Abrdn Property Income Share Discussion Threads

[spittingbarrel] 23/6/2023 16:39

Hopefully some support at 45, might add tomorrow if I'm feeling brave.

[giltedge1] 23/6/2023 15:52

Topped up at £0.47 for my SIPP, don't know if right or wrong, but seemed a good price, 8.5% yield sold SHED last week for a profit, before fall so recycling funds.

[giltedge1] 22/6/2023 19:09

Looks like purchase of Interest Rate Cap at just over 4%, good decision, till December 25. Board has confirmed 4p dividend next 2 years & reduced Managers Fee, Voids 5% & decreasing, all we need is a positive June Quarter update!.

[giltedge1] 22/6/2023 09:15

Hello agree PE will swoop when time right, has happened in past other sectors, lloyds insurance vehicles from memory. Commercial property less liquid, so will need more buoyant market, or low holding costs.

[cc2014] 22/6/2023 09:12

I find the situation at CSH almost impossible to predict.

Another 5p is possible but I think that would be the max extra available, but given the incredibly low support for it, it feels like the shareholders would not accept that either.

Even the extra 5p would be difficult for CK now as the market is in a worse position than would likely have been anticipated when the bid was made.

But, if the bid was likely to fall apart the share price wouldn't be were it is, it would have been drifting down faster over the last few days.



I can only conclude there are a large number of shareholders who have not yet voted and are looking for the sweetner and think it likely. They have more appetite for playing chicken than me.

I sort of hope they get screwed over. I suspect most PI's will have by now sold out anyway so there will be little harm to anyone on here.

[skyship] 22/6/2023 08:48

Yes CSH a very strange situation.

Do you think they'll try to sweeten he offer with, say, another 5p? Up from 80p to 85p?

Better to allow it to lapse, then come back next year.

If no sweetener then surely they'll drop 25% in an instant; so surprised they're still holding up at 79.5p

[spectoacc] 22/6/2023 08:37

If they were listed (so say they owned 90%) - 49p, tho there's separate rules for close companies.

NAV is a figure plucked from the air by valuers.

LMP will have had a good look at API before going for CTPT. Interestingly, the CSH bid looks like falling through not due to the bidder, but due to shareholders wanting more.

[skyship] 22/6/2023 08:37

Sorry - not sure I follow that!

[giltedge1] 22/6/2023 08:25

Say in theory one person owned all API shares privately & the estate winding up would HMRC value shares at 49p or NAV 82p?

[skyship] 22/6/2023 08:24

The figures certainly pan out well for a PE bid.

A cash offer at 70p (the share price level of just 5months ago - see chart above) would cost a net £267m versus an NAV of £314m. The offer at a 15% discount would surely be accepted as it would be at a 40% premium to the current lowly 50p.

I can almost taste it!

[skyship] 22/6/2023 08:16

Indeed. Jason Baggaley states in the presentation that the market has pretty much dried up; and only when the interest rates begin to fall will transactions recommence.

That said, for the quoted entities things are different. Bidders and especially PE bidders sitting on "dry powder" cash, act when targets are distressed, ie like the markets themselves, they are forward looking.

So opportunistic bids could arrive now; not in 6-9months time when the Real Estate market is again showing signs of life and sps rising accordingly.

[spectoacc] 22/6/2023 08:13

Retail investors sitting on cash perhaps only in the sense of being able to earn 5.5%, with no capital loss, on that cash. Otherwise, most seem to be invested IMO.

The huge elephant in the room for REITs is recession - we've seen next to no trading issues yet (albeit Tuffnells went bust the other day, c.3.5% of SHED's rent roll, tho I'm sure they'll soon re-let).

If recession is coming, with CVAs, voids, empty rates, REITS are not cheap.

If it's not, they are.

[giltedge1] 22/6/2023 07:56

Hello Skyship yes cheap but no buyers institutions not buying & retail investors sitting on cash. My guess prices will stay low next 12 months & then when interest rates drop back & market improves there will be either private equity takeover, wind ups or mergers. No point Board winding up in current market. So a waiting game.

[skyship] 21/6/2023 14:14

The latest company presentation - 13th Jun'23:

[skyship] 21/6/2023 13:19

Now on offer at 49.25p! Discount at 40.2%; yield at 8.12%.

Somebody come and bid for this. Absurdly under-valued; even with inflation and interest rates still moving in the wrong direction.

[giltedge1] 07/6/2023 11:35

Yes on an upward trend, joined at 50 entry trade, as usual should have bought more!, never mind going in right direction & 8% yield, board stated will keep next 2 years, better than a gilt!.

[skyship] 05/6/2023 13:36

Continuing a slow recovery - now 52p Bid...6% up on the recent low.

[skyship] 02/6/2023 15:50

YUMP / jonwig - I think slightly updated with the Mar'23 NAV published May:

# Office - 19.5%
# Industrial - 53.4%
# R/W - 14.8%
# Retail - 1.8%
# Other - 9.8%

[yump] 02/6/2023 14:58

Thanks much appreciated

I need to get on a desktop - easy to miss stuff when scrolling on mobile !

[jonwig] 02/6/2023 14:29

yump - annual report, p26 -

[yump] 02/6/2023 13:56

Has anyone got a link to a list of the proportions of the portfolio that are in different sectors/markets.

Been looking on website and in results but not sure where it would be - assuming it exists.

Thanks for any help.

[yump] 02/6/2023 09:58

I’m hoping a lot of gloom over the economy and possibly over rental is already in the price. Stuck first batch into isa.

I guess we’ll see if its a gift in a year or so.

Doesn’t seem a bad time to be buying yield if the share prices are depressed, just got to keep an eye out for structural decline.

[spindoctor111] 26/5/2023 09:50

Added more SREI and API to the 'very patient capital' simmering pot.
Request that Mattioli kindly keep selling for a while.

[adae] 24/5/2023 16:13

But why weren't you this time?