African Copper Share Discussion Threads

[hiram abiff] 27/2/2011 20:01

...........with all the ACU silence wrt RNS updates, I suspect something substantial is happening behind the scenes. ZCI will want a good return on the huge loan which keeps ACU afloat, even though the rate of interest is high (to reflect the risk). However, at some point given that global recovery is now increasing and the price of cu rocketing, european and US demand will be looking to 'future buy' for cost stability; helping cash flow for ACU and moving the share price north. Of course at some point such competitive demand may make it more logical to buy up some of those shares from ZCI - at a handsome return on their investment, thus providing supply stability for an increasingly rarer commodity.

With the world obsessed with climate change / renewable energy to replace fossil fuel (power generation and road transport etc), cu producers will be able to demand cost premiums and control where supplies are deliverd to (ie forward selling). I suspect that behind the scenes 'a game is a foot' wrt heavy user nations (India / China etc) to secure cost managed supplies of cu.

Perhaps all the recent selling will result in an RNS wrt a new large shareholder.

DYOR

HAb

[harrodsfree] 23/2/2011 16:44

It would be less painful to drill an 8mm hole in the back of my head.

[outsourcer] 23/2/2011 08:38

its been 5 months since a production update !

[outsourcer] 17/2/2011 08:48

an operations update would be good right now, as we are now back below 5p, yet world copper prices are still at record levels. I would say the investor relations dept need a kick up the a@se, but I guess when ZCI own over 80% they don't really care about us PI's

[seagreen] 09/2/2011 15:12

Happy to wait for ACU to catch up another well known traded AIM stock 8-)

Very curious about the recent IPO CDC which seems to have been shorted below its IPO price ...humungous lump of copper just have to have patience

[p1ncer] 09/2/2011 14:05

Copied from a post on iii, but it puts things into perspective

"Are any of you invested in FML? I'm Invested in both, very newly to ACU

Both companies are very comparable as they are:
Both are producing this year
Aiming for 30k tonnes CU production in 2013 (FML 25k tonnes)
ZCI holds 82% of the shares in issue, for FML management hold 75%,with one individual holding over 50%
Both have been stuck in a trading range

Big difference is that its market cap for FML is £150m, while ACU is £40. FML does have much bigger copper reserves though and are also aiming for production of 40k ounces of gold by 2013. However copper production over the next 5 years should be very similar and ACU looks like a real bargain at these prices."

[p1ncer] 09/2/2011 12:23

What share on the AIM is run by democracy?

I actually think it provides us with more security, rather than been run by crooks and charlatans, it's run by the people who own it (or at least a large chunk of it)rather than incompetent directors who are only interested in their over inflated paycheck, so they have a very direct interest in ACU performing.


ZCI have not shown any sinister intent so far in there dealings, and seem keen to get ACU up to maximum production levels, and explore new areas.

I would suspect they may sell down some of their holding at some stage, but thats just my feeling and I could be wrong.

[seabass] 09/2/2011 10:46

I have been looking at ACU for sometime. The worry for me is ZCI's 85% holding. Does this not leave PI's without control of democracy? Other views please.

[p1ncer] 09/2/2011 10:01

Outsourcer,

Look at the figures they have already published, unless they have gone backwards they should be steadilly increasing production.

As fot the % CI hold, if they wanted full ownership they would have done it by now.
From our perspective it's market cap that matters.

The debt is not massive looking at potential earnings.

Though I do agree the next production figures will give a clearer picture.

Also remember they are prospecting other area's.

Taking everything into account, I still think this is the most undervalued copper play on the AIM.

[anusol] 09/2/2011 09:52

But Im assuming unimpressive production figures are priced into the current SP, otherwise we'd be tracking the CU prices upwards?

[outsourcer] 09/2/2011 09:27

it would have been nice after telling us they had diluted our holding yet again, increased the borrowing from ZCI to over $50M, increased their holding to around 85% to have said, but dont worry because production figures of late have been stellar, their silence about the production figures tells me that they aren't very impressive

[anusol] 09/2/2011 08:12

Thanks pincer, let's hope it turns soon then.
RNS today - happy to see more loans from ZCI if it means they get more output out the ground quicker, as now is the time to maximise production! lEss happy about ZCI upping it's holding to 85% but we're already at their mercy even at 82%...

[anusol] 08/2/2011 09:45

frustrating though - copper at an all time high, yet this donkey languishes below its pre production price back in spring 2009 !

[p1ncer] 07/2/2011 16:37

Unlike another 'well traded copper stock' ACU are actually mining and selling increasing amounts of copper!

As you say, when people see a Copper company mining $100m worth of copper a year, at some point they will come flooding!

I'm happy to hold and top up whenever I can at these prices.

