Abrdn Property Income Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 30/9/2022 08:20

HY results:

Interim Report and Accounts for half year ended 30 June 2022

The Directors of abrdn Property Income Trust Limited (the “Company”) are pleased to announce the Unaudited Interim Report and Accounts for the half year ended 30 June 2022 are available from the Company’s website at: [see header]

Only it isn't. It will be here, eventually I suppose:

[nickrl] 29/9/2022 21:58

Specto both the loan and the RCF are due April 23.

[spectoacc] 29/9/2022 15:36

Is only a portion of debt, but completely agree - anyone could see (as we said at the time) that 2.25% was well short of the top, even then.

[riverman77] 29/9/2022 15:22

Idiotic not to have fixed their debt before now - I fixed my mortgage for 5y a couple of years ago, as it was an obvious no brainer to lock in debt at 1.5% (very little downside but massive upside as we're seeing now). Thankfully they are on a fairly modest LTV of around 20% so that should lessen the impact when they have to refinance at 5% next year.

[spectoacc] 29/9/2022 15:06

Aren't we due results to end the closed period? Can only think they believed ABRDN's ridiculous interest rate prediction, didn't roll their debt, and are now struggling to. But hope I'm wrong.

[nickrl] 28/9/2022 23:50

rambutan re #62 notwithstanding action BoE taken today i had a punt round other REITs and saw that CREI could only get 4.1% for 10 years back in mid june so for sure 5%-6% plus would seem more likely range i agree which just worsens position on dividend coverage.

[nexusltd] 28/9/2022 12:30

Read the December 2021 Annual Report. P35.

[fanshaw] 28/9/2022 12:15

I have tried to find out if this trust is RIET can any body confirm .
Many Thanks.

[dr biotech] 28/9/2022 11:48

Just tried to buy 20k here, but no dice. Reduced it to 5k, still no joy, so will let it goes as a worked order. Hoping todays announcement by the BoE will allay rate rise fears a little. The near 50% discount seems absurd, even tough that’s likely to drop.

Biggest shock for me is that labour look more credible than the tories right now. Haven’t thought that this millennia.

[rambutan2] 27/9/2022 22:53

spoole5, I was referring to the down 26.5% in just over 3 weeks bit. Should have made myself clearer.

nickrl, 4.5% sounds like a fond imagining? Surely well north of 5%?

[nickrl] 27/9/2022 22:43

API at FY had a 110m loan at 2.725%, a undrawn 55m RCF and 13m of cash. Since then they've repurchased c15m share at cost of c12m, bought a motor dealer for 5m and have 12m capital commitment on St Helens development. So c£28-30m of cash burnt through or committed since FY so looks like they would need to raise 140m to give them working capital.

Currently they have 3.3m interest bill on the 110m loan but refinancing at 140m will cost at least 4.5% which would will add 3m to interest bill so further reduce the current dividend cover. So is divi safe?

One thing that should be reasonable sure with their low LTV they should be able to secure funding but at what rate?

[spoole5] 27/9/2022 15:41

So they stopped!!

[rambutan2] 27/9/2022 15:40

But they've not sorted their debt. So I can see why.

[skyship] 27/9/2022 15:36

Now down 26.5% on their last buyback just over 3 weeks ago.

[skyship] 27/9/2022 15:32

Is API going to be the third REIT falling to an historic NAV discount > 50%.

UKCM now at 50.1% & CLI @ 60%!

[spectoacc] 27/9/2022 13:30

Yes good point, probably waiting for the crack Aberdeen team (Bonzo & Blinky) to give them their interest rate forecast for the commentary.

[hugepants] 27/9/2022 13:15

I assume they need to release the results before the closed period ends.

[spectoacc] 27/9/2022 10:21

Thanks, that might broadly fit with previous post. Guess for the 1.8m, it's how much equity they have - massively better rates at 40% deposit than at the 10% deposit they may have started off with (ie because of house price growth).

But prices are set at the margins, so even if just a relatively small number see a doubling of interest rate (tho not doubling of repayments), that could still have a big effect. I know several with big 2nd mortgages that are floating rate, & the receding tide is likely to catch them out.

Tho still think there's a large pool of buyers waiting and wanting to buy, which would make any falls long & drawn out, & make the housing market look resilient.

More falls on REITs this morning, API relatively OK, closed period should have ended today (may not affect buy backs but could see a few director purchases?).

[llef] 27/9/2022 10:15

Re fixed rate mortgages, I read somewhere that around 20% of mortgages are floating, 40% 2 year fixed, 40% 5 year fixed, and that around 1.8m fixed rate mortgages will come to maturity in next 12 months.

[spectoacc] 26/9/2022 06:46

1.05... [Edit - hit 1.03-something overnight! Strewth. 1.06 now looks a relief.]

This week will be key. Don't rule out a BoE emergency meeting & +1%, which will bring back strong memories for me of 1992 & exiting the ERM.

I've forgotten all the facts for FRM but even if average was say 12 months, it still means a long time for rising rates to have much effect.

[Edit - from BoE, doesn't say duration:
"Currently, 74 per cent of homeowner mortgages are on a fixed rate contract, with 96 per cent of new borrowers choosing this option since 2019.."]

The stamp duty cut won't have been in the BoE's minds either - why they'd want to pour more petrol on the housing market I don't know. Stamp duty needs reform (like taxes need reducing), but not right now.

We digress :)

Parity is one thing, but if £1 buys less than $1?

If KamiKwasi reverses and takes away BoE independence, that's the point at which all bets are off.

[nickrl] 25/9/2022 23:10

Specto whilst a lot of homeowners are sitting on fixed mortgage rates what is the average length I wonder remaining on terms as this must surely influence how far they can push up rates without risking a banking crisis. In the short term higher rates would have had little difference other than choking off the housing mkt and BoE were fully aware that Kwarteng was going to go large on spending even if they didn't have the specifics so have been remiss imv although i wasn't surprised they only did 0.5%. Anyhow i see early door Asian trade has £/$ below 1.09 already.
Edit: 1.08 at 2312

[spectoacc] 25/9/2022 19:48

As an aside - the Bank were due to start on QT, but fair to say that's going to be out the window with the state of the Gilt market. And if no QT, rates are going higher than if there'd been QT.

5% odds have strengthened - would it surprise anyone to see that move out to 6%, even 7%, with the way the £'s been going? At what point does KamiKwasi row back on leaving the BoE independent?

This coming week should tell us a great deal. Let's hope it's short-term panic & a return to wait-and-see. Things could unwind rapidly otherwise.

[llef] 25/9/2022 11:48

Nickrl, thanks for the ARI update.
I agree with you re the likelyhood of base rates being 4% plus at some stage.

The government have effectively told the BOE "Do your worst", so I think BOE have little choice but to act quickly and forcibly to show their independence.

Its going to be a difficult time with the BOE and government pulling in different directions, and the government seemingly indifferent to that friction.

cheers