 Angolan Assets - Bought for a net $9.7m.
* Net 6,800 bopd Production - @ $23/bbl Opex.
* 3.5 billion bbls oil in place
* Net 52 mmbbls - 2P + 2C Reserves and Resources
* Potential to double P2 Reserves at low cost
* No infill wells drilled for >10 years - Over 20 opportunities identified
* $50 million @ $75/bbl Brent - Annual Asset Cash Generation
* 20% Long Term Effective Tax Rate
* 5 Year Development Plan to increase production by >100% to 40,000+ bopd(Gross) by 2028
Fundamentals good enough to turn any self respecting trader into a 'buy and hold' value/growth Investor, where the real money is made!
This excellent video interview with the CEO and CFO should be required watching for any shareholder or prospective investor:
'With these initial transactions, we have successfully proved our suitability
as a credible counterparty for divesting IOCs/NOCs, our ability to deliver high value accretive deals, and to fund these types of deals through smart deal making.
The market dynamics in Africa continue to support our inorganic growth strategy and we are actively screening compelling opportunities that meet with our commercial criteria. We look forward to updating the market through what will be an active year ahead for Afentra.'
'Selected as the preferred bidder for 45% non-operating equity in both KON15 and KON19 located in the Kwanza Basin onshore Angola.'......Very low-cost entry with significant potential upside.
To be awarded preferred bidder status for a 45% working interest in these two blocks by ANPG the National Concessionaire (Granting Authority), with Sonangol, the Angolan NOC as operator, is no mean feat.....and a good steer as to the likely prospectively, as it was rubber stamped by these blocks receiving the most tender offers.
It is inconceivable that Sonangol will not have been given first pick of these blocks as operator in the most recent licensing round. So, for Afentra to have been selected as a preferred bidder and awarded a huge 45% working interest is a major thumbs up with respect to the management's professionalism and competence in establishing itself as a highly credible counter party and partner - this will surely have not been missed by other divesting IOC's in Angola, and across the wider African continent.
AIMHO/DYOR |
Afentra - up there with the very best at sweating it's management and staff assets for its shareholders!
Employees v Market Cap(M/C)
M/C per employee
$11.01 million - Afentra: 13 Employees & $144m M/C
$7.87 million - Exxon Mobil: 62,000 Employees & $488bn M/C
$4.11 million - Valeura Energy: 196 Employees & $806m M/C
$3.71 million - Serica Energy: 200 Employees & $745m M/C
$2.81 million - Petrotal: 161 Employees & $451m M/C
$2.65 million - Arrow Exp: 34 Employees & $93m M/C
$1.96 million - Shell: 103,000 Employees and $204bn M/C
$1.53 million - Savannah Energy: 276 Employees & $423m M/C
$0.94 million - Touchstone Exp: 86 Employees & 81m M/C
$0.79 million - BP: 88,000 Employees and $70bn M/C
$0.46 million - Enquest: 681 Employees & $313m M/C
$0.41 million - Jadestone Energy: 409 Employees & $170m M/C
Having a large diversified asset portfolio and operatorship of many of the assets are variables that tend to lower the m/c per employee, particularly where the assets are located in low employee cost regions of the world. Regardless, it has not stopped the world's largest O&G company Exxon Mobil from performing extremely well in this respect. |
Angolan Assets - Investment Case: Like to regularly remind myself of the incredible scale, enormous development potential and size of the investment return on offer from these world class shallow water assets bought for a net $9.7 million - in one of the best second phase asset deals I've researched over the last 15-20 years.
Angola Block 3/05(30%) and 3/05A(21.33%)
Vast underdeveloped world class shallow water assets starved from mid life(for 10-15 years) of production development funds with substantial potential to replace reserves, increase recovery and commercialise nat gas emissions.
Scale of the Prize - 3.5 billion bbls oil in place
▪ 9 fields
▪ 3 undeveloped discoveries
▪ 17 installations
▪ 157 wells
Block 3/05 (30.00%)
▪ >3 billion bbls
▪ 42% Recovery to date - Target: 50%
▪ 108 mmbo 2P
Block 3/05A (21.33%)
▪ 300 million bbls
▪ 1% Recovery to date - Target: greater than 30%
▪ 33 mmbo 2C
Production Development Plan - Gross Figure
▪ 18,600 bopd - 2022 Effective Economic Date of Asset Purchase
▪ 20,180 bopd - 2023 Actual
▪ 22,701 bopd - 2024/H1
▪ 23,500 bopd - 2025
▪ 26,500 bopd - 2026
▪ 31,500 bopd - 2027
▪ 41,000 bopd - 2029
2023
$23/bbl - Opex (Target $20/bbl by 2025)
$3/bbl - Capex
$8/bbl - Three years investment programme to upgrade infrastructure facilities.
