Afc Energy Share Discussion Threads

[haggismchaggis] 20/1/2022 09:32

Tonsil,

Exactly my point that GM 'need' to diversify.

[haggismchaggis] 20/1/2022 09:31

Dolores,

Rubbish!!

The whole market has fallen and it's not specific to AFC. When the market decides tech stocks are cheap, the market will buy stocks like AFC back up again, without AFC releasing any news.

Of course if AFC released news it would have the same effect, but it's not a prerequisite for a rise.

[tonsil] 20/1/2022 08:55

Dare I point out that GM sold a total of 1, that is ONE electric humvee in 2021. They also sold 26 Chevy Bolts. Hardly a threat to anyone but themselves.

[dolores123] 20/1/2022 08:38

Until AFC can issue some substantial orders this will continue to be a falling knife.

[haggismchaggis] 19/1/2022 23:01

bmel,

GM can't compete with AFC on a combination of CAPEX, OPEX, performance and ease of fuel supply, as AFC has the cheap technology. GM are still using precious metal catalysts, AFC are not, because Alkaline Fuel Cells work fine without precious metals.

GM can certainly ramp up production to lower costs, but as proven by BE, BLDP, FCEL and PLUG, they need to be producing way more than they do right now just to reach break even.

GM can only achieve what AFC can achieve by buying out AFC, which is fine by me, although AFC would be a better fit for PLUG Power due to them focussing on different markets. If they had a bidding war that would suit me fine, as I can easily imagine how high they could bid AFC up to before one of them wins.

It was always the case that once other Fuel Cell companies saw what AFC was targeting, that they would try it too. I think GM had to diversify with their FC offering, as they have such low production the units must cost a bomb. With more end uses, they hope they can get some economy of scale, but that all depends on the price, and the units they are using are built for vehicles, so are notoriously the most expensive type of Fuel Cell, just look at the cost of any HEV and much of the cost is in the Fuel Cell.

[bmel] 19/1/2022 22:43

Haggis

No argument about our tech. My concern is that a few years ago GM and Ford were ‘doomed’ as old tech with no ability to follow Tesla.

Now we have an EV Humvee etc etc. GM and Ford are now throwing billions at green transport and already producing vey significant ranges of EV alternative vehicles that the US market is soaking up like sponge. Ford lightning truck is already over sold and they cannot build them fast enough……the Tesla equivelent is still not being produced despite being exhibited some time ago.

Now that ‘old detroit’ is becoming ‘new detroit’ very very fast I think we underestimate their ability to transition and innovate at our peril. Same applies to ‘old oil’ which is now moving fast and with colossal financial and engineering muscle.

Yes the market is near boundless. But…..we do need to get some traction that gives us competitive credibility.

My point on GM is that the change we want is now happening, and it is happening faster than we might have imagined. That creates challenges that AFC needs to respond to.

[haggismchaggis] 19/1/2022 22:29

bmel,

Good points about the big picture. Small people with small minds and willing to take small profits will never get it LOL!


On the GM news, the question is, do you think GM can compete with:
A low cost AFC high density Fuel Cell
A modular AFC AEM Fuel Cell
An AFC Fuel Cell that uses no precious metals in the catalyst, yet performance is as good as the best PEM? (see research done by Dr John Varcoe on behalf of AFC, this is fact)
A Fuel Cell that can be run off dirty Hydrogen (not 99.999% pure, as other Fuel Cells require)
A Fuel Cell that can run off cracked dirty (97.5% purity), cheap, easily available Ammonia
A Fuel Cell that can run off cracked dirty Methanol

AFC don't need to get moving as far as GM are concerned. The market for these products is MASSIVE, absolutely MASSIVE, billions per year in sales when you add the markets together.

There is plenty of room for all of the Fuel Cell manufacturers, each will get a share of the pie, and each share could make hundreds of millions for each company every year for decades, before the market is anywhere near saturated on a global scale.

Just look at PLUG targeting $3bn per year, and it would still only be scratching the surface.

There's that big picture again :)

[haggismchaggis] 19/1/2022 22:22

Following the USA market close we have:

AFC -5.9%
CWR -5.3%
ITM -5.0%
PPS -2.9%

BE. +1.4%
BLDP -2.1%
FCEL -5.0%
PLUG -8.4% (business update conference call today, not what the market wanted to hear by the looks of it, despite projecting $900m turnover)

PLUG update:

"The Company is walking the street to $900M-925M in 2022 revenue, compared to SA consensus at $900M."

