Aew Uk Reit Share Discussion Threads

[chucko1] 14/3/2020 12:39

I would agree that the market has not yet found its low point. But that is different from saying we have not found the point of maximum pessimism (or even irrationality) - perhaps we have. The low point of the market will likely be a function of panic about liquidity, rather than panic about company earnings and even survival. Hence the slaughter of gold yesterday, the US Treasury market and US Munis a day or so before.

Longer term, I wonder what the knock-on effects will be of many individuals who have a reduction in earnings, possibly permanent. They will have liability profiles that they will struggle to amend - and that in turn will have an effect. Perhaps they will have to break rental leases or even default on mortgages (though likely to be able to renegotiate by central bank or government intervention).

I do not see a quick bounce back to “normal”. In that respect, lower aggregate rents paid to REITs is not good, but it is marginal rather than “off a cliff” and one of the least bad places to be. The current higher yields are a decent incentive to stick with this stuff, although selling a few and buying smashed blue chips has a place.

[nickrl] 14/3/2020 11:18

Specto being newish to these boards i was expecting a lot more commentary given current events so was surprised by reduction in alerts on my dozen or so boards. What does this tell us about the psychology of contributors and there investing intentions i wonder?

Also im with you on the potential here for something calamitous to happen if the BoE and government dont get 100% behind backstopping ALL companies with loans. Take IAG (granted one of the worst directly impacted) they are bleeding massively and if there not going to be supported they will take draconian action (as they've already indicated in a leaked memo to staff) to protect there business which will cascade down there supply chain very rapidly. FTSE350 CEOs and boards are largely driven by the bottom line and bonuses not morality.

[spectoacc] 14/3/2020 08:01

Best of luck, may get a nice bounce to sell into on Monday, FTSE called +300.

ADVFN like a ghost town, always happens when things tank - yet it's the most fascinating and interesting time in the market!

So whilst FTSE is called +300 to 5,650, I'd just like to predict the bottom is going to be 4-something, in many months time. Covid-19 in USA is sadly not going to be pretty, we're still some way from a lock down/shortages, and an awful lot of co's are going to go to the wall..

[spectoacc] 12/3/2020 14:52

Picking up a few trackers but still not tempted by stocks - USA is the next Italy IMO, they've got an epidemic they're as yet largely unaware of.

Still reckon we'll avoid Italy's fate.

Made the point already but - Trump's travel ban should be on Americans, not Europeans.

And to stay on topic - AEWU 14% in retail from memory, not sure I'd want to be there. A lot of Budget relief for tiny co's to continue affording their rent, less so (bar tax deferrals) for larger ones.

[chucko1] 11/3/2020 22:30

I actually got a small bunch at 86.8. I said I would wait for 84, but there seemed so much panic I thought it was worth another trade. Trump speaks at 9.00pm EDT tonight, so it’s anyone’s guess where this all opens tomorrow. Up a thousand, down a thousand - just random noise nowadays. Equivalent to a 5 point move on AEWU - you’re only a few trades away from making or losing a few points on this!

[2wild] 11/3/2020 17:04

Added at 87.2p. At 9.17% yild, 10% discount to net asset value, borrowin costs now down to 1.7%, low LTV, £7 million in cash and high dividend cover, whats not to like

[chucko1] 11/3/2020 15:43

Bargain time again (yet again). Can buy at 88.28, so I did. Twice. I buy again at 84ish.

And I think it gets there.

[skyship] 11/3/2020 07:21

Everytime I inserted AIF into the EPIC box, up came AAIF. Perhaps that has been happening to Specto too...

[rcturner2] 11/3/2020 07:16

specto, I don't know where you are getting your information from.

AIF charges 0.70% per annum

Your list of holdings is also way off.

Please refer to their most recent factsheet:

hxxps://www.premierfunds.co.uk/media/5124/acorn-income-fund-monthly-factsheet.pdf

[spectoacc] 10/3/2020 14:47

300 offer? ;)

Usual problem with fund-of-funds is double charges. And I'd not fancy RGL or WHR yet. SHED I'm committed to, but even that may be starting to look pricey. AEWU I'll have at the right price, one of its appeals has always been the relatively low gearing (unlike, for eg, RGL).

Edit - sorry for OT, but AIF ongoing charge 1.59%, holdings according to HL:

Telecom Plus, Polar Capital, Primary Health, Ocean Wilsons, James Halstead, Goodwin, Secure Trust Bank, FDM Group, Four, LMP. All from 2.7% to 1.95% of total NAV, so a very long tail. Have to say I don't see any particular insight in that lot. Last NAV (from Friday) 391p at best, and must be a chunk lower after yesterday.

[rcturner2] 10/3/2020 13:53

Spec, it went to 300p intraday which is a 5 year low. At that point the NAV was over 400p.

They hold REITS such as RGL etc, so you are getting a discount from your discount!

I haven't bought anything yet, still watching and waiting.