2023 Four Phase Production Development Programme:
2023 Onwards - Stabilise and Sustain Production @ circe 23,000 bopd Gross
2026 Onwards - Optimise Operational Wells and Infrastructure
2027 Onwards - Increase Recovery through Infill Drilling
2028 Onwards - Develop Satellite Discoveries
2024 - Work Programme Ongoing into 2025
Water Injection
▪ 33,000 bwpd in 2023
▪ Targeting 60,000 bwpd in 2024
▪ >150,000 bwpd long term - half current design capacity of the machinery
Field Management
▪ Uptime 87% in 2023
▪ Targeting >90% in 2025
▪ Comprehensive upgrades of installations
Light Well Interventions - Adding 150 bopd per intervention
▪ 40 interventions
▪ $500k per LWI
▪ Payback <8 weeks @ $75/bbl
Gas lifts - Adding 75-150 bopd per well
▪ Assessing 10 interventions
▪ $300k per activity
▪ Payback <10 weeks @ $75/bbl
Ongoing optimisation of well portfolio can deliver 5,000+ bopd
Sustaining production will generate $50m p.a. @ $75/bbl cash flow at asset level
Heavy Workovers - Adding 500-700 bopd per well
▪ Assessing 10 workovers
▪ $14m per activity
▪ Payback < 2 years @ $75/bbl
ESP’s - Adding 400-500 bopd per well
▪ Assessing 20 candidates
▪ $15m per activity
▪ Payback 2-3 years @ $75/bbl
2026 - Opportunity - 2026 onwards
▪ No infill wells drilled for > 10 years
▪ Over 20 opportunities identified
▪ Initial drilling planned for 2026/2027
Multiple phases of Infill Drilling can potentially add 500-2,000 bopd per well
2027 - Satellite Discoveries
▪ Can deliver up to 10,000 bopd through phased development
Data Source: Latest Presentation + Company & Field Partner Results |
Well, I must be the original Grand Old Duke of York.
Buying a big chunk of AET (SEY) in Autumn 2003 and watching my investment rise and rise, only to see it fall and fall, after what turned out to be incompetent geotechnical assessments.
I share others' optimism though with the current management, set-up and prospects |
Closing trade of 34.7k at full 51.6p Ask price.....comfortably above the printed settlement price of the majority of today's trades. |
my first buy of sterling energy was 20-09 2006
Sold them 2 months later for a small profit
Never touched them again |
We're on the same hymn-sheet, MT!
From today's depeches de Brazzaville, Congo- Brazzaville (C-B)'s 'newspaper of record'
Trident Energy, active in Brazil and Equatorial Guinea, has taken over Chevron's (relinquished) assets in C-B, along with some Total minority stakes.
.."the new operator intends to take over all the assets, Chevron's staff, its contracts and employees. ‘In addition to Chevron, we are also buying shares in Nkossa and Nsoko from Total. We're going to be the operator of this mature field
which still needs to be developed. Current production of what we are buying is more than 15,000 barrels’, said Didier Mutti, Trident CEO".
More detail here
hxxps://www.trident-energy.com/news-and-media/39/trident-energy-enters-the-republic-of-congo-with-strategic-deal
Trident is described elsewhere as a 'mature field specialist'.
GLA |
Extrader - 'A New Gas Master Plan, set to be implemented alongside the national gas company, will play a crucial role in driving growth, while the introduction of a New Gas Code will unlock opportunities for the commercialization of stranded assets and flared gas.'
Does has the appearance of Angola Mark 2!
With the Block 3/05 Field Partners currently developing a plan to commercialise its stranded assets and flared gas - Afentra's interest may well have been triggered by C-B following the copybook of Angola to rejuvenate it O&G industry, by offering financially attractive opportunities to commercially develop both its marginal fields and deep water prospects.
The C-B 2025 Licensing Round puts plenty of meat on the bone in this connection:
'The Republic of Congo's upcoming licensing round is poised to invigorate the oil and gas industry by stimulating exploration and production activities. While the specific blocks to be offered in the 2025 licensing round have not yet been disclosed, the government's strategy includes offering a diverse selection of both deepwater and marginal fields.
This approach is designed to attract international oil companies (IOCs) with the technical expertise and financial capacity to develop deepwater resources, as well as local and independent companies better suited to exploit marginal fields – specifically those typically considered to be too small for IOCs.'
Suspect Paul Dade is likely to be attending the conference to show support for the Government's O&G Industry's ambitious production development plan and to further develop relationships with its leading representatives, with a view to identifying and securing a 'Block 3/05' opportunity from among the high potential marginal fields that will inevitably be put up for auction in the 2025 Licensing Round or, via a special deal separate to the auction lots, as some interesting O&G Blocks in Angola and Colombia have recently been secured with very attractive operating terms and highly competitive taxation arrangements by the likes of Exxon and Parex Resources.
AIMHO/DYOR |
Another tanker at Palanca Sonangol Njinga Mande. Presumably a sonangol shuttle tanker to refinery |
Last years January Operations and Financial update, which was very good, took the share price from around 37p to 60p at it's high.
Hoping for an excellent update again !
