Abrdn Property Income Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 27/9/2024 07:28

None of them are worth what the NAV says, but if it's really a net 64p, disappointing when they'd only written the NAV down in August. Should be the previous figure they compare against.

The uncertainty remains W Ralia, but they'll still be sat on almost all cash after 29th November.


Edit - glad you're not certain either @Wc104 ;) Have tried calling them but no answer yet. Is potentially a buy at 61p IMO.

[williamcooper104] 27/9/2024 07:28

I read it as 64p including estimated costs plus the Scottish Forrest They say the £351 cash implies a net asset value Which to be suggests that the £351m is not 64p So it's 65p total (being the 64 plus 1p divi) with a little risk around what they get for the Forrest and deal fees/net working capital adjustments

[spoole5] 27/9/2024 07:22

EBOX 2.0 and no opportunity to vote

[rimau1] 27/9/2024 07:20

Agreed, its a net 64p from the buyer excluding Far Ralia which could be worth another 10m but then you need to net off the costs of wind down. There is no 1p increment as the dividend is paid out of sale proceeds. I am budgeting for a net 64p. No point debating it further IMO but i might top up at 61p for a 400bps return in 8 weeks time

[spectoacc] 27/9/2024 07:11

I didn't have the 1p on top, but it could be. I think it's coming from the £351m proceeds (or equivalent, since buyer is assuming the debt - and leaving none with W Ralia HoldCo):

"It is expected that the Company will declare the Q3 dividend of 1 penny per API Share in line with previous guidance, to be paid before distribution of sale proceeds."


Also:

"Such returns will be subject to the net realisation value of Far Ralia, which API is actively marketing, adjustments arising from the completion process, the operational costs of managing API through to liquidation (including tax effects) and the liquidation costs."

So if it was 64p total return, that's after accounting for the unquantifiable above?


And seems it's 12.7% discount to June NAV, not the 8% quoted earlier, which does get us to 64p.

In conclusion - really not sure. £351m is the only solid figure. I still think it's 64p from buyer, plus W Ralia, less all costs/fees.

[bramcych] 27/9/2024 07:08

It is completely unclear- what a mess. Needs an additional RNS.

[frazboy] 27/9/2024 07:08

I read it as 64 + 1 + RaliaCompletion end November but uncertainty is timing of return due to Ralia sale? I figure the dividend is being paid from ongoing earnings (admittedly, not completely covered)

[williamcooper104] 27/9/2024 07:05

Which is why these leeks usually come from one of the banks working on the deal

[spectoacc] 27/9/2024 07:04

Market suggesting 64p total, anyone read it like that?

[joey52] 27/9/2024 07:01

Thanks Spectoacc.

[spectoacc] 27/9/2024 06:57

That's how I read it - the deal's stated as being 8% below the June valuation, which was 73.3p, ie 67.4p (less costs of liquidation etc).

But not certain, despite reading it twice. If they're stating 64p including W Ralia, they could only do that if they knew the price W Ralia would fetch, and they've no deal yet.

The £35.1m deposit shows it's going ahead - having RNS'd "no offer yet" the day before yesterday :)

Edit - this 8% discount ironically makes the recent office sale look good.

[joey52] 27/9/2024 06:51

So 64p has been agreed with a 1p dividend in November.
Will there be a disribution for the sale of Far Ralia which was valued at 10 million as at 30/06/24 on top?

[mark5man] 27/9/2024 06:48

If its all completed by end November that would be a 10% share price return already from my purchase in August and nearly a further 10% from the liquidation and dividends since. I'm not that active as an investor and I think that return meets my needs very well so unless the price rallies much closer then I will wait until liquidation

[spectoacc] 27/9/2024 06:23

Leaking it has indeed forced it out much faster. Hooray.

"The Estimated Net Asset Value per Share represents:
•a discount of 12.7 per cent. to API's net asset value per API Share of 73.3 pence as at 30 June 2024;
•a premium of 6.66 per cent. to the API Share price of 60 pence as at 26 September 2024, being the closing API Share price immediately prior to the date of this announcement; and
•a premium of 20.1 per cent. to the API Share price of 53.3 pence on 28 May 2024, being the date that API Shareholders approved the Managed Wind-Down."

29th November for completion.


Can see why some will have wanted more - all very well to point out the time value of money, but over time the assets should be worth more/would have been bringing in income too.

[dr biotech] 27/9/2024 06:23

Looks like about 65p in total then. Whilst it’s one of my largest individual holdings I probably should have bought more below 50. Not a huge gain, but it was close to a sure thing.

Who is going to hold on and wait for the end? May sell some today depending on the spread

[shareideas1] 26/9/2024 16:19

Big big volumes today at close

[mr euro] 26/9/2024 08:49

I just bought a few more. For those trade watches it was the 33.3k showing as ?

Could move rapidly from here.

[pavey ark] 26/9/2024 08:42

NAV 73p. c. 71p (without moorland)

10% discount for a quick sale ....64p....sell moorland c.66p

So 64p-66p looks like the range.

I didn't vote to merge with CREI as I couldn't decide either way .
When they said they would go for a "managed" sale I did not want or expect this.

However we are where we are and 65p would match the current CREI price.

I don't believe that any serious efforts have been made to come close to maximising shareholder value.

On a personal note I was all out in early 2023 and bought 50% of my current holding over the next year .
The remainder of my holding was acquired in seven trades from April of this year.....four at under 50p.
I was certainly prepared to wait this out for a full year/18 months but it is now obvious that the people running API have a different agenda.

[spectoacc] 26/9/2024 05:49

Depends on what your expectations were - my largest holding, & mine will be met at eg 63p +1p +2p, if it comes quickly..

Fair point @mindthestash, but there's the time value of money.

What I would like to see is API test the better stuff on the market - have we ever seen it for sale? Without that, difficult to know a fair price. I don't trust management to tell me what that is.

As others have said - should have merged with CREI. Blocked by a small minority, and by the majority not voting.

[holts] 25/9/2024 17:30

I’m hoping this is not a damp squib like Ebox

[shareideas1] 25/9/2024 16:07

Ultimately the faster they can pay down debt and wind up (now the decision made) probably the better from a cost perspective.

[mindthestash] 25/9/2024 16:03

I'd like to think 67-68 but with this board I'm seeing low sixties. Not a managed wind down but a shotgun.
I'm in no rush but I have the impression the board just want this finished quickly and these guys can smell it. I wish they were on my side here.

[shareideas1] 25/9/2024 15:46

They also sold Dover for £9.5m and Manchester for £4.3m since the last NAV, so can add maybe 20 to 25m to the rumoured 350m price tabled to get an all in value of say 67-68p

[shareideas1] 25/9/2024 15:37

Reading further they talk to expecting a capital uplift on sale making it one of their better investments

[shareideas1] 25/9/2024 15:35

Far Ralia is mentioned in annual report as being worth £8-10m and they have started marketing it