Conversed with the corporate broker. The shareholders’ return will be 64p +/- adjustments of actuals v. estimates of closing expenses which are included in the 64p. Payment of the proposed 1p dividend is included in the 64p estimate. |
C(Sh)itywire done an API piece inc:
"This week the trust completed the £4.3m sale of an office in Manchester at 2.3% below the June valuation and 11.3% below its value on 31 March, highlighting the problem of being a forced seller after a property downturn"
Highlighting the problem? They're letting all the best stuff go for 8%/12.7% discount, ie less than the part-vacant office went for.
The price is the reality after a lengthy sale process, but they shouldn't be talking it up. |
64p is 16.2% below 31 March NAV. Wasn't API supposed to have mostly quality properties. Perhaps if they put more time and effort into marketing and selling properties rather than massaging down NAV, could have seen better outcomes. |
Has anyone ever looked at IRES Irish Residential Properties? |
There's a couple of very cheap funds in the renewable sector - DORE and ROOF. Both on c30% discounts, paying c8% yields, yet underlying performance has been good. I suspect the discount is due to their small size, but I exepct some consolidation in the sector (similar to what we've seen in the REIT sector) - either one of these would make a good bid target and in the meantime you're getting a nice yield. |
From here, I'm treating this as a money-market trade. Possible to buy at 61p, and will receive, say, 64p for settlement November 30th (likely). That's approaching 30% annualised, and to the extent that part of the 64p is paid rather later, it barely touches the IRR (as the fractional payment is just that - fractional).
EPIC was crazy, and this is a little light, but these dribs and drabs have been a good use of MM money (now at 5.38% with CSH2).
Of course, the big money has been made as, like may others here, I bought in the low 50s. Sold a few approaching 60p, but added size this morning. |
I sarted buying in August 2023 all the way though to June 2024 , in both my GIA and ISA. Had to buy in my GIA as ISA was maxed and am limited to only £2880 in SIPP with tax relief. Average of 49.4p in ISA and 51.1p in GIA. Around the same value in each. Can't complain, with the dividends taken into account a sale at circa 64p will be fine. Could the board have done better for us shareholders, probably but it is what it is. I have no power over them.
My main headache now is to work out what the sale proceeds will go into. Have small holdings in ALSI, SERE and a very small one in CLI. Might add to those or redeploy into PE trusts like CTPE |
CJ - thnx for that. |
Only fair to say that the reason I looked at, and then purchased, these was due to Skyship highlighting the opportunity. I suspect the same may be true of others. So thanks Skyship. |
Similar story as Skyship and WC104 bought back in at around 50p after selling when share topped out prior to deals falling through and relatively happy with the return. |
It's a great outcome if you bought just a few months ago for the wind up party ASLI have marked their asserts down for a wind down; if they sell up quickly it's of course still going to go at a discount to that discounted NAV, but that still leaves plenty of upside The downside is if you're using long term capital to hold ASLI that you're going to then reinvest in once you get out of ASLi as you might make a quick return but miss out on the market pricing upwards But if you're using trading margin/cash then that's not a problem |
Always the bankers who talk, or surveyors are just as bad if not worse, accountants and lawyers usually keep things quite |
Ditto - only started buying in Feb and average at just a little over 50p so very happy Can understand how those who've held for much longer are a little underwhelmed |
I agree the wording of RNS is very unclear (and probably deliberately so).
My reading/assumption is as follows:
a) They say that offer of 351m values whole company at circa 64p per share as of end June
b) API will receive rents for period Jul-Nov
I will assume that all monies received in b) will be used to offset running and liquidation costs, and hopefully they will balance out. So shareholders should expect a return of 64p a share. (This might be comprised of 1p Q3 divi plus 63p final return).
I would hope that they don't mention a specific no like 64p per share, without being very confident that that is what shareholders will finally receive. |
...these leeks usually come from one of the banks working on the deal...
must be the National Bank of Wales. |
Yes I've made a similar return over similar sort of timeframe, so on that basis reasonably happy too. The problem is someone else is getting these properties very cheaply and will probably do very well over next few years. If I were a long standing shareholder I would not be pleased. |
A few rather negative posts. Just to add balance I'm personally very happy having an average purchase price of just over 50p!
20%+ and a little more to go for over the next 2-3months.
Also happy to stay with ASLI as the next one likely to fall to a bidder; or wind-down over the next 12months. That should return c15%+
Looks as though ASLI today benefiting from some switching across from API. |
Well if you want a quick firesale at the bottom of the cycle then you'll get a poor price - pretty sure API properties are worth significantly more than they sold them for. As I've said before shareholders would have done a lot better in the long run by merging with CREI. |
Alternatively, all of them have made good returns, fairly quickly, with next to no downside risk.
An alternative take would be that valuers are over-optimistic, and not to believe the NAVs. But the market's way ahead of us there. |
@riverman77 - spot on - its been a diversion for me in my journey from growth to income portfolio. certainly profitable with lowish down side but maybe not so much more return than picking high yield but going concerns, and certainly less predictable. Not a no brainer for me into ASLI - I may return to SUPR or look further away from property which seems easier to slash in value during winddown than other asset classes (eg RMII) |
The lesson here is these wind-up situations are rarely as fruitful as they first appear - boards generally want to get rid of assets as quickly as possible, while additional costs eat into any of the returns that remain. Will certainly not be tempted to park the money in ASLI as you'll probably have exactly the same outcome. |
I may have double counted the 1p divi in my estimate actually because it will be included in the 64p. Probably best to assume 64p in 3 or 4 months then. |
Best wishes but I'm sure the board are sowing confusion among themselves and their advisors running up the clock. It's a brave investor that assumes there will be anything left by the time the land deal completes.
OK. Nuff said. I really need to move on! |
Lol 31st November...
"It shouldn’t be an English language comprehension test"
Too right. Amazing how often these things are.
Perhaps we all agree on "64p, maybe a bit more, majority of it after few months, the last bit only when W Ralia sold/completed". |
Board can't even shotgun it away for a bargain price without sowing confusion (this is mostly sheds now). This is not a managed windown.
Lets hope for clarification and a bump in share price and I'll sell out and move on. |
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