"Management is sticking to the 2025 guidance released last year and maintains that the "target business model" will have 30% gross margins in 2025, and a 17% operating margin, on $3B in sales."

"Using Management's forecast, the Company should generate $510M in operating income; assuming net debt remains close to zero (no interest cost) and a 21% corporate tax rate, earnings should shake out ~$403M or ~$0.70 per share (assuming no further dilution)."

"$0.70 per share compares favorably to SA consensus of $0.53 per share by 2025; however, leaves the company trading at > 30x 2025 earnings -- not a problem says buy-rated KeyBanc."

[bmel] 19/1/2022 21:03

Back in the real world ……. Some interesting and possibly concerning news.

General Motors have just announced they intend to expand their fuel cell business to non vehicle applications including retail fuel stations and military applications with palletised kit.

Best our people get a move on.

[yellowf123] 19/1/2022 20:59

Haggis i will match your 3 facts.

Wall Street cares nothing about climate change and Global Warming.

This company has a long history of failed delivery on projects.

By the time inflation is back down to sub 2% it will be 2024-26.
By which time IF this company is still in business, there will be several Billion shares in circulation from the many rounds of fund raising. Required to pay the workforce that are doing nothing but drinking cups of tea in that new manufacturing facility..

One final prediction AB will not survive the next 12 months as CEO..

[r0hini] 19/1/2022 20:43

BS. Its cos these have sold FA. simple as

[bmel] 19/1/2022 19:40

Haggis you are right. No ‘suddenly discovered’ fault in these companies. Caught in a very stormy exit from higher risk tech companies in the US market response to :

higher inflation…R30;
driving higher interest rates ………;
driving up attractiveness of bonds and
driving down attractiveness of longer term growth companies
whose earnings and profits are in the (relatively) far future
and therefore less valuable because of ………;. Higher inflation

This trend has spilled across Nasdaq and S&P driving down pretty much anything sort of tech including (despite a widely recognised global shortage) chips like NVIDIA and AMD. All the larger US hydrogen companies have been clobbered too.

UK is running with the same tide across most of the market and UK hydrogen is mirroring the US experience as are McPhy and NEL in Europe.

Someone will add to this “a few orders will reverse the trajectory”.
That will help but the same voices tell us that competitors are winning loads……. However their prices are also down. Go figure.

Perhaps something more powerful than a few orders is driving this. Something like a material change in inflation and interest rates on a global scale…..

Yep, that could do it. So for the circa two years that higher inflation is forecast things will be a little different but the markets will have adapted to the changed environment much faster than that. The current correction is seeing to that………and it is close to concluding already.

[r0hini] 19/1/2022 19:34

Farce this share is. Delivered FA but hype

[haggismchaggis] 19/1/2022 19:10

It's a fact!

Well 3 facts actually!

Drop is still no fault of AFC. Still no bad news for AFC. Still no change to the excellent guidance given in the trading update of December 2021.

Scores on the doors:

AFC -5.9%
CWR -5.3%
ITM -5.0%
PPS -2.9%

BE. +0.9%
BLDP -0.6%
FCEL -4.5%
PLUG -5.5%

[juju44] 19/1/2022 13:58

Back to 10p ?

[hugotanha] 19/1/2022 13:27

Perhaps 24p

[jakecat1] 19/1/2022 12:45

Mouth wateringly large multimillion buy offer on the cards in the 35p region?Quick rise to previous levels after?Or just market sentiment.Who knows...

[haggismchaggis] 19/1/2022 12:31

PHEV's "a climate target con and it’s a consumer con"

[haggismchaggis] 19/1/2022 12:23

Something else to get people thinking about swapping to an EV, and more doing it.

‘We have too often seen measures to tackle air pollution and the climate emergency delayed around the world because it’s viewed as being too hard or politically inconvenient, but I’m not willing to put off action we have the ability to implement here in London,’ Sadiq Khan has said. And that starts by taxing London drivers and encouraging them to take public transport, walk, cycle or drive electric cars instead.

[hugotanha] 19/1/2022 12:10

Hahahahahahaha, you are expecting hahaha

[haggismchaggis] 19/1/2022 12:03

"Shock! Your kids want you to drive an electric car.
Further shock: you want them to learn in one too."
.