so what is going on here? |
That's pretty hefty volume today with those two? big trades |
PA, I look at it in the same manner. The return on the remaining fragment could be significant owing to the inherent leverage, but also one must consider the far higher remaining (undiversified) risk. But I don't have anything like 4x my original position as I made my larger profit by taking very large exposure between 60-60.8p (having earned a 1p dividend prior) where the odds of getting 61.5p was as good as nailed on. 2% profit on a very secure (non-volatile) position should not be sneezed at.
There is a risk that they find little interest in Far Ralia, hence my now 40% position (i.e. 4% of the original risk amount). I still expect the outcome to be positive for holders, though. |
My upside from here is fairly limited, as I didn't reinvest the 52p capital return. The capital return took care of my book cost, so what's left is the profit.
In real terms, any further uplift from here won't make a big difference for me, given the size of the rump that's left.
Good luck to those that remain. I only invested after the wind down was announced, so it's been short but worthwhile. |
 I think the problem here is when people think in terms of 61p/62p and whither it is worth holding on for a few pence more.
I now hold 4.5 times my original (final?) API holding.
As I said before API has been a "lucky" share for me and I have done very well from it over the past five/six years.....I sold out completely a few times and then bought back in but was able to buy very well with all the confusion last year.
What interested me recently was when the 52p was paid and the price came down then ex dividend and obviously the price fell further.
I've bought four times since ex dividend and just checked that my average is 6.3p on the additional shares ......my original purchases were in the very low 50p range but I'm talking about my 6p purchases.
Now to the fine detail .
1. The company has a target of 64p returns .....obviously +/-
2. The land is priced at £10m and could go for more
3. Current grants for the planting have still to be paid to API.
4. When sold the land comes with additional grants to be paid to the purchaser.
5. Q3 update gave asset value of 65p with most but not all costs included.
6. after Q3 there were two months of rental not included and this comes to over £2m ?
On my figures a 15% return gives a 62.25p final settlement
even at 6.5p a 15% return is 62.5p.
These figures are well short of the repeated 64p ( over £5m down so not trivial)
Very simple arithmetic shows that a 63p return makes 8p and 64p gives 9p.
Now my point is that ABRDN have said ...."take this offer it's a big discount but it will be quick and you should get c.64p at the end " or words very close to this ......61.5 or 62p is not really good enough. but anything above is a big return on c.6.5p.
As for ASLI which I also hold I am almost certain that API will be done and dusted long before this is settled (never liked ASLI and holding against my better judgement) |
I sold as soon as the dividends were announced, got 61.90p in total, just don't know when the highland property will sell. Topped up ASLI, ADIG and a few others. |
Pavey - I confess that I'm in two minds whether to continue to hang on. Sell now that the dividend has been paid (and bank 18% over 7 months) or hang on and wait for the trees to be sold and a final distribution?
I'm coming around to the view that the upside from here may not be worth waiting an uncertain period of time for, and I'd be better recycling the cash,such as it is.
Thoughts of others are welcome. |
Divi paid, a useful time to get the cash with all the interesting situations out there. |
Bought more here today.( I have quite a few that are closer to 6p)
A 15% uplift takes us to 7.5p and if you add the 55p paid you get 62.5p which is a pretty big miss on their oft quoted 64p and even bigger miss on their last stated NAV of 65p......61.5p or 6.5p would be a bit of a shocker ....£10m lost down the back of the sofa !!??
15% would certainly do well enough but the percentage return ramps up considerably as you get closer to 64p.......usual warning....it is ABRDN !!!??? |
Looking forward to that 3p divi on Friday. |
@swiftnick18 re your:#1306. Quite right. Apologies. |
Spectoacc perhaps you could advise them other state "API Return of Capital,RETURN OF GBP0.52 PER SHARE." |
Minor point, but having finally paid the capital return, I see IG are describing it as a "dividend". Be interesting to see what they report to the taxman, for those not holding in tax-free a/c. |
There's a general rule that the worst performing sector of the market over the course of the year tends to be the best performing sector the following year. Let's hope this works for infrastructure in 2025. |
Thanks SpectoAcc - it's like footie cards in the early 70s; "got, not got...." The only one in the latter category for me is TRIG. |
Talking my own book, but I've got/looking to possibly add to, amongst others:
TRIG
ORIT
SEIT
GCP
FSFL
FGEN
SUPR
NESF
A bit of a theme, but can't believe those yields won't cause s/p's to come back up eventually. Yes, many are annuity-esque, but if you were offered an annuity at 9%, 10%, 12%, you'd take it.
