Advancedadvt Share Discussion Threads

[x54v] 23/5/2024 21:39

Great analysis gsmiley. Thanks for that.

[gsmiley] 23/5/2024 21:02

Ms Murria made me a decent return at CSG and 5x for me at ACS. I am therefore a real fan of hers and am as fully invested as I dare. So I am very long and hugely biased. Nevertheless, here is why i think this still looks "cheap".

Net cash and investments were (round numbers) £103m at the y/e.
Plus - SAA has risen something like 34p since then. x 12m = £4m (and with Zillah in post, SAA will do well).
Plus - ADVT is EBITDA positive so generating cash.
Plus - interest received since 29/2/24 at c. 3.75% on guess) £84-85m = £0.8 goes into the bank

Total = c £108-110m

Then we have trading. EBITDA was £3.7m for the half year to 31st December and accelerating ("ahead of expectations"). So annualised EBITDA today at a guess will be £8m+. Murria has repeatedly said she can sell these businesses "tomorrow" for an implied multiple of about 15. £8m x 15 = £120. Add non trading cash and investments and I get to £228m vs a market cap of £190m.

The above excludes Celaton, it excludes Murria's track record for buying assets cheap and I think it ignores the full effect of the business rigour she is already applying. As an example, increasing the contract value for the Human Resources stuff for a consulting firm by 4x (see at about 28:30) drops to the bottom line and the implication is clearly that she intends to do this across the board. There is about £7.5m of ARR in that division. Assume an average remaining contract term of 4 years (probably too long) and that ARR increases by about £7.5m each year for the next four. Almost all EBITDA

Last - she says we will see numbers in June (same video, a bit later I think). My guess is the indications will be for 2024-25 EBITDA in the range £12-15m (Celatron brings £1.2m EBITDA) and non trading cash and investments will still be over £100m.

To me that makes ADVT worth £2.00 - £2.40 a share today. Don't be surprised if ADVT has bought something else by the time of the results/trading update at which point the value recalculates upwards.

GLA
GS

[x54v] 23/5/2024 12:00

Plenty of momentum behind ADVT - both in the growing business and the share price.

A nice 70k bought at 141p today. Plenty of buying demand at this level.

A breakout to new highs is tantalisingly close.

[northwards] 22/5/2024 22:45

With finals next month, and a Q1 trading update in the coming weeks, there's good reason to feel greater exposure is on the way.

[x54v] 22/5/2024 16:09

Plenty of dip buyers about then including the one today who bought 40,900 shares at 137.5p which seemed to get the price moving.

The chart appears to be consolidating here. Hopefully there's a breakout to new highs in the near future.

[northwards] 21/5/2024 08:31

Looks like tree shake is over.

[x54v] 21/5/2024 08:28

Nice dip buying opportunity.

[simmsc] 20/5/2024 22:15

Based on the trades i did today in this, this was very likely a tree shake to cover their short.

[asiriusinvestor] 20/5/2024 18:09

Why the drop? Anyone know?

[crazycoops] 14/5/2024 12:25

Late June iirc

[northwards] 14/5/2024 08:28

Presume year end results should be out in the next month or so ?

[cf456] 11/5/2024 12:25

Blue sky ahead. No chart resistance until around 400p.

[someuwin] 11/5/2024 09:21

Yes, chart-wise SAA looks like it could break a lot higher...

[northwards] 11/5/2024 09:08

Year high for M&C

[x54v] 10/5/2024 21:09

"Celaton Limited, authors of inSTREAM, the leading intelligent document processing platform, has been acquired By AdvancedAdvT Ltd ("ADVT"), the London Stock Exchange listed company.

ADVT is led by tech entrepreneur, Vin Murria, one of Celaton's most supportive investors since June 2021. This means Celaton, along with four other companies acquired by ADVT recently (July 2023), becomes part of a larger group.

All Celaton colleagues will remain in their roles when the company transfers to the new owners on completion.

Jim Chase, Celaton's Executive Chairman said, "Celaton naturally aligns with ADVT’s focus of empowering customers by streamlining complexities, automating repetitive tasks, and ultimately enhancing productivity, compliance, and engagement. The transaction is a great opportunity for our customers and our team alike. We will have access to more investment as well as a larger pool of digital transformation expertise across the wider group."

The enlarged group will consist of five companies: IBSS, CHKS, Retain, WFM and Celaton."

[northwards] 10/5/2024 11:50

To say that the story has only just started here is an understatement. Really exciting future if things go as planned.

[stemis] 10/5/2024 11:02

SAA now back to the price Advt paid for their shares

[zho] 08/5/2024 14:45

Artemis reduce from 8.01% to 6.94%

[eagle eye] 07/5/2024 11:20

Today's acquisition Celaton looks a great operational fit and at x 4 EBITDA, a great price too. Celaton was founded in 2004 and Vin Murria became involved in June 21.



The fact Vin Murria has been involved for 3 years reduces the risk of due diligence and that there is a good company culture fit.
You can be sure the £2.3m development costs over the past two years have been well spent.

Celaton's website is here:



The video section gives a good insight, particularly the one featuring BBC Panorama showing how Virgin Trains use inSTREAM to enhance customer service:




Edit: Have corrected development spend which was £2.3m not £1.2m.

[northwards] 07/5/2024 09:19

Some half decent sized buys coming in. The story beginning to filter out.

[stemis] 07/5/2024 09:12

Cash increased mainly due to sale of Synaptic.

Looks like a nice but small addition to the offering of Advt. Bought from related parties but price seems good (~ 4 x ebitda).

[mpg] 07/5/2024 09:08

"Vin Murria, a Director and substantial shareholder of AdvT, and BGF Investment Management, a substantial shareholder of AdvT, each own approximately 45% of Celaton." So this is an existing private investment, already 90% owned by AdvT shareholders, being brought 'into the group'.

[northwards] 07/5/2024 08:01

So cash increased by £3.5m from end December to end Feb.

[owenski] 07/5/2024 07:51

Fleshing out the nascent empire. A good fit to sell to their other customers.