New Tennyson note out.
"We reiterate our BUY recommendation with a raised target price of 80p/shr (vs 75p)"
"We would add that our analysis excludes the potential for further acquisitions which are expected to be a key value driver going forward." |
 Let the trend be your friend - in the last week we've had the following developments:
* New Zealand to reverse ban on oil / gas exploration
* New York indefinitely postpones congestion fee
* US raises fuel economy standards less than proposed
* Green parties heavily lose vote share in European elections
Against this backdrop: The clowns running the UK's Socialist Labour Party announce to the world they intend to light the after burners on the UK's ultra high cost transition to 'renewables'!
'Global oil demand is trending above every IEA "scenario". So much that achieving NZE 2030 numbers feels science fiction'.....Javier Blas - Bloomberg 12 June
'5-year oil forecast for 2030: ~105.4
STEPS scenario for 2030: ~104.5
APS scenario for 2030: ~97.5
NZE scenario for 2030: ~83.7
I do note there are definition and methodological differences between the numbers for the 2030 forecast and 2030 scenarios. But even so, the gap is so large (particularly with the APS and NZE) that those differences are meaningless to the broader point.'
Opec reopens rift with IEA on peak demand - Argus / 13/06/24
'Opec today reopened a rift with the IEA about the future need for oil, calling the Paris-based agency's forecast for peak demand this decade a "continuation of its anti-oil narrative."
Opec secretary-general Haitham Al Ghais said the IEA's projection, made earlier this week, is a "dangerous narrative" that "will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale." He made his case in a commentary for consultancy Energy Aspects that Opec made publicly available.........
....Criticism of the IEA from the upstream industry has magnified since 2021, when the agency said that 2050 climate goals exclude the need for any new oil and gas fields. Saudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman described this as "la la land" analysis. This year the IEA has come under fire from Republicans in the US Congress who have said the agency is veering into climate advocacy. US industry body API chief executive Mike Sommers said earlier this year the IEA "has become, unfortunately, so politicized that it's just not a reliable source of data any more." ''
OPECSec Gen: Peak oil demand not on the horizon |
Looks like a bigger consolidation this time. :0) |
And there was a gap at 57.70 ish? Now closed? Onwards and upwards...gla. |
Nothing goes up in a straight line. MT is correct this is a buy and hold. Also, RSI is falling to more respectable levels allowing the add on trade. |
Net 6,800 bopd Production - @ $23/bbl Opex.
Net 52 mmbbls - 2P + 2C Reserves and Resources
$50 million @ $75/bbl Brent - Annual Asset Cash Generation
All for a net $9m.
Fundamentals good enough to turn any self respecting trader into a 'buy and hold' value Investor, where the real money is made! |
Nearly a 10% intraday swing on the bid, investing is a fickle business |
Looks like traders moving on and some taking profits, perhaps expected another acquisition, happy to wait and let the business grow and flourish |
ahhh that 'magnetic' round number is so strong ! |
Yes - the three came across as very impressive leadership team.
Paul's comments in today's presentation regarding M&A opportunities continues to strongly suggest to me that the next acquisition will most likely be a working interest in another large Angolan mid/late life asset. |
It was a pretty polished presentation. Was impressed with the finance lady. |
Net payment of $9m for all three Angolan working interest deals in a world class asset is an outstanding achievement, particularly when considering the reinvestment potential. |
Seems what they are doing is well though out, initially doing light workovers and gas lift with 2-3 months payback which is a crazy IRR and accounts for the production rise,then over a few years doubling production with infill and satellite drilling which costs a bit more but easily covered from cashflow, plenty of other assets to develop too, would be nice to hear firm plans to drill or contract of some rigs ... |
Had a tiny top up at 60.5p :-) |
Maximise Value from Core Assets
▪ Optimising existing base production
▪ Increase recovery through well works and infill drilling
▪ Further life extension through development of satellites
Build on achievements in Angola
▪ Leverage relationships and first mover position
▪ Onshore licenses under negotiation
▪ 15 Bn bbls of discovered resources provide significant opportunity to secure further material assets
African M&A beyond Angola
▪ Broad regional network and relationships
▪ Pursue further M&A opportunities in West Africa
▪ Target assets with cash flow, proven reserves and unrealised upside |
60p round number consolidation over ? Next stop 70p;0) |
It's popped |
Afentra plc is pleased to announce that it will host a live online investor presentation today on Tuesday 11 June 2024 10:30am BST via the Investor Meet Company platform.
During the presentation management will provide more details of the significant upside potential of Block 3/05 and 3/05A assets and the Company's plans to realise that potential.
The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and add to meet AFENTRA PLC via:
The investor presentation is now available on |
FOMOs moving in before next week. :0) |
Perhaps the share price consolidation we saw at 40p in play here and will lead to a push to 70p over the next month.
Either way a solid medium / long term buy or hold |
In the month prior to the Opec+ June meeting 'speculators' had driven the short position in oil up to a multi decade high, equal to that hit at the height of the pandemic when oil demand was nearly 15m barrels/day lower than today's record 103m bbls/d. |
Tennyson
"...We look forward to a fulsome update on the portfolio and growth prospects on 11 June at the planned investor presentation – the first opportunity to showcase the potential post completion." |
Africa
Africa’s importance in the global energy and natural resource landscape cannot be overlooked as it holds a significant proportion of the world’s critical mineral resources. Harnessing these resources for sustainable development requires concerted efforts to overcome numerous obstacles such as aged and inadequate infrastructure and a legacy of limited investment. For many African nations, reliant upon oil and gas revenues while also facing challenges such as energy poverty, achieving a Just Energy Transition means ensuring a responsible use of their natural resources to generate revenues to fund their socioeconomic development.
As observed by the IEA Africa Energy Outlook 2022: “nearly 600 million people, or 43% of the total population, have no access to electricity”, Solving this imbalance, or energy poverty, requires a fair and orderly Energy Transition. To address this challenge, it is crucial that Africa be allowed to continue to benefit from oil and gas as a source of much needed revenues for its immediate Energy Security, while developed richer countries should lead the way in diversifying their energy mix toward low carbon solutions.
Strategic partnerships between governments, international organisations, and the private sector are crucial for unlocking the continent’s vast energy potential and accelerating the transition towards a sustainable future in a fair and responsible manner. Afentra is positioned to support Africa through its own Energy Transition, by leveraging our deep technical expertise in operating fields in the most efficient way, reducing emissions to a minimum and maximising value for all stakeholders." |
Seemed rude not to add early doors. :0) |
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