Interesting comment heard on a video from Jared Dillian. (no comments pls!)
He heard from Goldmans that Hedge Funds have the largest short oil equities position of the last 10 years and still pressing, very crowded trade.
Obviously he's talking book and expects a large rally. But even OXY is suffering despite Buffet buying billions! AET seems very underpinned here. |
 An article in 'The Africa Report' this month on the African O&G Industry has some interesting comments from Paul McDade with respect to possible future plans for Block 3/05 in addition to those previously announced and, the possible rationalisation of an asset now considered surplus to requirement.
'McDade is also discussing plans to export gas from block 3/05 with Sonangol. Moves by Angola to start exporting gas are an important development, he says. “A leg of Angola’s future is putting more emphasis on gas.”
One asset that Afentra may be willing to sell is in Somaliland, where the company has a 34% carried interest in the onshore Odewayne Block. This was inherited as part of the cash shell. The interest doesn’t cost Afentra anything to hold, but the company “could look at divesting it,” McDade says. “We’re looking to rationalise that asset.”
Nigeria, McDade says, is more developed than Angola in terms of local capacity. Angola’s largest private oil company is Etu Energias, formerly called Somoil. The company has a strong track record, but beyond that, there is “limited”; technical and financial capacity among local players, McDade says. He’s keen to work with smaller Angolan companies to facilitate knowledge transfer. “There’s a need to create more local champions.”
"There’s a need to create more local champions.”....Smart move, which can only further enhance Afentra's relationship as a trusted partner with the divesting NOC Sonangol and, National Concessionaire ANPG created to spearhead Angola’s oil and gas revitalisation. |
Selective use of numbers. It went over 60p for maybe two days, and hasn't since gone below about 44p IIRC. As for timescales, I'd be happy if it gets to a quid within 2 years, I'd call a circa 40% annual return quite acceptable, as would most people. The current oil price "drama" is the usual noise that forns a continual backdrop to the sector, giving more power to news releases rather than the hefty cash AET is generating. |
I've been here since 15p but when you see the investment drop from 60p to potentially 40p that is a £200k swing in my account and if it drops further then the upside on the next deal is not as impactful. The aim of the game is to sell this for £1.50 plus but if the share price keeps falling then you end up holding a lot longer than planned. The risk is a lower annual yield for me over a greater timeframe and geopolitical risks ruining the investment in the meantime. I remain positive but the deal flow is slow compared to RRE and that's my personal benchmark for AET to perform against. Moan over! |
d35 - 'AET really need to press on with the next deal to keep market interested.'
For the short term market maybe - however, I suspectmost 'buy and hold' investors, many of whom have already seen their patience rewarded by more than doubling or tripling their original investment, will be more interested in the management taking their time to secure the most appropriate and accretive deal for the company at this stage of its development.
In this connection the management and shareholders have time on their side, as since the closing of the third Angolan deal in April, the existing assets have been generating an average of circa $17 million a month of very lowly taxed oil sales revenue.
AIMHO/DYOR |
Oil price not helping and articles saying Saudi going to increase production to take market share. AET really need to press on with the next deal to keep market interested. |
Bought a few more today. Couldn't resist it.
Thanks.
BTC |
'Net cash end Sept $2.4m after repaying $5.3m on RBL.'
'AET is set to be in a net cash position in H2, probably in late Q3, at the present level of production and oil price.' - posted early Aug 2024
Encouraging to see that Afentra has such straightforward and stable revenue, opex, cash flows and effective tax rate, even someone like me with only a modest knowledge of accountancy, is able to forecast the net cash position with reasonable accuracy. |
Net cash end Sept $2.4m after repaying $5.3m on RBL. |
hTTps://afentraplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024.09-Afentra-Investor-Presentation-Updated.pdf |
AET - AFENTRA PLC RATED NEW BUY AT CANACCORD; PT 80 PENCE so I'm told |
When considering the licence extension of Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A to 2040, the greatly improved fiscal terms to maximise recovery from mid/late life assets, a long term 20% effective tax rate and, the low cost 40,000 bopd gross development potential of these huge capex starved 3.5 billion OIP blocks - it would not be unreasonable to consider these acquisitions to be closer to mid life than late life assets.
Therefore, it was a remarkable achievement for the Afrenta management to pick up these exceptional quality, very high cash generating assets for a net $9.7m - and outrageous good fortune for investors when considering the management by completion paid just 9 cents on the dollar of the headline price!
These ridiculously cheap extremely high quality assets are certain to act as the principle source of funding over the next decade to drive growth both organically and through M&A.
AIMHO/DYOR |
I did some very rough calculations based on latest info and if you assume 10yr asset life then abex worked out at approx $3 per barrel which I thought was pretty reasonable. When invested in RRE everyone was moaning about the abex all the time but they didn't understand that extending the asset life has a material impact on operational cashflow and associated abex. There's also a lot of work being done around leaving subsea infrastructure in place to form reefs and create new native environments and lots of new technologies that reduce the abex cost so it's not all bad! |
Hi For the decom reservation slush fund details the best place to look ( as well as a load of other good info ) is the aim readmission document on page 27 where the decom liability is covered, you can find it on the afentra website, there are 554m usd in the fund held by sonangol as of mid 2023 |
Tremendous performance from assets purchased for a net $9.7m - well done to the Board.
