Aeorema Communications Share Discussion Threads

[rndm355] 10/3/2016 08:26

Ok, someone hit it or the market makers woke up.

[rndm355] 10/3/2016 08:15

Someone has left a 33p bid sticking out this morning. Don't any holders want to hit it? It's ex div.

[clocktower] 08/3/2016 17:21

I do not assume mm. :-)

Re; short term trading - by that I am not sure what you mean by short term but turning over stock 2/4 times a year can and does work - mistakes occur of course but as long as you follow the laws of small numbers and do not suffer from not controlling the endowment effect that most suffer from and shield yourself from pain of serious losses by broad framing the stocks you hold.

I have in the past learnt from my own mistakes and having suffered serious losses(they were serious at the time for me but would be less so now) due to having and suffering from the endowment disease in the past and failing to broaden the frame and portfolio. Do not however over trade either.

Last year up 31% this year down 11% so far but that was due to a very poor January, however early days - my year Jan - Dec.

[michaelmouse] 08/3/2016 16:54

"mm - ramas correctly suggested that some traders(though small stock quantities) have managed to make 20/30% as some purchases were being made when it "TANKED" to 26/28p and have since been sold. I guess they will do the same again after the dividend expected drop."

You assume too much, and he's wrong. Firstly you assume that the buyers and sellers were the same people. This is unlikely. I'd guess the buyers were long term investors that are happy to sit and wait and pick up the steady stream of dividends. Secondly, there haven't been many sellers, but I'd guess the small sales were mostly weak holders that sold on recent strength.

There was nothing to tempt short term traders to buy at around 28p since they wouldn't have anticipated any short term catalysts to drive the share price up by 20%. I have never been able to see how short term trading can be profitable for the majority of PIs in the long run, and the statistics highlight this.

[clocktower] 08/3/2016 15:12

Very good points Mark1000 but there maybe nothing more to it other than being in it together 50/50 more or less that is. For example my wife has gained more than 50% of my assets since we married and benefits from most of my income, and as maybe the case here it is done because I value her and my family more than I value money, and they may value each other in the same way.

mm - ramas correctly suggested that some traders(though small stock quantities) have managed to make 20/30% as some purchases were being made when it "TANKED" to 26/28p and have since been sold. I guess they will do the same again after the dividend expected drop.

[mark1000] 08/3/2016 14:54

If this was a more active bb we could and should have discussed the big share transfer RNS on the 19th Feb. To hand over to your partner half the shares you hold made me actually think that we were potentially looking at the sale of the business. Was it simply good tax planning for the special dividend payment pre-tax year-end or is there a bigger CGT saving on a big disposal in the background.
With their new found zeal for tax planning can we expect them to sell shares pre 06/04/16 to cover their now dual annual CGT allowances assuming they are not using them elsewhere.

[old thumper] 08/3/2016 12:59

Mark, XD Good point, I'd forgotten. I'd be wrong anyway but if I was right CT would never hear the end of it :-)

[michaelmouse] 08/3/2016 12:30

CT - "mm - who said traders would have guessed that the 3p was coming?" post 3715 by implication. The trading fallacy is repeated again in post 3718 - "Traders have been able to leverage 20-30% gains". No they haven't unless their timing was absolutely perfect. Even holders didn't see the 3p special dividend coming, so it's unlikely that AEO has many traders daft enough to try and make a quick buck.

CT - Talking of price targets, did you notice that my price target for LWRF came within a whisker of reality. I predicted a drop to 10p, and it fell to 11p. Not bad eh? Illustrates the nonsense of trading micro-caps since I'd simply plucked the figure from thin air. What are you doing with LWRF at the moment? You posted that you cashed in your losses, but you're still hanging around that BB I notice. Are you in or out of LWRF or aren't you quite sure yourself? ;). I see the share price has regained some of it's equilibrium (LWRF that is) but they are clearly leaving results to the last minute. It shouldn't take any company nearly six months to produce their results, particularly a tiny company like LWRF. In general, late results are a very bad sign and unless their trading statement for their new financial year is any good and/or they release some blockbuster news then the share price will tank again.

Apologies for off topic.

[mark1000] 08/3/2016 10:28

OT - a tad optimistic me thinks particularly as this goes XD on Thursday.

