Afc Energy Share Discussion Threads

[norbus] 08/9/2015 17:33

I once shorted ACTA at 62 and closed the next day as I felt uncomfortable being against my principles to short; Looking at the oain itm went through to get where they are I find it miraculous for Bond to be in a position to make his claim. The odds are the counterparties are seeking as much prominence as he is. delivery is another matter; free options are dirt cheap as they have no value. Lanstaed can now make their killing dumoing at these levels from a base of 10p

[dangersimpson2] 08/9/2015 15:26

And now the bid is 38.5p. It's just noise. Small movements up or down won't change my opinion.

If Lanstead don't sell any, there are no short term holders who jumped on the banwagon on the rise from 10p looking to protect their gains, and Bond delivers large-scale technical viability, commercial viability and signs all the projects that have non-binding intents then I may lose money. Alternatively if Lanstead or short termers sell or Bond doesn't deliver then you will lose money. That's what makes a market. But as today's price action shows it won't be due to a small tick up or down in the bid or offer.

[norbus] 08/9/2015 10:47

Dangersimpson

That is a balanced overview as far as concerns Lanstead and the Acrobatics; you also explain the substructure under Williams and Bond same puff pastry, different egg glaze; I would not like to be a holder right now

[ride the wave] 08/9/2015 10:47

Meanwhile the bid is now on 40p .

Better close your position quickly before all your profit disappears mate . All the cheap shares are now getting bought and we have our quarterly update due this month .

431,000 traded and rising

[dangersimpson2] 08/9/2015 10:39

The Lanstead funding that AFC have gives some strange incentives. Because the amount they get in funding depends on the shareprice then the management want to push it up to secure the funding. Given that the value of the swap goes through the income statement it also makes the company look better financially at least to the uninformed. This in my opinion this is why we've seen lot's of heads of agreement etc. but very little in the way of binding agreements.

The incentives that Lanstead have then is to keep the share price down while their swap agreement is in place so they don't have to pay out too much in funding. They have the shares that were placed with them so they can acheive this with some agressive selling. Although given the 'hot money' rise from 10p to 60p and the much weaker energy environment the drop may not be them at all.

Amur Minerals (AMC.L) gives an example of how this battle may play out. They produced multi-billion dollar estimates of EBITDA from their mine studies (but with unrealistic NPV assumptions imo) to get everyone excited. The news of the license award brought the shareprice from 10p to 45p. The extra funds from Lanstead due to the increased share price meant they avoiding needing additional short-term equity funding but it didn't stop the shareprice dropping back to the current value of 15p (and down to 13p intra-day.) Given AMC's recent statements about Lanstead holding less than 1% of their equity a good chunk of that drop they believed to be agressive Lanstead selling.

If Lanstead are following the same strategy as they did at AMC we could see AFC drop to the same sort of level. It's this reason that I'm short term bearish.

[ride the wave] 08/9/2015 10:15

The best things are worth waiting for ..you don't get rich overnight .

You were warning people not to buy AFC at 7-10p . Shows how much you know !!!

Lmfao

Ps AB doesn't make the price - the market does . It's natural for the share price to fall before it reaches a new higher high - it's human behaviour after all and that's why you see the same waves patterns in charts .

[norbus] 08/9/2015 09:26

Just Air leaking out from the bubble

Bond is a veritable genius to have blown it so full. I wish we could hire him at ITM where we actually have the superlative technology with world record efficiency.

Long time gone since 1st cell brought on stream; All maybe Hunky Dory, but why would Bond let so much air out if there was no cause for concern?

Those who took cost off the table are smart; others men of faith, will have to wait for a dividend and a takeover or a second coming

[ride the wave] 08/9/2015 09:00

Looks like c wave is over !!

Shorts could be toast lol

[ride the wave] 08/9/2015 08:40

All shorts will need to buy back their positions which will move the share price back up , then they will go long again , which will push the share price even higher . A lot of people must be watching and waiting on the side lines . It will be like a snowball effect . I'm happy playing the long game myself .

Bid just ticked up - cmon the BULLS

[beeezzz] 07/9/2015 22:54

I say it as I see it, if the company moves the goal posts, then I have to take a decision on how that will affect my investment. Nothing stands still especially in tech companies.

[shaunstar] 07/9/2015 22:11

Yikes, i think thats the first time in my life ive bad my freedom of speech taken away.
No skin of my nose, here to be helpful amongst other things, take it or leave it.
Gla,
Shaun

[beeezzz] 07/9/2015 21:53

OK who is the 24 carat plonker moderating a discussion BB, what is the point of a discussion board if you can't put views forward for discussion sensibly which are now block. What a load of (*&*^)

[ride the wave] 07/9/2015 20:15

Strong hold - everything else is just noise .

Been there - seen it - got the t shirt !!!

As you were .....

[tradeyodha] 07/9/2015 19:23

+1 shaunstar

@TradeYodha

[ride the wave] 07/9/2015 16:23

Thanks , but NO thanks !

Little fluctuations do not bovver me on the slightest . I'm here for years and years and hopefully will make a lot more than the traders .

You bears are funny though , I'll give ya that .


🏄🏽

[dangersimpson2] 07/9/2015 14:06

This has actually held up pretty well considering how rapidly it rose earlier this year, that it is an energy stock, and that it is operationally loss-making.

Renewable enery companies are now being hit pretty hard:

hxxp://fortune.com/2015/09/05/oil-prices-renewable-energy-yieldcos/

Although not a 'yieldco' AFC will be affected by the same market forces of lower electricity pricing and investor appetite for renewable energy projects.

So £120m+ is a big market cap for a company that has shown small scale technical viablility but not large scale technical viability or commercial viability particularly in the current low energy price environment.

[tradeyodha] 07/9/2015 13:08

First target was 41. I topped up short 3 times very time it went upwards. Second targets around 35 p and onwards depending on market conditions

[tradeyodha] 07/9/2015 13:04

Just filled my first target as expected. See my last chart and targets

[ride the wave] 07/9/2015 12:44

Looking weak but I'm still holding as my eyes are on the prize . I'm a long term investor who's looking forwards to 2020 + beyond . Nothing goes up in a straight line so this was to be expected really . This downwave won't last forever and news blows charts out of the window .

40p support has broke and that's why we have had a big fall (day traders getting out) . This could goto 25p but I'm riding this one out until takeover or dividends .

If u can't stand the heat - get out of the kitchen 😝

GLA

[shaunstar] 07/9/2015 12:35

Chart looks like its about to dive. 35p from here looks like a key level, then 27/28p id guess. But i dont really know (or believe in TA other than fact that others do so has some influence).

Thoughts on the chart anyone?

[tradeyodha] 07/9/2015 11:59

I am still here. It is about to hit my first target.