Abrdn Property Income Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 17/8/2023 15:07

Or perhaps head over to NESF where the yield is 9.4% but the income stream is far more assured because the sun is always going to shine and you don't have to deal with tenants, CVA's or even really credit risk.

(not that I own NESF either as I think there's better value elsewhere but I'm sure you get my drift).

[spectoacc] 17/8/2023 14:48

How come indeed. Because the earnings yield is well below 8.5%, and the discount (NAV) is largely irrelevant other than for LTV purposes.

Interest rates were 1% in 2009 (or rather, fell from 1.5% at the start of the year, to 0.5%).

API paid out some decent dividends in the 14 years since of course.

[giltedge1] 17/8/2023 13:47

Agreed office exposure in right places, Birmingham Office updated, so expenditure behind them, can't imagine many being built their in next few years. Bracknell & Reading affluent SE towns, could be sold for repurposing, & City Office fully let.
Recent lettings in offices, mean a big drop in void costs 2023. Good long leases at St Helens & Welwyn Garden City & new industrial unit being built. Checking the share price graph last time share price this low 2009, so the odds statistically speaking of making a gain are great. considering portfolio improved, old offices & industrials sold, so can argue buying now much more modern & potentially rewarding portfolio than way back then in 2009.
My question as now yielding 8.5% & over 40% discount, how come Manager & Directors' are not buying?.

[skyship] 17/8/2023 13:24

hs - totally agree: "Doing turns has been much better than sitting and holding in CP overall."

I'm a trader by mentality, certainly not an outdated Buy & Hold merchant!

Especially in these markets - take an odd 4%-5% and move on. Usually you get the opportunity to rejoin the game a few days/weeks down the line...

EPIC caught me out though. Took the turn, only to seem them move sharply better. Well done you for still being there.

Still holding my NBPS. From the current offer at 119.83, the maturity at 130.63 in just 14months time provides a profit of 9%. A GRY of 7.43%. A very good Hold in a corner of my SIPP.

[skyship] 17/8/2023 13:18

Today's RNS - see Header:
-------------------------

Negative investor sentiment towards the commercial real estate sector has seen the share price discount to net asset values (NAVs) among REITs and listed property companies remain excessively wide, including abrdn Property Income Trust (API). This is despite a large valuation correction at the end of 2022 and transactional evidence of value stabilisation. A re-rating of the sector and API's shares should be triggered by market indications that interest rates have peaked (due to their close correlation with property yields), so promising inflation data for June was encouraging.

For API's manager, the focus continues to be on growing income, and on that front it has performed well. Asset management initiatives within the portfolio have seen its vacancy rate drop to below 5%, after a string of recent lettings within its office portfolio. Additional rental reversion potential across the wider portfolio might encourage further positivity.

Full Research:

[raj k] 17/8/2023 12:19

I added some more today @46.4 . Should have done yesterday to capture the dividend but didnt have the cash.

[hindsight] 17/8/2023 12:13

Thx Sky, where I will be if EPIC happens while wait for the cash, unless sell things like NBPS but trading friction more than cfd financing cost

Doing turns has been much better than sitting and holding in CP overall

[skyship] 17/8/2023 11:55

Raj - quite so.

[skyship] 17/8/2023 11:55

giltedge - you need to view the last corporate presentation (link in Header). In particular 25mins onwards.

The headline 19.6% Office is not that great in itself; but could be construed a negative nevertheless. However, look at the detail and the lettings and you will see that for API the Offices exposure is proving no problem whatsoever. Good properties in good locations, like Birmingham. Bracknell & one other a problem; but a very small part of the overall.

So IMO no deterrent for any prospective predator. A predator won't be a fellow REIT; more likely to be a superannuation fund or PE fund. Most likely from overseas.

[raj k] 17/8/2023 11:39

@ giltedge1 I thought API's office exposure was primary best in class offices (flexible, EPC_) etc?

[giltedge1] 17/8/2023 10:55

Regarding takeover prospects, can't see any predator due to office exposure, although low 20%, hard to sell in todays market, except London Office maybe. Best hope merger, PCTN maybe, UKCM stablemate, but large holding by Phoenix complicates. In both cases yield would fall, but maybe a gain in capital, to discount of Picton for example.

[skyship] 16/8/2023 20:23

hs - just fully invested in my personal a/c; and fully at MAX in my SIPP.

Screwed up on EPIC. Bt quite a few at the bottom; but sold on a 4% turn!

[hindsight] 16/8/2023 19:20

Can I ask why a cfd Sky, as no stamp here or are you thinking like me need a bridge for some of EPIC

[skyship] 16/8/2023 15:50

Likewise - a CFD @ 46.4p

[dr biotech] 16/8/2023 15:42

I've added too. Hoping that we fall less than the dividend tomorrow that would form a chart low point, not that I pay much attention to that.
If there is a big seller presumably we will see an RNS when they are done, assuming they had a notifiable holding.

[hindsight] 16/8/2023 14:26

Have added today, the fall has allowed room to my 10% limit and looks like EPIC deal happening

[skyship] 16/8/2023 13:45

Would love to know the logic of the seller. But perhaps not a fund; a forced seller having to sell down to repay margin calls.

[ghhghh] 16/8/2023 13:41

Had it confirmed that big seller out there, dumping the share price down to boost volume. My impression is that still some way to go re clearing out the seller but good volume today

[skyship] 16/8/2023 13:39

Ultimate low 45p; however, hoping the intraday 46p is the last of this shakeout:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[nickrl] 16/8/2023 13:39

@CC2014 never see point of QD reasearch i know its paid for but at least teh Ediston ones have a go at forward forecast which i use as a back check to my own spreadsheet.

[skinny] 16/8/2023 13:02

Just an observation :-


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[cc2014] 16/8/2023 11:04

This may be of interest to some.

Paid for research from QuotedData.



I couldn't see anything new.

[hindsight] 16/8/2023 11:04

Yes amazing, at my self imposed 10% exposure limit on these. But so was I on CTPT & EPIC

[skyship] 16/8/2023 10:08

Strewth - now on offer @ 46.10. Discount @ 45% & yield @ 8.7%!

Really being punished for their appalling debt mistake.