There's opacity in most of the structures - how well covered are the divis, how much debt is at subsidiary level etc - but some are also operating biggish buy backs, eg TRIG, FGEN, GCP, ORIT.
Paid to wait, albeit so far there's been few clear bottoms. |
A lot of potential homes for the cash
Any specifics SpectoAcc? My PF is full of insurers and high yielding ITs and UK blue-chips. I was thinking of a few of the i shares high yield European ETF "vehicle" IDVY - 30 listed securities from the Eurozone. Admittedly, it's boring and not particularly high yield with a trailing 6% paid 1/4ly. But the overall average ptbv is 0.89 and p/e 8.35 and I would have thought relatively safe. |
AJB, HL, ii, CS all paid, wasn't expecting it until tomorrow. Makes accounts look a lot better :) And 3p divi still to come.
A lot of potential homes for the cash.. Been the worst Santa "rally" I can remember, unless you're in RPI. |
II seem pretty slick generally - nowt yet on Iweb or AJB; I'd normally expect AJB to be slowest of the 3 on dividends etc |
52p through on II - quicker than I'd anticipated. Already put some to work TRIG, FSFL, FGEN |
The only thing I can add is that I was told that they have still to receive some planting grants and that there is still the rental income for October and November to be added ( by my calculation £2.2m)
Wind up costs are difficult to quantify but a final 64p is a figure that ABRDN have quoted more than once.
The delayed sale of Far Ralia was well signposted and isn't necessarily down to a lack of interest as there were a number of regulatory hoops to jump through.
This land is in the books at £10m and up for sale at £12m. |
Retention has to be cautious as they can’t run out of cash. They’ve been a little obtuse which doesn’t do them any credit but the journey since summer has been ok. I don’t think anyone knows what Far Ralia will fetch, or when. Bit of a strange one that is. |
Garbetklb
my attempt - probably risible but maybe others will correct:
From Circular:
Management Fee of 0.20% per annum of the average portfolio value, calculated and paid quarterly in arrears until Delisting, but to be no less than £50,000 per quarter
Disposal Fee of 0.40% of gross disposal proceeds (being the disposal proceeds since 31 May 2024)
Incentive Fee payable on completion of the Managed Wind-Down provided that gross disposal proceeds since 31 May 2024 are equivalent to not less than 90% of the Portfolio Value
Liquidation Fee of £35,000 per quarter from the time of Delisting until completion of the liquidation
A Marketing Fee of £17,500 per quarter until the appointment of the liquidator
REMAINING COSTS (£m)
Manager Fees
Mgt Fee - Oct-Nov 0.152
Mgt Fee - Dec to Mar so 4mo 0.011
Disposal Fee 1.444
Incentive fee 0
Liquidation Fee say 3 Qtrs 0.105
Mktg fee Oct-Mar 0.035
Total 1.746
Other Costs
Liquidator 0.150
Opex 1.000
Tax ????
Windup of Ltd co's? ????
Total costs (excl ??? items) 2.896
After Contingency 5.0?
(plse excuse 3 decimal places above when none would be more appropriate!) |
From the RNS 03/12/24, API suggested they would receive +/- £234m for the sale of the portfolio.
The 52p return would cost £198.23m and the 3p PID would cost £11.44m, total of these 2 returns being £209.67m, suggesting API would be retaining approx £24.33m - why & for what??
Far Ralia is generally added at about £10m
And there will be unspecified winding up costs - but surely relatively minor??
Market cap at 6.4p = £24.4m
So £24.4m vs NAV £34.3m (ex winding up costs)
29% discount to NAV, ex winding up costs - assuming Far Ralia goes at £10m net.
Would love to hear any estimates of winding up cost........ |
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