Board can't even shotgun it away for a bargain price without sowing confusion (this is mostly sheds now). This is not a managed windown.
Lets hope for clarification and a bump in share price and I'll sell out and move on. |
Presumably the 35m deposit wipes out the existing floating rate debt?
The 150k GBP monthly interest saved will go to offset "liquidation costs" I suppose |
Buying under 61p this morning was a gift IMO |
Yep - that's I think the best reading of it So basically it's get 63p end of November and up to 2p a few months thereafter - likely to be quite a few months |
Yes extremely unclear and probably explains why share price barely moved - no one understands how much shareholders will actually receive! Either way no intention of selling at 61p, which is the quote I'm currently getting. |
I wrote shortly after 31st Nov. I might be being too optimistic on this but I think they'll have to pay it out quite quickly thereafter. They'll retain some to wrap up anything that is left like FR sale. |
Nov 31st @log?? these managers will try anything to avoid payment |
It's a members vol liquidation they'll be able to invest in money market funds (and I'm sure Aberdeen can suggest a few :) |
It shouldn't be an English language comprehension test |
It's badly worded |
"I read it as 64p including estimated costs plus the Scottish Forrest"
Note 2 says FR is included in the NAV per share of 64p. Personally I think the total return to us once all said and done is
64p + 1p (divi) - some costs* which I don't think will be much + any increase on the 10m valuation they have in for FR forest.
It's not super clear though and I may well be wrong.
On timing I think the vast bulk returned shortly after Nov 31st then some straggler returns
* I write *some* costs because they do seem to be including transaction costs in the estimated NAV per share already. |
I would hope with a fair wind that Ralia is sold quickly so that time value doesn't eat into capital. That says, can a liquidator invest in money market funds to protect capital? Probably not.Added a few more below 61 |
None of them are worth what the NAV says, but if it's really a net 64p, disappointing when they'd only written the NAV down in August. Should be the previous figure they compare against.
The uncertainty remains W Ralia, but they'll still be sat on almost all cash after 29th November.
Edit - glad you're not certain either @Wc104 ;) Have tried calling them but no answer yet. Is potentially a buy at 61p IMO. |
I read it as 64p including estimated costs plus the Scottish Forrest They say the £351 cash implies a net asset value Which to be suggests that the £351m is not 64p So it's 65p total (being the 64 plus 1p divi) with a little risk around what they get for the Forrest and deal fees/net working capital adjustments |
EBOX 2.0 and no opportunity to vote |
Agreed, its a net 64p from the buyer excluding Far Ralia which could be worth another 10m but then you need to net off the costs of wind down. There is no 1p increment as the dividend is paid out of sale proceeds. I am budgeting for a net 64p. No point debating it further IMO but i might top up at 61p for a 400bps return in 8 weeks time |
I didn't have the 1p on top, but it could be. I think it's coming from the £351m proceeds (or equivalent, since buyer is assuming the debt - and leaving none with W Ralia HoldCo):
"It is expected that the Company will declare the Q3 dividend of 1 penny per API Share in line with previous guidance, to be paid before distribution of sale proceeds."
Also:
"Such returns will be subject to the net realisation value of Far Ralia, which API is actively marketing, adjustments arising from the completion process, the operational costs of managing API through to liquidation (including tax effects) and the liquidation costs."
So if it was 64p total return, that's after accounting for the unquantifiable above?
And seems it's 12.7% discount to June NAV, not the 8% quoted earlier, which does get us to 64p.
In conclusion - really not sure. £351m is the only solid figure. I still think it's 64p from buyer, plus W Ralia, less all costs/fees. |
It is completely unclear- what a mess. Needs an additional RNS. |
I read it as 64 + 1 + RaliaCompletion end November but uncertainty is timing of return due to Ralia sale? I figure the dividend is being paid from ongoing earnings (admittedly, not completely covered) |
Which is why these leeks usually come from one of the banks working on the deal |
Market suggesting 64p total, anyone read it like that? |
Thanks Spectoacc. |
That's how I read it - the deal's stated as being 8% below the June valuation, which was 73.3p, ie 67.4p (less costs of liquidation etc).
But not certain, despite reading it twice. If they're stating 64p including W Ralia, they could only do that if they knew the price W Ralia would fetch, and they've no deal yet.
The £35.1m deposit shows it's going ahead - having RNS'd "no offer yet" the day before yesterday :)
Edit - this 8% discount ironically makes the recent office sale look good. |
So 64p has been agreed with a 1p dividend in November.
Will there be a disribution for the sale of Far Ralia which was valued at 10 million as at 30/06/24 on top? |
If its all completed by end November that would be a 10% share price return already from my purchase in August and nearly a further 10% from the liquidation and dividends since. I'm not that active as an investor and I think that return meets my needs very well so unless the price rallies much closer then I will wait until liquidation |
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