Admiral Share Discussion Threads

[sat69] 31/7/2007 16:42

Closed up 7% to 820p. There you go C3! Looks like the next stop is 880p

[c3jns] 30/7/2007 16:41

Thanks.........

[sat69] 30/7/2007 16:36

Held up well today in a choppy market. Looks like we have hit the bottom - soon be over £8 again.

[nicksoj] 30/7/2007 15:20

The fact that the company has not given in to RNS posting whilst conceeding 40% value and with half yearly results coming up in 5-6 weeks time - IMO - This is a sign of yet another strong 6 months. Has this company ever produced anything other than forecast beating results? Looking forward to see how Spain has fared and if Germany will launch this autumn? Oh yes, and how much money Confused has made.

Now is the time to be in.

[c3jns] 30/7/2007 14:11

Have we bottomed? Any thoughts would be appreciated....

[w r] 30/7/2007 10:10

sat - do you still hold prty?

[sat69] 27/7/2007 17:21

A small recovery today in a falling market - always a good sign. Should be back to £8 next week.

[baughfell] 26/7/2007 22:59

This baby goes thru support like a knife through butter. Major support is at £5.50 - but is has to stop before then?!

c3jns, my advice is don't buy till there is a definate turnaround and then set a stop below the turn.

[slogsweep] 26/7/2007 08:16

This is oversold , but that does not mean it won't fall further . I see it as a buying op. but got in too soon topping up @ 870. I dont buy argument that floods could result in subtantially higher claims . Cars unlike houses can be moved to higher ground. Reduced traffic due to flooding could cut accidents. So expect effect negligible.

[c3jns] 25/7/2007 09:28

Any views on the bottom here.........

[baughfell] 24/7/2007 21:40

Yes, there seems to be quite a few outperform recommendations. I've been spreadbetting ADM both long and short but bought some for my ISA today and will probably get the opportunity to buy cheaper tomorrow. Looks a good medium term hold. However, the chart (from which i do all my short-term trading) looks bloody awful!

[nicksoj] 24/7/2007 20:49

Baughfell, more detail on that Barclays upgrade:

We have just upgraded car insurers Admiral back to Outperform. The shares have fallen more than 35% since mid-April, which should make this an excellent buying opportunity. Admiral has a simple but very strong business model, and leads the industry in several areas including its underwriting track record, flexible reinsurance agreements and low expense ratios.

The Cardiff-based company was founded in 1993 to sell insurance directly to customers (a relatively new idea at the time), particularly to those who then found it hard to get traditional insurance, such as younger drivers, city dwellers and performance-car owners. It now has a strong stable of brands including online insurers elephant.co.uk, Diamond (for female drivers) and confused.com, a 'one-stop shop' search engine for the cheapest car insurance deals, which trebled its profits to £23 million last year.

Admiral was one of the first car insurers to sell online (back in 1995), which gives it an advantage in this area. Competitors could close the gap in the coming years, but the increasing number of web shoppers should keep Admiral's internet sales ship-shape.

It has been a tough few years for the motor insurance industry, but Admiral has proved that it can deliver even at the bottom of the cycle, with compound annual growth of over 20% since the company was founded. We expect the underlying cycle to turn positive shortly – Admiral is highly geared to the health of the industry, and well-placed to benefit from any turnaround.

Admiral has low capital requirements, and pays out around 80% of its earnings as dividends – testament to its powerful cash-generating abilities. The shares could also benefit from international growth; the group currently has a seed operation in Spain, and more overseas ventures are expected.

We think Admiral shares are worth 1150p, over a third more than the current price. This is equivalent to 25 times prospective earnings, which may seem high, but we think this is justified. With its excellent growth record, high dividend payout and low risk of failure, Admiral should sail ahead in 2007.



However, fortune continues to favour the falling knife. But for how long...?

[liquidkid] 24/7/2007 12:37

I see lots of cars floating around car parks, is that claimable?

[nicksoj] 24/7/2007 10:58

Why not £6 ? This insco is a shorters dream !

[c3jns] 24/7/2007 10:43

The trend is your friend as the saying goes £7 could be on the cards...I hope i'm wrong, could do with an RNS to steady things!!

[baughfell] 24/7/2007 08:42

Barclays upgraded last week, target 1150p

[sat69] 23/7/2007 16:44

You are right Don - It clearly is a falling knife. It was only the double-whammy of the non-sale of Confused.com, and then the huge payouts forecast to settle the flood damage that has led to these falls. However, these are 'one-off' events, and as the fundamentals are still sound, I believe this is a very safe bet.

I agree with you C3 that these should never have fallen below 800p - but at least they have recovered.

As Mr. Buffet says - the best time to buy a stock is when there is blood on the streets. This seems quite appropriate here!

sat

[c3jns] 23/7/2007 12:18

Well i never thought you could buy these sub £8.........

[don777] 23/7/2007 10:49

very good company
but i am a bit worrying that if we entered now, we might caught a falling knife.

[sat69] 22/7/2007 15:47

Having seen the news, it's obviously the recent floods that have caused investors to sell on fears over the massive payouts over car damage. Only a short term issue. The insures will no doubt raise their premiums and get their money back.

[graham99114] 21/7/2007 12:31

That was one hell of a fall on friday -
As at 21-Jul-2007 12:15:02
819.000 -36.50 -4.27%

Any one heard any rumours ?

[sat69] 21/7/2007 12:04

Closed down 4% on Friday at 819p - at a one year low. At these levels, I'm expecting either a broker upgade or a bid rumour to give the share price the boost it needs.

[graham99114] 20/7/2007 23:00

long term holder of admiral and it has gone from being a jewel (in the crown) to a thorn (in my side) - lost £ -876 today so pretty P*&&ed but ......

cant believe the broker comment "Numis has upgraded its rating for Admiral to buy from add with a £13 target price." - thats a 60% plus uplft on todays price - what does that guy smoke ?

Come on admiral - pull yourself out the trend.

[sat69] 20/7/2007 20:00

Made my first purchase today at 820p. These look heavily oversold...and all because they din't sell Confused.com? Surely they are in for a big bounce from here...