Abrdn Property Income Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 23/8/2023 10:55

SB - hope you didn't cut at the bottom. Stay with it. The whole sector is oversold, so enjoy the yield whilst you await a 10% capital gain before end '23.

[pavey ark] 23/8/2023 09:41

API is now yielding 8.9% a discount of 45% and a LTV of 28%....plus a highly regarded management (at managing property at least).

The recent 28% shortfall in dividend cover was down to a number of factors and shouldn't be repeated.

Investors have to take the time any effort to assess the details.

I hold API and have no great concerns and certainly see value at this level.....everything has a fair price.

If the market has over reacted with this and REITs it wouldn't be the first time.

[frazboy] 21/8/2023 17:06

You have to remind yourself that this traded at a premium to NAV not so long ago. Different times, sure, but it’s been quite a volte-face.

The chart isn’t too different from many of the other REITs, it’s just been rotated a little about its origin perhaps reflective of the company specific issues (in particular the refinancing)

What I’m trying to figure out is, what is the market really telling us, higher for longer and a recession which doesn’t lead to a cut in rates and all that this entails (defaults and voidage). Perhaps?

[skinny] 21/8/2023 16:51

Back to levels not seen since 2009 - decisions, decisions.

[spittingbarrel] 21/8/2023 16:45

I hate to say it (I've got a small long position at 50p) but the chart doesn't look good. Tomorrow is make your mind up day, either cut it or buy more, I'm erring on the side of cut it at the moment.

[2wild] 21/8/2023 16:06

Now look great value. Paid 44.65p on a 8.95% dividend yield.

[hybrasil] 21/8/2023 10:09

Skyship

I thought the presentation here which I listened to in full by the chairman etc was measured and excellent

[skyship] 21/8/2023 08:32

Tetragon has truly appalling governance issues - discount for a very good reason.

The REITs on the other hand are totally transparent - see the many Presentations, especially over at InvestorMeet.

[hybrasil] 19/8/2023 09:37

Whatever about the affects of interest rates on property stock look at the venture capital world. Molten ventures (grow)6 years ago when I bought was £3. It went to £12. Luckily I sold some on the way down at £8. It’s now £2.30 against its most recent NAV of £7.80.

How about that for a discount!

[nickrl] 18/8/2023 22:39

@sky i had emailed Mark Blyth as he usually presents that side on the presentations but got an out of office till Monday!! So thx for getting detail and should see not much more on the RCF for the remainder of this year so interest bill wont materially increase.

[hindsight] 18/8/2023 21:45

Thx Sky, it was pretty clear to me from the body language of the interview they feel uncomfortable at way share price has gone (unlike a lot tail risk hedge fund managers) and would not stand in the way of a sensible offer.
Whether one comes is another issue

nickrl, exactly my thoughts too, I just keep rolling over the same pot, CSH, CTPT, hopefully EPIC, without increasing exposure from cash yet
"but like to know the EPIC redemption is a done deal before commit anymore"

[skyship] 18/8/2023 21:02

A simple Q to Jason Baggeley re Knowsley - replied within 2hrs, when he should have gone home for the week-end:


"Nick, the total cost of the scheme, including the land etc is about £14m, and just over half has been spent to date. The cost is financed through a combination of cash and RECF.

Kind regards, Jason"

[nickrl] 18/8/2023 13:37

Mattioli down another 1% to 5.9% this is down from 9.3% at start of year so is small shareholders bailing out as its broadly nominee accounts i guess into the higher rate savings products that are available at c6% now with your capital protected.

@sky the RCF is at 6.7% currently and may go a tad higher so your right that it won't add that much extra to current drawn levels. What we don't know is how much Knowsley devpt is costing and while some of that may be funded from cash im pretty sure they will have to draw on RCF to fund it as they are generating insufficient free cash currently to cover divi let alone capex. Now the recent lettings has significantly improved their coverage position to maybe c90% although im waiting to see if they will tell me what contracted rent is at H2.

The spare of lettings certainly puts them in a far better position and they've outperformed peers on rental growth for sure and the share price at this level is difficult to ignore but like to know the EPIC redemption is a done deal before commit anymore to reits.

[skyship] 18/8/2023 13:05

Skinny - thnx. Done!

[skinny] 18/8/2023 12:16

Skyship - you have mail.

[skyship] 18/8/2023 12:01

Raj - no, the amount of extra interest pretty insignificant set alongside their total revenues.

[raj k] 18/8/2023 11:59

@ skyship, however dont you think that if interest rates do tick up further, even by 0.5 to 1% the market will be wary of API as its RCF drawing will be mean more interest payments due. You have to believe the interest rates will be flat and then taper down eventually to be confident the share price wont tank further?

[skinny] 18/8/2023 11:23

45.85p matches the low set in June - the next lowest price was 45.5 in July 2009.

[skyship] 18/8/2023 10:58

API at 46p are on a 45% discount and an 8.7% yield.

I suspect that as things normalise within the sector, the yield will reduce to 7.5% or lower.

At 53.25p the discount would be 36.5% and the yield 7.51%.

That would deliver a capital gain of 15% to add to the 8.7% running yield.

Makes API a great buy; but I'm already in there - so a great HOLD!

[pavey ark] 18/8/2023 09:35

SpectoAcc, Oh dear, didn't mean to upset you.

I didn't say mine was a balanced view (I'm an actual shareholder) but I did say "I think there is room for a more rational , balanced view here."......not difficult when I was only going for a MORE balanced view.

I understood UKCM told you to get lost a fact that comes across clearly in your posting there.

I'm glad that API talked to you ....you must like that.

"But don't worry, it's at lows and you're only down 0.12%." .....hmmm you rather jumped in with that one and honestly don't know where to start ....I'll leave it for now.

I remember you from my days in AIRE....you were howling on and on about Simon Thompson saying that their portfolio was index linked when it was largely capped at 4%...on and on and on ....a pattern ???
I made 15.6% at AIRE and we all knew about the cap !!

[jonwig] 18/8/2023 09:21

Pavey, re forestry -

There's a whole company devoted to just this sector, FSF. Its assets and share price have stayed fairly steady over the past years. Land values have been steady, planting and harvesting produces income, and carbon credits are a promising, but unclear bonus.

API's holdings won't make much impact, but they won't cause upset either.

[spectoacc] 18/8/2023 09:04

Same old, same old.

But don't worry, it's at lows and you're only down 0.12%.

"abrdn" haven't told me to get lost - one thing I'd credit API with is decent communication with shareholders. They've always been forthcoming when I've asked about rent-frees etc. Slightly surprised I seem to be the only one.

abrdn/API have got interest rates wrong throughout - no one maxes out an RCF at this point in the cycle for a b/e return.

Love the notion that yours is the balanced view.

[hugepants] 18/8/2023 08:24

The portfolio is mostly industrial/logistics and retail warehouse. LTV covenants in no danger. Cant really see shares going lower barring a market meltdown.