To be in a zero net debt position within 3 months of completing the third of the Block 3/05 deals which collectively had a headline price of $117 million is outstanding and, bodes very well considering the extremely high cash generating and low cost production development potential of these tier one assets at $50 oil.
AIMHO/DYOR |
Opex was circa $24 and the capex plus abex makes up the remainder and the reserved funds growth can be seen in the company information to give you a rough idea about proportions. |
Any idea as to what proportion of $35 is allocated to Abex?
dragon3512 Sep '24 - 08:10 - 566 of 567
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And the $35 cost per barrel includes reserved funds for abex so it’s covered in that anyway. |
It does show up in long term liabilities and the language is such that it conveys funds are not held by operator in advance. Why else would it be a long term liability if the funds were already allocated?
Could you please guide me as to where it specifies the funds are already held by the operator. Thank you
Non-current liabilities
Provisions (11) $130,919,000
catsick12 Sep '24 - 07:59 - 565 of 566
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The decom is a non issue, there is a future li to clean up and there is a cash reserve held by the operator to cover, what is likely is that as the life of the field is extended the funds held to pay for cleaning up are more and more than needed , aet inherited this share of the cash held when they took over the share of the field, its a total non issue and a cost they don’t have to pay in for that a new development would need to |
And the $35 cost per barrel includes reserved funds for abex so it's covered in that anyway. |
The decom is a non issue, there is a future liability to clean up and there is a cash reserve held by the operator to cover, what is likely is that as the life of the field is extended the funds held to pay for cleaning up are more and more than needed , aet inherited this share of the cash held when they took over the share of the field, its a total non issue and a cost they don't have to pay in for that a new development would need to |
The planned three-week shutdown on Block 3/05 facilities will start on 13 September. The shutdown is to conduct maintenance work across all platforms and infrastructure to enable improved field performance.
H2 2024 Average Production will be lower. Surprised that AET didn't include updated guidance for 2024 production.
return_of_the_apeman12 Sep '24 - 07:54 - 562 of 563
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"Afentra management believes there is potential to deliver a step-change in production to in excess of 30,000 bopd gross"
"On price protection, we will be looking to build out the oil hedge program we have successfully put in place for our February, June and August liftings. In respect of our projected Q4 2024 lifting we have placed a combination of puts (230,000 bbls at $70/bbl floor) and zero cost collars (170,000 bbls, $70/bbl floor / $90.40/bbl ceiling)" |
Share Price - AET-> 44.6
AET Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 24.1p on 15 Sep 23-> 85.06%
AET Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 62.2p on 11 June 24-> -28.30%
Brent-> $71.50
Shares Outstanding-> 220,053,520
Market Cap (GBP)-> £98,143,870
GBPUSD-> 1.305
Market Cap (USD)-> $128,077,750
Production Average HY 2024-> 6,696
Production Average FY 2023-> 4,478
Production Average FY 2022-> 5,970
Cash (30 Jun 24)-> $13,800,000
Net Debt (30 June 24) -> $46,400,000
Net Debt Post Q3 Crude Lifting (12 Sep 24) -> $0
AET Next Crude Cargo (~550,000bbls) in late Q4 24 / early Q1 25.at $75 Brent Subtract 6% Petroleum Tax (As per HY Results 24)-> $38,775,000
Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD)-> $174,477,750
EV/Barrel Average AET Net Production HY 2024-> $26,057
EV/Barrel AET Net Production HY 2024 including Q3 Lifting -> $19,128
Decommissioning Liabilities (HY 2024 Results) -> $130,900,000
EV/Barrel Average HY 24 Production Including Decommissioning Liabilites -> $38,676
2P Reserves Post Revised Acquisitions-> 32,000,000
EV/2P-> $5.45 |
"Afentra management believes there is potential to deliver a step-change in production to in excess of 30,000 bopd gross"
And good news regarding the drop in oil prices recently
"On price protection, we will be looking to build out the oil hedge program we have successfully put in place for our February, June and August liftings. In respect of our projected Q4 2024 lifting we have placed a combination of puts (230,000 bbls at $70/bbl floor) and zero cost collars (170,000 bbls, $70/bbl floor / $90.40/bbl ceiling)" |
Had seen a broker note with decommissioned liabilities at 133 ..so 130 is a bit below. |
Paul McDade, Chief Executive Officer, Afentra plc commented:
"We are pleased with the progress made during the first half of 2024, which marks a pivotal period for Afentra as we transition into a producing company. The successful completion of our acquisitions in Angola has provided the financial foundation for the company, with our strong balance sheet reflecting not only the robust cash-generating capacity of these assets but also our commitment to disciplined and strategic value driven deal-making. We continue to build out our position in Angola with the entry into the Kwanza onshore basin which we consider to be a further organic value opportunity.
Our team's dedication and the strong relationships with our partners and ANPG have been instrumental in achieving these milestones, and we remain committed to driving further value for our shareholders. As we look ahead, we will continue to focus on optimising our current assets while exploring new opportunities that align with our strategy of responsible and sustainable growth in Africa." |
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