Accrol Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 17/4/2023 20:41

LSE are showing 4.8m ACRL traded today.
Large trades went through off book at 31.5p and auction ended at 32.7p

[darrin1471] 17/4/2023 19:31

stevieweebie2 Thanks.

I was looking at two indicators:

This one is flat over 6 months:


This one indicates a 30% fall since Jan 10th high.


Do you know of any other listed companies that will benefit from the fall in pulp prices.
I have been watching James Cropper (CRPR) who are down 60% in just over a year but the chart is currently a falling knife.

[stevieweebie2] 17/4/2023 16:54

darrin

sorry, only just seen this.

yes, prices crashing not just in tissue sector but also pakaging.
circa 25/30% off the high in the last few months. thankfully pulp also now starting the fall though. (to help the mills)
Margin should be excellent here,however the retailers are now presssing for reductions, it really depends on the lag effect. I stll hold as this looks promising here, cheap Parent reels from a large overseas supplier in the market means that margins should hopefully be maintained.

[darrin1471] 06/4/2023 17:39

stevieweebie2 Any update on reel prices?

[jimmyloser] 10/3/2023 11:16

Thanks for that, it is was the most uplifting interview that I have seen. I have said it before and so I will say it again and again.
I LIKE GARETH JENKINS, NO NONSENSE, NO FLIM FLAM, JUST HONEST COMMENTS.

I sleep well.

[ga_dti] 10/3/2023 10:31

Latest interview with Gareth Jenkins discussing the agreement with Unilever -

[this_is_me] 07/3/2023 11:20

Bought a few more earlier this morning.

[darrin1471] 07/3/2023 09:10

The addition of Shore Capital as Joint Broker may lead to a new brokers note which may better reflect the boards guidance on improved gross margins and EBITDA

[darrin1471] 01/3/2023 20:25

Accrol say "The current Lifebuoy range includes two of the top four selling SKUs in the UK major retailers". This does not sound right to me. I know Lifebuoy is a historic hard soap brand and I searched their current range on Tesco, Ocado and Amazon. Lifebuoy sell an antibacterial handwash and sanitiser. Those SKU sales must be due to covid sales.
The idea of selling a licenced brand at a price point between the brand leader and private label equivalents at higher margins looks a good strategy but I am unsure what quality the soap brand Lifebuoy brings to a kitchen roll unless it was an "antibacterial kitchen roll".

[wad collector] 01/3/2023 19:35

Must confess that I was surprised to see in the press release.
"Lifebuoy is the third most-chosen FMCG brand globally, being picked by consumers more than a billion times a year"
I checked and it is true, it is even above Pepsi, Nescafe and Nestle. Extraordinary, I must confess I don't spend a lot of time in the Aisles , but clearly I need to get out more...

[this_is_me] 01/3/2023 07:42

It looks like we can sell a quality branded product at a lower price than the competition. Unilever have recently brought the brand back to the UK although their soaps are no longer carbolic (containing phenol) but still a massive worldwide brand. Unilever may be thinking of widening the brand worldwide into tissue products and not just kitchen towel.

[jimmyloser] 01/3/2023 07:31

Awesome news and I suspect further news to follow in other areas of this business.

A top investment for me Accrol. It was the pedigree of the team running it that attracted me in.

[mfhmfh] 01/3/2023 07:21

"This agreement with Unilever, our first licensing deal, is a step change for Accrol..."

[darrin1471] 31/1/2023 13:25

clocktower
From webinar: FY23/24 cash generation will be "quite profound".

From H1 "adjusted net debt at 31 October 2022 was lower than anticipated at c.GBP30.5m.... Adjusted net debt at the full year end remains on track with market forecasts, which were lowered at the time of the trading update to less than 1.5x EBITDA."

I did not write down any long term debt targets from the webinar but with significant cash generation I do not see debt as an issue. I think debt would be close to zero in 18 months if they chose to retain all the cash generated.

I would speculate that ACRL would want a higher market cap to enable them to raise more capital for acquisitions. If ACRL market cap is not fair value in management eyes it may be better to use cash the generated for share buy backs.

[tomps2] 31/1/2023 12:57

Accrol, CEO Gareth Jenkins, CFO, Richard Newman & Group Financial Controller (and CFO designate), Chris Welsh, present the interim results for the six months ended 31 October 2022.

“There was strong progress across all businesses and products. The Group has performed well in H2 to date and is on track to achieve revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth for the year ending 30 April 2023 (“FY23″) marginally ahead of expectations at £230m and £15.5m respectively.”

Watch the video here:

Or listen to the podcast here:

[clocktower] 31/1/2023 11:42

What I do not like is the report that suggests buy backs and dividends while still carrying such a level of debt and using more funds for a mill etc. I have not posted my views before as I sold out at a lower level, than it is currently but with a profit I am pleased to say.

However,I do not like shorting good companies that employ hard working staff in the UK but if I was minded to I personally think there is more to make on a falling share price than a rising one at current levels - 32.6-33p

Good luck and if it drops to a level that I think offers more upside, I will reinvest, so good luck to holders.

[arbus5000] 27/1/2023 18:55

Lombard Odier increased their stake a notch, obv they dont read the IC

[jimmyloser] 27/1/2023 17:37

I second that Darrin. Nice to have a civilised board for comment.

[arbus5000] 27/1/2023 17:15

thanks for the useful summary Darrin

[darrin1471] 27/1/2023 16:07

From the webinar the most important thing for the short term is that ACRL will benefit from falling input prices like they lost out when the prices rose. Input prices are flat now and expected to fall.
Cost of living crisis will have a positive impact on Accrol overall.
EBITDA in teens of revenue and gross margins back to normal which could be up to 30%.
FY23/24 cash generation will be "quite profound".
Accrol "ridiculously undervalued". If starting again today it would take £150m to buy current assets and 15 years to build UK customer base.
Will consider spending cash generated on share buy back if share price remains undervalued.
Accrol biggest asset is their customer base as shown by John Dale acquisition. Future acquisitions should make use of the existing customer base rather than geographical expansion.

Mill will cost Accrol £10m including one machine, land and building (grants?). Not leasing building or machine. Expect multiple updates on progress soon and over coming months.

20% capacity available on toilet roll and kitchen towel.
Facial tissue can increase capacity from £20m to £30m with an investment of £1m
Wet wipes can double to £12m on existing lines and an investment of £3m over 3 years can increase capacity in the existing building to £40m

[darrin1471] 27/1/2023 13:23

I thought the webinar was excellent.

Results presentation:

hxxps://www.accrol.co.uk/app/uploads/2023/01/230124-AGH-PLC-Half-Year-Results-Presentation-Final-Version.pdf