[old thumper] 08/3/2016 09:21

38.5p assuming we break 35p mid week.

However if the seller dries up of stock 50p+

[ramas] 08/3/2016 08:50

Frustratingly for us long termers AEO has a very predictable price action post dividend announcements - check the graphs. We have seen a 6p increase post special divi notice .... Let's see where we end up this time ex divi plus a month. Traders have been able to leverage 20-30% gains .... Albeit on small ish volumes

[clocktower] 08/3/2016 08:30

mm - who said traders would have guessed that the 3p was coming? I must have missed any post that suggested that.

Right a challenge - well you are really asking me to make an informed guess I assume - so my wild guess is 30/32 at the end of the week and drifting from then on towards 20p over the next few months, bar some other unexpected RNS that might have a positive or detrimental effect. Of course take it with the same pinch of salt as usual. :-)

[michaelmouse] 07/3/2016 17:56

So traders would have guessed that the special dividend announcement was coming then? What nonsense.

Here's a challenge to you and CT. What will the share price be by the end of the week? I've no idea.

[ramas] 07/3/2016 16:22

Traders consistently make a double or triple dividend with AEO .... Looks this time like 20% is good enough ...

[clocktower] 07/3/2016 16:07

LOL - OT try 7500 again.

[old thumper] 07/3/2016 16:06

CT, The reason for the rise is that AEO has been overlooked for far too long.

And the fact the company is happy to pay money out show's it's has money coming in as I'm sure it wishes to keep a circa £1.5m cash balance.

The special dividend came as a surprise and other developments can arrive in the same way.

Does Mr 5000 share know's that he can sell at other quantities, try 5555 for a change :-)

[ramas] 07/3/2016 15:54

History suggests it will fall the same amount after ex divi .... This time I'm not sure ....

[clocktower] 07/3/2016 15:27

With the share price now at 34/36 this is 6p above the price before the last RNS - what has changed that values this at 3p more than it was taken the dividend into account?

Will we see the share price settle back or will the prospects of future dividends continue to improve the sp?

How many are thinking about selling before the cut off date hoping to buy back in at lower levels?

[clocktower] 07/3/2016 07:49

OT, I use crystal balls, maybe your tea leaves are better than my balls but I would rather trust my hard crystal balls than your soggy tea leaves when it comes to revisiting them in 5 years. :-)

[ramas] 06/3/2016 14:34

I think 6p divi is a little high but reasonable to expect 100% of earnings to be paid out - AEO has yet to achieve a 6p eps year and I wouldn't want the cash to run too low for obvious reasons.

[old thumper] 06/3/2016 12:49

CT,

"What will their return be over 5 years?"

I've checked my tea leaves,

3 times return, £2 share price + divi's = £2.40

[clocktower] 06/3/2016 09:58

Fine MM, the only issue I have is in "assuming anything" and more so that they will continue to pay out around 6p pa.

"It's reasonable to assume they will continue to pay out around 6p per annum in dividends."

We do agree though that it has been a great investment for anyone buying below the recent lows (26/28p) but what of any poor soul that paid 80p plus the other year?

What will their return be over 5 years?

[old thumper] 05/3/2016 14:16

Similar here.

hxxp://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2016/03/04/3-reasons-why-dividends-are-a-fools-best-friend/?source=uc1401cs0010001

And I like this bit "Dividends indicate that a company is financially sound"

[michaelmouse] 05/3/2016 13:26

Excellent article in the FT again today by John Lee where he uses the quote "patience is the companion of wisdom".

[michaelmouse] 05/3/2016 13:07

"Is this just going to tick tock along?"

Is a question which misses the point of an investment in AEO altogether.

Let's assume the company ticks along.

Let's assume the share price remains at 35p for the duration.

It's reasonable to assume they will continue to pay out around 6p per annum in dividends.

Dividend yield is 17.1% per annum.

Reinvest the dividend each year in AEO shares.

Compounding more than doubles your investment in 5 years.

In ten years your investment will have nearly 5 bagged without any capital appreciation in the share price or any dividend increases whatsoever.

Add in the company has zero debt, and there's a pretty large margin of safety wouldn't you say?