Aew Uk Reit Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 17/4/2020 16:34

Hope so - but if most of the other REITs can comment, they surely should.

[waikenchan] 17/4/2020 16:32

Maybe it's priced in the share price...

[spectoacc] 17/4/2020 15:34

Maybe no news is good news :) But yes - some retail, some retail warehouse - they've surely got something to say about the quarter end rent collection.

Southend Odeon cinema too, had forgotten that one - paid £5.7m for it!

Sheffield Fargate, 34k sq ft of retail space, another dodgy one (£5.3m paid).

[waikenchan] 17/4/2020 15:28

I can't imagine things are going swimmingly given what's has happended in the other reits.

[hugepants] 17/4/2020 14:00

This lot seem determined not to update their shareholders.
Does not instill much confidence.

[2wild] 08/4/2020 12:40

No, just as they don't have to distribute gains.

[nickrl] 08/4/2020 12:08

So when they write down assets is that counted against rental income?

[waikenchan] 08/4/2020 10:57

90% of what net income will be the collected is the big question.

[jimbox1] 08/4/2020 10:33

REITs have to distribute 90% of their property income profits for each accounting period to maintain their tax-exempt status.

[waikenchan] 08/4/2020 10:13

I would have expected the management to give some guidance regarding the dividend, or cash position / rents collects. I dont know if it is work that we haven't....

An I yeresting article re property mutual funds

[nickrl] 05/4/2020 09:27

We wont know how effective social distancing is having for several weeks yet and govt has already indicated it would be post Easter before there is any change (extension in all probability) of lockdown. That said there is certainly a groundswell of opinion breaking through that says getting the balance right between economic destruction and life saving needs to be right.

AEWU have broad tenant base but a random check on few tenants shows how easily you can be exposed in the non retail sectors eg a steelwork supplier to construction industry ( everyone's cancelling there construction projects), motorsport engineering (discretionary spending), logistic suppliers to retailers (outside of food dead). In be Q2 NAV updates before we have visibility i suggest.

[rcturner2] 05/4/2020 07:06

My brother-in-law works in commercial property. Most of his clients are high net worth individuals and they are licking their lips at the current situation as they are out there looking for bargains. Even though plenty of people will get taken out by this crisis (possibly my business) there will be some who make a mint.

[spectoacc] 04/4/2020 16:36

Just to add - EZJ have mothballed their entire fleet for two months, & the EU banking lot have told the banks no divis or buybacks before October. Both those dates to get significantly extended IMO.

But apologies, I'm wandering off AEWU to the latest favourite dinner party topic - assuming, that is, there were still any dinner parties.

AEWU at least have a little ready cash, and have never been excessively geared. Fingers crossed.

[spectoacc] 04/4/2020 15:51

@HP - "..Opening the shops again in a few weeks.." - we'll have barely peaked by then. Unless CNBC meant America, which is frankly hilarious. America is in an almighty sh*tstorm, a humanitarian disaster ahead.

My guess (for UK) is a more strict lock-down coming soon, then a loosening in a month to 6 weeks, then a re-introduction about 6-8 weeks after that. Is a chance it'll cool over summer, so the 2nd lock-down could be brief/minor, and the one after that more serious. Cancelling Xmas would be....interesting for retail. But no sane person thinks there'll be a vaccine by then, and there's a worldwide reservoir of Covid-19 (let alone an obvious UK reservoir, as contracted by NHS staff).

Plenty will have their death contributed to by the lock-down, absolutely. But worth looking at the UK daily figs that are doubling ever 4 days. And the trajectory of Spain & Italy, well ahead of us but going to have peaked at fewer deaths & a long tail.

@2wild - agree, love SHED, but - can they not tell us whether they've made the acquistions they raised the cash for? Even just renegotiating the price wouldn't impress me. A cashed-up property IT in a year or so's time could absolutely clean up.

