Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 30/4/2024 10:37

Good to see 50p on the ASK side of the book for the new management team at Afentra this morning - its the highest shareprice the stock has seen since 2014, when Brent had previously been averaging over $135/bbl adjusted for inflation for a four year period.

[fatfish] 29/4/2024 16:34

Had a little dabble myself today.
Also, Mount Teidi, yes long may the trolls stay away.

[zengas] 29/4/2024 16:17

Quite simply doing what it said on the tin from day one under McDade and Co.

As time progresses and the next assets are added i expect it to progress to a future 4 bagger from these levels.

A wild card for further upward momentum in the share price would be a sucessful exploration well given the licence prospects reserves potential and RF in line with the existing producing assets.

[mount teide] 29/4/2024 15:21

Considering the exceptional potential here, and the fact the stock has quietly generated over 100% capital gain in a year.........highly encouraging that AET still remains little more than a small blip on the extreme outer edge of the investment community radar, and on a thread where church mice make more noise!

Long may it continue......as it's enabling well researched investors, as the investment case continues to strengthen, to average up on pullbacks at a 'value' price,

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 29/4/2024 13:44

Encouraging to see the shareprice continuing to push further North on strong buying pressure.

Including high 5 and 6 figure trades at the full ASK price.

[onedayrodders] 27/4/2024 13:02

Baron Investments
@baroninvestment
A very encouraging meeting held with #AET. Confidence further enhanced #Afentra

[apotheki] 26/4/2024 15:20

Afentra

Afentra has provided the following update regarding the previously announced Angolan acquisition.

Government Approval of Azule Acquisition

Afentra is pleased to announce that it has received approval from the Government of Angola for the previously announced acquisition of a 12% non-operating interest in Block 3/05 and a 16% non-operating interest in Block 3/05A from Azule Energy Angola Production B.V. (‘Azule’), pursuant to a sale and purchase agreement between Azule and Afentra’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Afentra (Angola) Ltd, dated 19 July 2023.

The Company is now working with Azule to finalise the formal completion of the Azule Acquisition which is anticipated to occur within Q2 2024 as previously announced. At that time, we will provide an update on the deal completion including the asset cashflow from the 1 October 2022 effective date.

Punja Discovery Block 3/05A – Enhanced Fiscal Terms

Following a request by the Block 3/05A partnership the Government of Angola have declared the Punja Development Area located in Block 3/05A, as a marginal discovery. As a result, the applicable fiscal incentives will be applied to this discovery, significantly enhancing the commercial value of this potential development.

Commenting on the update, CEO Paul McDade said:

“The Angolan government’s approval of the Azule Acquisition allows us to proceed with the completion of our third transaction in Angola providing Afentra a material equity position in these world-class assets. The improved fiscal terms for the Punja Discovery is another clear indication of the support given by the Government of Angola to parties willing to invest in their oil and gas sector. This further encourages us to continue to work with Sonangol and our joint venture partners to grow production and reserves as we develop the vast potential of both the producing fields in Block 3/05 and the significant discoveries within Block 3/05A.”

Approval for this addition in Angola that we already knew about is fantastic news and takes the stakes in blocks 3/05 and 3/05 to 30% and 21.33% on completion if my memory is correct. In addition the news about the Punja discovery means that the Government want to make it work and shows further assistance to oil and gas industry.

Theres a very good reason that the shares are in the bucket list and why they have doubled in the last year, with a target price of 100p they remain amongst the winners in the selection box, and what’s more, there’s more to come…

[cf456] 26/4/2024 14:39

"A very encouraging meeting held with #AET. Confidence further enhanced #Afentra"

[cf456] 26/4/2024 13:32

"Theres a very good reason that the shares are in the bucket list and why they have doubled in the last year, with a target price of 100p they remain amongst the winners in the selection box, and what’s more, there’s more to come…"

[eringael] 26/4/2024 10:51

Indeed and very generous of said posters to share their research and analysis with fellow investors, also nice to have a relatively quiet thread.

[onedayrodders] 26/4/2024 10:21

This thread is lucky to have such quality posters

[xxnjr] 26/4/2024 09:48

AO:PAT ATD: 2024-04-26 05:10
VN:DQT ETA: 2024-05-26 05:00

FSO Palanca has completed another offload. Suezmax class tanker Delta Blue is heading for Vietnam. Not sure what it tells us other than oil is still being produced!

Good news on the Azule approval.

