasata] 17/2/2021 15:58

Tin prices strong again today.

What is the tin annual tin production by ATM?

[lasata] 17/2/2021 15:07

Outlaw...interesting article ...thank you

"The ITA has said it expects global tin output to normalise this year, both in China and in the rest of the world. But it warned that supply would struggle if demand staged the same sort of sharp recovery seen ten years ago after the Global Financial Crisis

All the evidence points to just such a demand rebound and a supply chain that is now working hard to find units in the right place at the right time.

And time is of the essence for anyone short of LME tin because the worst sort of market squeeze is the one when no-one seems to have anything to spare."

[outlawinvestor] 17/2/2021 13:42

LME increases tin market monitoring as rampant spread tightness continues

"The LME has been undertaking enhanced market monitoring for several weeks, and has further options available to ensure continued market orderliness if these are required," an exchange spokeswoman told Fastmarkets in a statement on Tuesday.

"The LME notes current tightness in the tin market. At present, there is no indication that LME pricing has diverged from the underlying physical market," she said.

hxxps://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3975519/Tin/LME-increases-tin-market-monitoring-as-rampant-spread-tightness-continues.html

Should be interesting to see how Shanghai responds when markets reopen tomorrow following the long Lunar New Year holiday.

[3ootuk] 16/2/2021 20:04

Afrimet...
"... Also in Zug, Afrimet Resources has been created as an associated unit of steel trading house Vanomet, with Hadley Natus becoming its Senior Trader in tin. He comes from Zug-based metals house MRI Trading, put up for sale recently in divestment plans for the CWT International arm of Chinese conglomerate HNA. Hadley previously worked for Trafigura, first as a senior traffic operator in copper concentrates and latterly managing business development at the group’s Impala warehousing and logistics outfit in Johannesburg... "

I think working in Africa needs a different mindset to Europe, and the highest anticorruption standards have to be maintained. It looks like Afrimet are a trusted partner, and Uis is potentially a massive deal for them. Now we just have to deliver on the tantalum side.

[fullbreakfast] 16/2/2021 18:40

^ No sweat! The Tantalex info is a little confusing, perhaps Natus "founded" this subsidiary by getting hired at Vanomet / Afrimet and bringing some contacts / clients with him.

[shieldbug] 16/2/2021 18:26

Full Breakfast

I apologise for the misinformation. If I had read the RNS more closely I would have seen that Afrimet is a subsidiary of Vanomet.

Instead I picked up some misleading information elsewhere. It states that "Mr. Natus founded AfriMet Resources Ag in 2019" in the Tantalex corporate presentation January 2021. Hadley Natus is the chairman of Tantalex.

hxxps://www.tantalex.ca/corporate-presentation

Clearly it is possible to "found" a business unit or a subsidiary as well as a start up company etc.

[fullbreakfast] 16/2/2021 17:13

I do wonder whether Afrimet is a company set up to trade Afritin's Tantalum.

The founder of Afrimet is Hadley Natus previously worked for MRI Trading where he had some previous with Afrtin.

I can't see anything nefarious in this state of affairs. Everything on the Afrimet website is the kind of thing you would want to hear.

According to this site:

hxxps://www.moneyhouse.ch/en/company/afrimet-resources-ag-3741439421

Afrimet Resources AG was incorporated in Switzerland in 2007. Named management are Ruedi Mathis, Dr Niklas Lang, Peter Eichinger, Hadley Jareth Natus and Marco Honauer.

[mold breaker] 16/2/2021 16:52

Some chunky late buys showing... should open 5.10-5.20

[mold breaker] 16/2/2021 15:54

Many reasons I invested here.. but one of the reasons that stuck out... average time for Tin miners from exploration to full production 12 years, most don’t make it. Afritin well positioned to take advantage of near all time high tin prices. DYOR.