ODR |
Hi MT,
Re AET opportunities in Africa, I see that AET's CEO McDade will be a speaker at this upcoming forum in Congo-Brazzaville:
hTTps: congoenergyinvestment.com/
Q : Why Congo ?
A : A New Gas Master Plan, set to be implemented alongside the national gas company, will play a crucial role in driving growth, while the introduction of a New Gas Code will unlock opportunities for the commercialization of stranded assets and flared gas.
May just be (1) C-B looking to copy Angola's playbook and/or (2) an opportunity for AET to network and 'fly the flag/show willing', of course.
He's in some interesting company, on the face of it :
hTTps: congoenergyinvestment.com/attend/conference-speakers
C-B is trying to get its act together and be more (Western) investor-friendly, the national oilco has been (mis)managed by kleptocrats, so I'd have decidedly mixed feelings about AET getting involved, but where there's asymmetry there's opportunity...
ATB |
Surged through the 200 DMA on very strong Friday volume - downtrend broken - next technical target the 60p spring 2024 high, hit following closure of the third Angolan deal. |
tim000 - Afentra issued an Operations and Financial Update for 2023 together with a detailed Operations Plan for 2024 and beyond on 24th January 2024. As Croasfc suggested, the forward timetable looks set up for a similar comprehensive Ops Update around the same time in January 2025. |
Do we know when an update is likely? I recall they were due to restart oil sales in December. Time to resume M&A? |
Encouraging to see the commodity analysts at Standard Chartered split from the Wall Street pack, and go beyond the view expressed here in Q4/2024, that the dramatic slowdown in U.S. oil production growth witnessed in 2024 will continue, by forecasting declines in both 2025 and 2026.
Standard Chartered: U.S. Oil Production Growth To Decline In 2025 - Oilprice.com - 8th Jan 2025
'According to StanChart, last year witnessed a sharp slowdown in non-OPEC+ supply growth from 2.46 mb/d in 2023 to 0.79 mb/d in 2024, primarily caused by a reduction in U.S. total liquids growth from 1.605 mb/d in 2023 to 734 kb/d in 2024.
StanChart expects this trend to continue, with U.S. liquids growth expected to clock in at just 367 kb/d in 2025 before slowing down further to 151 kb/d in 2026. With US production expected to fall over the next two years
Stanchart says the U.S. slowdown and a long tail of declines will keep non-OPEC supply growth well below 1 mb/d over the next couple of years despite some areas of solid growth in Brazil, Canada and Guyana. In other words, there’s no inevitable supply glut coming as many traders feared in 2024.
Meanwhile, StanChart has reported that the oil market sentiment appears to have improved significantly over the past month, particularly among hedge funds. StanChart's proprietary crude oil money-manager positioning index has risen for three successive weeks; in the latest data it rose 15.0 w/w to a 24-week high of -2.1. StanChart's positioning index for the ICE Brent contract is now positive after climbing 17.8 w/w to a 30-week high of +6.0. The improvement in sentiment has accompanied a gradual trend in higher oil prices.
According to StanChart, front-month Brent has managed a run of nine consecutive intraday highs, noting that the longest such run since the start of the contract was 12 achieved in 1988.
After weakening in Q3 2024, global oil demand appears to have strengthened in the fourth quarter. StanChart has calculated that global demand averaged 103.291 mb/d in October, a y/y increase of 1.366 mb/d accelerating from September’s tepid 366 kb/d growth. Growth was boosted by strong U.S. demand, which increased 379 kb/d y/y to 21.01 mb/d. This marks the strongest U.S. demand since August 2019 and the third-highest monthly average on record.' |
Get the feeling the imminent January update is going to be v good indeed |
Extrader - 'heavy hitters' - a good point. A statement move to engage a Premiership outfit with the set up, management, means and resources to match Afentra's growth aspirations?
'Afentra - the upstream oil and gas company focused on acquiring production and development assets in Africa, announces the appointment of Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited as the Company's new Nominated Adviser and Joint Broker, effective on 8th January 2025.'
Reading between the lines:
By using the terminology: "...focused on acquiring production and development assets in Africa..."
Rather than say '...focused on acquiring African production and development assets and monetising the organic growth potential of our asset portfolio...'
Strongly suggests the next acquisition has been identified and is of a substantial size, necessitating the appointment of a heavy hitting Premier League Broker/Nomad like Stifel to guide and assist with the delivery of the deal.
AIMHO/DYOR |
Looks like the next leg up is in the breeze.
Thanks.
BTC |
Heavy hitters.
hxxps://investor.com/rias/stifel-nicolaus-company-793
Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, registered in 1975, serves 52 state(s) with a licensed staff of 3,271 advisors. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company manages $149.2 billion and provides investment advisory services for 211,856 clients (1:65 advisor/client ratio).
The Group AUM are abt $ 350 billion.
Tennyson is part of Shard Capital Partners LLP, with approx £ 1Bn in AUM.
AFAICS
ATB |
Big announcement today.Reflects the company's intention in my view. |
There was me thinking, RNS, no wonder price going up, someone leaked it. Doh, wrong again. |
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