[yumyum] 26/4/2024 09:24

Thank you MT. Very good analysis. I see Cavendish estimate YE2024 post tax earnings as $42.5m. They also see upfront Azule deal closure costs as $27m, for which Afentra have up to $35m in debt facilities available. Cavendish expect part of the costs to be paid for from available cash. Their target price is a modest 56p per share.

edit : and YE2024 net cash of $9.8m

Cavendish estimate total sales for YE2024 as $126.1m. I estimate sales as $178.5m - basis $85 Brent, 7000bbl/day and 300 days (to take account of maintenance).

[bronislav] 26/4/2024 08:00

I wonder if we are linked with Tende energy.

[tim000] 26/4/2024 07:52

Personally I have no price targets for the company. The business model entails acquiring highly cash-generative assets with relatively little cash outlay, and the Directors have no limits to their planned expansion, if the acquisitions meet their hurdles. And there are plenty of targets around, with Angola looking to grow its oil output considerably, and the majors divesting their smaller, mature fields. AET’s growth potential is unlimited. I don’t see why it can’t be a billion-dollar business within the next 5 years, say. No point selling if the share price hits your target, just double the target again.

[lauders] 26/4/2024 05:58

FWIW here is Malcy's opinion on yesterday's news: Approval for this addition in Angola that we already knew about is fantastic news and takes the stakes in blocks 3/05 and 3/05 to 30% and 21.33% on completion if my memory is correct. In addition the news about the Punja discovery means that the Government want to make it work and shows further assistance to oil and gas industry.

Theres a very good reason that the shares are in the bucket list and why they have doubled in the last year, with a target price of 100p they remain amongst the winners in the selection box, and what’s more, there’s more to come…



100p would be nice. May even get higher than that with new deal news. Should be a great year for AET no matter how you look at it!

[mount teide] 25/4/2024 22:03

Seeking Alpha post from Analyst Robert Whelan on today's news:

'Fantastic news this morning. Afentra have received the third government approval from the ministry of energy in Angola. This paves the way to completion of the final 12% of Block 3/05 and will add to the already completed 18%.

Production currently up from 18,100 2023 average to 23,100 bopd gross (30% or 7,000 net to Afentra ). 2023 estimated asset level cash flow to Afentra was $67.4 million so looks like 2024 will beat that easily. (better economic terms from 01 Jan 24 also).

Not bad for a company with a market capitalisation of £105 million!

Keep your eyes on this company folks'

Many here may remember Robert publishing an incredibly well researched and balanced Seeking Alpha article back in December 2023 setting out the investment case for Afentra - well worth a read for those that may have missed it, or for a refresh, as Robert knocked the ball out the park with the quality of his analysis.

Afentra Acquired Assets Worth $255m, With Only $37m Cash: Here's How:

[onedayrodders] 25/4/2024 16:16

fair enough tim ... but I'll still stick my neck out and say 50 handle here by mid May

;o)

[dragon35] 25/4/2024 14:05

Multiples of FCF, DCF based on $85 oil $75 oil etc with field life stated in CPR, EV, NPV take your pick and I am sure it's already been covered by the analysts note on their website. Equally we know their cost of approx $35 a barrel and we roughly know what they are selling it for and we know how much they are selling, so it depends how accurate you want your be. Based on any of the above it's undervalued right now.

[cardinal3] 25/4/2024 12:22

Any thoughts of a reasonable valuation here? The deal-making is taking time but gets there in the end.

[tim000] 25/4/2024 12:11

ODR, indeed, I know we’re all on the same page. I know my point is a simple one, but it’s never a bad thing to remember that short-term movements in the share price are almost random and not indicative of value.

[onedayrodders] 25/4/2024 11:21

I'm not stressing on today's share price tim, just making an observation

[catsick] 25/4/2024 10:15

Wow all the way back down, this is the final barrier out of the way, once we see the final settlement figures in a couple of weeks we will have a perfect picture for the first time, I reckon the ev per flowing barrel will then be around 17k usd, a fair price for a small cap producer should be around 50k , plus this pudja development potentially could add at least double the barrels at a cost of sub 5k , all in all this is a crazy undervalued share ...

[rimau1] 25/4/2024 10:09

Anyone thinking of taking profits IMO should study VLE. The market likes to reward an operational track record that backs up the business case. VLE has more than doubled since it acquired its Thai assets on a flat oil price.

[tim000] 25/4/2024 09:51

I’m sure the Directors don’t fuss about daily movements in the share price, their job is to grow the business. We too need the same approach; no one knows when exactly the share price will rise, or by how much. If you just buy and hold, MT’s mantra, none of that really matters. It’s clear that AET has enormous potential to grow into a substantial business, our only decision is how much of our available capital do we deploy on the journey.