[hugepants] 04/4/2020 15:27

As discussed on CNBC the shutdown wont be prolonged for a very good reason ie. more people will ultimately die due to the collapsing economy (eg significantly less cash for the NHS) and health risks with being cooped up inside all day, than from the coronavirus itself. Id expect shops to start opening tentatively again in a few weeks. They'll no doubt limit the number of customers and everyone will be advised to be careful etc but it will be the start.

[2wild] 04/4/2020 15:23

SHED is by far in the best financial position having raised £136M in February and March. Well over half the market cap in cash and most of their tenants are booming.

[nickrl] 04/4/2020 15:00

Specto with FCA giving companies longer to publish accounts and advising them not to rush out with preliminary statements is there risk here we go into a information vacuum as it suits companies to keep a low profile? What criteria would require them to update the market? Im guessing they can keep stum with information on deals done with tenants until formal reporting but amendments to loans or covenants would have to be reported?

Also i see FCA have amended short selling regs down to 0.1% v 0.2% holding not big in itself but flush out a few more of the shorters.

[spectoacc] 04/4/2020 14:26

SHB always worth watching I agree.

Aye I'm not too fussed on LTV atm, I think it'll come into play later in the crisis tho, perhaps a year's time. Biggest concern is having the cashflow to service the debt. Interesting to see concern about dividends getting cut or not, when major worry should be getting enough money in not to actively default.

[essentialinvestor] 04/4/2020 12:37

Many of the big REITS launched value destructive rights issues during 2009,
causing huge equity dilution to existing holders. That has to be kept in mind.

Spec is probably on the right track that lenders may be more flexible on covenants
this time.

[essentialinvestor] 04/4/2020 12:33

Great Portland (don't hold atm) have positioned for a downturn.
Their LTV is the lowest I'm aware of in the sector.
A well timed recent director buy in GPOR, right at the March low.

I hold a very small amount of SREI, however that could fall in to the 20's,
mentioned a possible low between 22-28 pence previously - just guesswork.

SHB well worth watching imv.

[spectoacc] 04/4/2020 12:19

Valuers will do nowt IMO, they have this RICS get-out clause.

What will be very interesting is if/when the gated Unit Trusts try to sell anything (/everything).

@LG - "...will be sending shivers through the Far East" - almost as bad as my "Food shortages baked in" ;)

Well if you can't laugh...

[nickrl] 04/4/2020 10:41

This qtr is not going to be representative of the sheer scale of problems heading towards landlords and they will need to throw out the current rule book to survive.

Actions by New Look & Next are just a minuscule of businesses taking that decision and i have to say it is aided and abetted by the furlough scheme which i believe will come back to haunt the government and the country if not capped in some way quickly. So retailers actions now impact suppliers and logistics tomorrow thus Industrial property comes under risk Then you need less admin staff so offices follow behind and ultimately anything reliant on disposable income is dust.

So I reckon at next qtr, unless govt extends the moratorium on instigating rent recoveries, you will see all propcos rental income deteriorating significantly over this qtr. This then throws the problem onto the banks so there position over the coming weeks and months needs to be watched carefully to see how they behave. With the loan covenant metrics in part dependent on what the valuers say will be critical in at least provoking this decision but valuers have nothing to go on so not sure they can do no more than use the existing trend line they were working to and stamping it Material Uncertainty.

[lord gnome] 04/4/2020 10:30

eeza - that statement from New Look will be sending shivers through the Far East. I predict lots of people out there will be wearing New Look for the summer season.

One aspect of all this, so far overlooked, is that there will be some rich pickings for any prop co with funds to buy at this time.

[spectoacc] 04/4/2020 09:24

Next closing their online was a bit of a wake-up too - even the "winners" finding that they can't expect their staff to still do the order picking. Not sure Amazon's "100,000 extra staff" is viable either.

(Next have a billion quid of liquidity, have my eye on them when this all ends).

To be fair, we've all got clothes already atm. Food will be the issue later.

[eeza] 04/4/2020 08:54

This won't help either.

"New Look says it is suspending payments to suppliers for existing stock "indefinitely", telling them in a letter that the stock can be collected by its owners.

The retailer is also cancelling orders for its Spring and Summer clothing lines and won't pay costs towards them................"