[spectoacc] 10/3/2020 13:03

By pence? Anyone can look at the chart, and make their own judgement. 330p in Dec/Jan 2018/19. Same again in August, again in mid-Oct of the past year. Am assuming all done on mid, so +24p today on a 27p spread, ie above the level of just 5 months ago.

Not saying it's not a raging buy - never looked at it - but it's a perfect example (there's many) of seeing bargains due only to the comparisons, when IMO the world has changed over those 5 months.

[rcturner2] 10/3/2020 10:53

That's simply not true. It has already dipped into multi year low territory.

[spectoacc] 10/3/2020 10:51

@RCT2 - whereas I look at AIF and see it back only at level of a few months ago, ie pre-Covid. Has been quite a few like that - the falls look massive because they've been so sudden, but they're only giving back say 4-6 months of gains.

[rcturner2] 10/3/2020 10:49

I generally only buy ITs on wide discounts and tend to sell them when the discount narrows too much or the yield drops.

I sold several very long standing ITs recently APAX and PEY and both have fallen back significantly. I was at 40% cash before the current carnage.

I am looking across the board to get back in over time, but again only when the discount is very large at least 10% and preferably a lot more.

As I said above AIF (which I sold in December) has a very good set of holdings and is already at a discount above 20%.

[skyship] 10/3/2020 10:39

"As I went 100% cash a few weeks ago..."

Tournesol - well done you. I went to 50%; but now at 33%. Always prefer to keep some skin in the game and benefit from either bounces or recovery.

Well remember 2008/9. Lost 31% of my SIPP in 2008; then made 85% in 2009.

Are you not tempted to buy back in for a %age, or are you fearful of further dramatic falls as other countries go into lock-down?

[spectoacc] 10/3/2020 10:33

@tournesoi - indeed. ITs are the thing to buy when the market has tanked and when sentiment has soured/discounts widened. They're not the thing to buy and hold when discounts small/on premiums (LTI's 80% premium for eg).

The gearing factor alone should make them fall more than the market - and rise by more than it on the way back up.

A similar gearing argument (to stay vaguely on topic!) for the likes of AEWU.

[tournesol] 10/3/2020 10:29

RCT

I had about 1/4 of my funds in IT's (including REITs) until recently. The rest was divided between individual equities (1/4) and a basket of bonds and prefs (1/4) with the balance in cash.

A I went 100% cash a few weeks ago since when I have been tracking my previous holdings to see if my decision to exit was a good one.

The ITs in which I used to have holdings have done just as badly as the individual equities and in many cases significantly worse - eg the ITs focussed on small companies.

Had my ex-portfolio been 100% IT its resilience against the recent volatility wouold have been significantly lower.

[rcturner2] 10/3/2020 08:07

I mean ITs in general.

AIF (for example) which has a very wide set of holdings including other REITs is already on a 25% discount.

[skyship] 10/3/2020 07:44

RCT - sorry, not fully understanding your post.

By ITs do you mean REITs. If you are referring to general ITs then you would have to be very selective to achieve "massive discounts". The majority of ITs trade in a range of 10% discount to a 5% premium.

To my mind the problem with delegating portfolio management to a basket of ITs is that one tends toward a BUY & HOLD mentality, whereas managing your own affairs gives you the opportunity to massively increase cash levels in times of doubt.

[rcturner2] 10/3/2020 07:16

This is where investment trusts come in. I have a long list of those I bought in 2010/2011 which not only allow you to buy cheap shares but also at a massive discount.

The discounts are one of the best indicators of market mood.

If you look at HFEL for example, this is still trading close to NAV which is mental considering the "FE" stands for Far East.

[spectoacc] 09/3/2020 19:02

@tournesoi - I guess the point is twofold. 1. This wasn't a crash, tho I accept eg SDR's uncrossing price this morning, or PMO's 10p opening UT, suggests some panic. 2. FTSE is 6k for a reason - oil has tanked, economic activity out of China and now Italy will have cratered. So the market is perfectly rational to have dived.

But anyone who knows the market knows "rational" isn't the time to buy. "Schizo" is the time to buy, when it's pricing in a worst-case that may well not come to pass.

Or: buy cheap, don't buy fair value.

To say the market isn't yet pricing in the worst-case is an understatement. 12 months of rolling lock-downs, Covid-19 spreading across America, mass bankruptcies, deaths, over-loaded healthcare, an inability in the West to lock down the way China has - choose your FTSE figure for pricing in that possibility.

(Yes - "pricing" is % chance, but that's the FV price. The market is bi-polar).

I recognise I've fallen into "Do you want to be right or do you want to be rich".

[tournesol] 09/3/2020 18:03

Specto

Perhaps we'll avoid a stock market crash, perhaps we won't. But to be very clear - this isn't it.

If I interpret you correctly, you're saying that things will likely get worse before they get better.

Sadly I agree with you. I don't think is a flash crash. I think it is a descending staircase in which today is just one step downwards. I am afraid there are more to come before the direction of travel is reversed.

[spectoacc] 09/3/2020 15:53

You'd think a few more forced sales from the property unit trusts must be not far away!