[seagreen] 07/2/2011 15:28

Seems a tad off teh clock in comparison with another well known traded copper stock 8-)

looks a multi bagger in waiting time to add before the fruit flies wake up imho, dyor, nag etc

[p1ncer] 06/2/2011 15:17

Outsourcer,
WTI could have start up problems like ACU.

We have and are continuing to deal with various issues, but production is increasing, I would expect production to now start increasing more significantly.
Particularly once the rainy season is out of the way.

I see ACU being worth £150m + in the medium term, just on the discovered assets.

[outsourcer] 05/2/2011 11:22

P1ncer - I know all this, I hold 600K shares (I had to sell 100K at a loss to cover a margin call) and have been sat on a loss for most of the time I have owned them, but no matter what production figures they put the share price hardly ever moves. I did hold WTI but sold my holding around christmas having more than doubled my money and you are right they aren't even mining and I would guess as soon as they start their price will rocket because it just seems to be a better managed and run company than ACU are

[p1ncer] 04/2/2011 23:21

Outsourcer,

ACU must be the cheapest copper producer on the AIM by a country mile!

Look at these production figures, they are increasing month on month, they produced double the amount of copper in Q2 to Q1, then had a dip in Sep due to different Ore from Thakuda.
The say they have addressed this, and the figures show they have increased again in OCT/Nov.

If you include Thakuda they should be able to beat their best Month )Aug).
I would hope they would be producing more than 600 mt copper per month by now.

They are increasing production, and yet no where near full capacity, but they are moving in the right direction.

Q2 nearly double of Q1; and looks like Q3 will beat Q2.

I would expect Q4 to increase again!

They are increasing production, just as prices are rising, and warehouse stocks are falling,

Happy to sit and hold these and not worry.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------- July Aug. Sept. Half Oct/Nov
Description ---------Qtr 1 2010 2010 2010 Qtr 2 Year 2010(i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ore processed (Mt) 146,052 55,607 70,206 47,499 173,312 319,364 117,757
Cu grade (%) -------1.20 1.02 1.17 1.60 1.24 1.23 1.46
Recovery (%) ------34.1 45.7 68.1 47.7 55.0 45.6 45.5
Concentrate
produced (Mt) -------- 2,641 1,195 2,317 1,762 5,274 7,915 3,770
Copper produced in ------ 607 259 561 363 1,183 1,790 782
Concentrate (Mt)
Payable copper
sold (Mt) ------------- 482 192 574 348 1,113 1,595 612
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

[p1ncer] 04/2/2011 18:28

Outsourcer,
They have increased production, and are continuing to do so, they have had an issue with the ore from Thakuda but it seems they are able to deal with this.

WTI are valued at more than ACU, they haven't even started production yet, and have less copper.

ACU are mining from two mines, and have further areas to explore.

As production go's up, costs come down.

They have taken some steps to deal with the rainy season so hopefully production will not be affected as much as last year.

[outsourcer] 04/2/2011 11:59

we must be due an operations update soon, I wonder if the rainy season will have impacted production figures.

my concern is that with copper nearing £10K/tonne and some reckon it could hit £12K/tonne, ACU aren't getting production figures released to get the share price moving and they aren't doing this becuase things aren't looking good.

[p1ncer] 02/2/2011 22:39

"While many of the production bottlenecks were proactively addressed during the six month period ended 30 September 2010 the Mowana plant saw the introduction of highly oxidized ore from the Thakadu deposit which required different plant set-up and settings while the processing characteristics of the oxide ore were understood. Due to the demands of responding to these challenges, production related costs consequently increased. The Company does not believe that the operating results for this period of production will be indicative of those it will achieve over time, after the plant is operated at full commercial levels."

So according to this they have sorted out most of the issues, but have had to amend things due to oxide ore comming in from Thakuda.
However the oxide ore from Thakuda is only the first part of the ore being mined, afer that it should be more compatible.

There are other companies not yet at the production stage, that are valued at similar or more than ACU and they have yet to face the problems that we have already overcome.

I would expect at least 1.000 tonnes a month to be breached comfortably this year, and with the copper price predicted to be very strong over the next couple of years, it is dificult to see the share price hold below 10p-15p, and over longer temr this should be above 20p in my opinion.

dyor
aimho

[p1ncer] 02/2/2011 22:17

If they have all the problems behind them, and they get production up to expected levels, of 20k tonnes p/a, from Mowena and more from Thakuda then the revenues should ensure the share price is significantly higher than it is now.

The next 6 to 12 months should be the time that ACU comes good.

Seems a good investment to me

Though anyone investing should do their own research as it is your money yuou lose.

[kosyboy] 02/2/2011 21:48

Do you think this will rocket??