 USA
It may take up to 4 months to reschedule surgeries and medical procedures
UK NHS
BRITISH NHS SURGERY BACKLOG COULD TAKE MANY MONTHS TO WORK THROUGH, HEALTH EXPERTS WARN
Reasonable this 4 months timescale looks set to be the norm for other countries
However that depends upon there NOT being a second wave of Covid-19 cases from now to end of August .
Something buywell thinks is very unlikely based upon wave timings of approx 4 months in the Spanish Flu Pandemic 1918 to 1918 where there were 3 waves over approx 13 months duration. That was also a virus .
The way I read what has been said AMS could take a turnover hit of circa 5% per month of postponements , which started in earnest circa Mid March
buywell is now of the opinion that it seems not unreasonable that approx 4 months to 5 months of elective surgery procedures could be lost from march 14th .
If another wave of Covid-19 cases kicks off , which buywell is of the opinion as being highly likely V Spanish Flu scenario
Then elective surgeries will IMO be kicked into touch once again which effectively would mean they would never have restarted in any meaningful way from their first suspension date of March 14th ( reason being as explained in first two links)
This is pretty serious stuff for Hospitals in the USA , many of which have laid off staff as they depend on getting monies in per patient operation ie not like NHS.
Will the Democrats push for a USA NHS model ?
buywell doubts it as the lobbyists ie BIG Pharma , tell the politicians over there what to do.
IMO dyor |
Fella's got his AMLs and AMSs all mixed... |
Put the link up please IMO that is not very likely
Current PE at 26 does look very punchy , in current market perhaps 13 could be argued.
So buywell has looked at some technicals , namely Momentum and MACD
IF the USA now undertakes down leg number 2 perhaps as Covid wave number 2 cranks up
Then 180p is IMO possible
Here below is why
Chartwise support is at 200p
It might hold , then again it might not , 180p is next, then 155p
IMO dyor |
Peel Hunt say AML is now worth no more than 30p today... expect a drop soon |
Probably because the sp’s gone down the toilet. |
Nibbled a few here.
Some very heavy buying coming in here today and last week. Really does stick out like a sore thumb. |
Different entry points, different timeframes, different methodologies. Long term hold or try to play the ups and downs.
Even after the fall from all time highs, a compound 23% a year is not to be sniffed at. In my case (and I suspect anybody else who is still here from sub-15p) AMS is the wellspring of my portfolio that just gives and gives.
I do admit to a bit of sentimentality in continuing to have a small legacy holding. |
‘...a nice steady performer’.
Are you sure you’ve got the right board?
Steadily downwards, perhaps. |
It is never going to do an Asos, but yes ... a nice steady performer.
I have held since sub 15p and still holding onto circa 64000 shares. I know I shouldn't get sentimental but the company has done long term holders proud. :-) |
AMS is one of the top picks in this weeks MoneyWeek. Page 25 for the paper version.
Last weeks article on AIM mentioned Asos going from 3 p to £77.
I'll try and get a link. |
Nearly 5.4m shares traded today..! |
Hi all,
My mate Peter @Conkers3 and myself did a Twin Petes Investing Podcast a few days ago and AMS was one of the Stocks that we discussed. We also talked in depth about the current situation in the Markets and how we reckon things could play out. Anyway, if you use Apple or Audioboom you can find them under the 'Conkers Corner' Channel (you want TPI Podcast 20) and you can find it on Soundcloud at the link below.
Ideal Easter listening whilst you are locked away !!
Cheers, WD
@wheeliedealer |
All bit.ly links are spam ... I always filter them straight away. |
peter9310 was spamming, I tried his link and it required registration. I then checked his recent posts and the same post was on dozens of other boards. |
peter9310, would you please copy and send the article, I cannot get the link to work. Cheers, dealit. |
06/04/2020 07:01 UKREG Advanced Medical Solutions Grp PLC Clinical Development Programme
Suggest you check the wording |
Based on a 6 month loss of revenue at 10% per month, AMS would still have revenue £50m
according to the last trading figures IMHO. |
And AMS might need it , every penny and more besides
Nobody knows how long Covid-19 is going to be around
Depends when a cure, a drug, is found and made and distributed around the world for sale
IMO 6 Months
Ditto a new vaccine 6 months minimum
Do the maths re cash burn
dyor |
"With £65m of cash in the bank and no debt at 31 December 2019, AMS is in robust financial condition. Furthermore, in the unlikely event that it’s needed, there is also an undrawn unsecured £80m credit facility. AMS is committing to a final dividend for 2019 of 1.05p per share, costing approx. £2.25m." |
By now most here will know that Health Services in those countries currently badly affected by Covid-19 have and are suspending many operations if not all usually planned surgical procedures so that operating rooms can be turned into Intensive Care Units (ICU's) to treat Covid-19 patients.
The problem is nobody knows how long this situation will last
---------------- Covid-19 a very insidious virus ------------------
The Covid-19 situation is bad enough in this first wave sweeping through various continents and ALL countries of the Globe.
However till a treatment and cure is found then after lock downs are removed
There is a very real IMO chance of a second wave of infections which would then lead to a second tranche of lock downs
Therein lies the nub of the Covid-19 problem
Might even get a 3rd or 4th wave before this story ends
Circa 25% of people with Covid-19 do not show any symptoms and do not even know they have got it BUT they are spreading it to others .
USA markets will dictate where the EU and UK go
Jobless claims have doubled in a week
With weeks to go as cases increase in NY City and now LA and other US cities kicking off it is difficult to find an argument to support US markets rallying as unemployment numbers continue to rise further .
On present trajectory such claims look set to top 12M within 10 days IMO
On a general viewpoint IMO FTSE to 4500 is buywell call
Some FTSE 100 stocks may well have to be nationalized
UK Debt could well now rise to circa 200% of present 2.2 Trillion pounds GDP before a cure and vaccine are found , these may even not be forthcoming.
A different Flu comes along each year
Flu is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses
Not much difference , both can cause pneumonia ,
pneumonia can then cause sepsis
sepsis then can cause septic shock , with a 40% fatality rate
Covid-19 might be here to stay albeit slightly mutated each year
10% of over 80's are dying from sepsis and septic shock after acquiring Covid-19
soon 200p IMO looks likely and that P/E could IMO get halved to 12 before this ends
dyor |
Dealit - I do not share that feeling. Odd to get excited over 1.05 pence. |
I would feel that IMHO there could be a surge in buying pre register date. |
Fingers crossed for that, more medium term IMHO. |
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