Adriatic Metals Share Discussion Threads

[hazl] 12/9/2024 13:34

Thanks the Apiarist.
Also silver is very much a theme currently.
Did you see that report about the discovery, by the Chinese, I believe, that silver can self heal?
Gold cannot it seems.

[theapiarist] 12/9/2024 11:12

Just a couple of issues, hazl - the tailings problem and the CEO's resignation.

Apart from which, everything appears to be proceeding according to plan.

At a back of the envelope level the economics look compelling.

2025 silver output should be 800,000 x 187 x 0.035 = 5.236 million ounces.

The silver equivalent AISC according to the DFS is $7.3/oz. Being conservative let's say $10.

Therefore today's margin = $18.8/ounce of Ag.

Producing a pretax profit = $98 million

Less 10% Bosnian corporation tax = $88 million

First debt repayment is not due until Dec. 2024 by which time the company should comfortably be in a position to service Orion's loan and be debt free within 18 months.

Barring some unforeseen mishap, at 150 compared to analyst targets of circa 250 there wouldn't appear to be much downside but plenty of upside.

We'll have a clearer picture come the New Year!

[hazl] 12/9/2024 07:55

I'm feeling very much more cheered by this now.

[swanvesta] 11/9/2024 11:35

Yup, good luck hazl.

[hazl] 11/9/2024 07:24

An Operations Update will be announced on 23 September 2024, followed by a webinar presentation by Laura Tyler, Interim CEO and Michael Horner, Interim CFO. Further details of the webinar will be provided in due course.






$58.8m in cash at the end of the Period places the Company in a strong financial position with sufficient contingency ahead of reaching sustainable production.

[hazl] 11/9/2024 07:16

Fair enough swanvesta they do seem to play many tricks of the trade (legal I'm sure) and information is power.
However they are quick to change their stance, as well, as we have witnessed.
As long as this comes good in the end, that's the main thing for me anyway.

And I note a few signs of sector interest and recovery.
CEY takeover talk yesterday.
GGP a deal done today.

Green shoots perhaps.


IMO

[hazl] 11/9/2024 07:12

Is there signs the worm has turned?

Will that pattern turn into a 'W'?


Questions questions.

[swanvesta] 10/9/2024 09:57

Count, read my post 164 and subsequent. No point boring everyone by repeating myself. Cheers.

[the count of monte_cristo] 09/9/2024 11:07

Swanvesta, what is your point?

[swanvesta] 04/9/2024 13:17

hazl,

I don't want to drag this out (or repeat myself too much) but as I said before Goldman ARE reporting securities lending:



My last on the subject, unless/until someone with REAL KNOWLEDGE engages.

[the count of monte_cristo] 04/9/2024 00:33

I can see this going to 120p

[hazl] 27/8/2024 11:59

Hmmm suggests a low of 230 for next year, cannot see what the remainder are.

IMO

[hazl] 27/8/2024 10:48

Why I don't think you're right about the securities lending.



Here in a different stock, Blackrock make quite clear that there is a securities lending quantity.

We do not have the same information on ADT1.
It looks to me a straight forward purchase.
Also if you go to the short tracker site we do not seem to feature.

If there is a recession next year the mining stocks like this can do quite well.

[hazl] 23/8/2024 11:31

Fair enough.

[swanvesta] 23/8/2024 11:10

JPM has mostly declared ADRs, so that seems more legitimate, though again I'm really looking for more learned input on the nature and uses of these instruments. I notice T Rowe upped to 10%+ recently too.

I am not short, though I have sold the position I had for many years and am waiting for concrete news on the ramp up before recommitting. I am certainly suspicious of big US bank shenanigans in the meantime.

[hazl] 23/8/2024 08:03

The Dow premarket looks better.

Gold is up, silver is up what more can you ask for?
Perhaps the drop for this company is over and you're just clinging onto your short?
Who knows?

[hazl] 23/8/2024 06:51

Well swan I agree that can happen but last time they bought it rose and I see JPM are doing same today.

[hazl] 23/8/2024 06:50

Increased holding.



IMO

[swanvesta] 21/8/2024 09:11

Notice that the majority of Goldman's notification involves a POTENTIAL interest via securities lending. That suggests to me it's acting as counterparty to shorts, and when the shorts close it will get the shares back. But I suspect those shares are also borrowed, so it has no or only a small net exposure. It's a bank, acting as a market maker, borrowing shares off clients who are long and relending them to other clients to sell short. Maybe I'm wrong, but it doesn't seem an unreasonable explanation to me. I know that my broker (IBKR) does this all the time with client holdings.

[hazl] 20/8/2024 09:05

It seems to me that the best approach is to watch when G Sachs buy and when they sell.

So far the share price has responded accordingly.
Surely if they don't know what is going on in the market nobody does?


Having said that I tend to notice what they DO and not what they SAY.


imo

[swanvesta] 14/8/2024 07:19

I'm primarily going by my experience with other shares. Notice they are declaring positions in swaps and other derivatives. If as I suspect they are acting as a liquidity provider they are not taking on risk themselves. So you have to ask who they are providing a service to, and whether "optics" might be a part of that service.

At any rate, I admit I don't fully understand the contents of these notifications and what I'm really looking for is an intelligible explanation.