Abrdn Diversified Income... Share Discussion Threads

[hohum1] 19/3/2024 12:23

Hope they are in an ISA or SIPP, EI. Otherwise you’ll be paying CGT on the initial return of capital…

[essentialinvestor] 18/3/2024 15:19

I'm up to 44,000 shares now, book coat average at 74.6.

[tiltonboy] 18/3/2024 15:11

Excellent news. I look forward to further updates

[essentialinvestor] 14/3/2024 11:15

I hold CLDN (also trade it) on an approx 38% discount atm and with arguably a decent longer term record.

The ADIG discount only looks attractive given the wind up and dependant on how robust their NAV figure is.

Perhaps some investors question how firm that NAV figure is,
or just want to avoid a lengthy wind up process.

[hugepants] 14/3/2024 10:57

I'm just continuing to add since I cant sensibly reconcile current share price with the £115M (38p per share) to be returned in a few months.

[essentialinvestor] 14/3/2024 10:31

Under 73 pence now available on the offer, well within the quoted spread.

[essentialinvestor] 12/3/2024 16:50

Looking limper than a Vicar's handshake, for now.

A poor day for wider UK markets may have tested the November low today

IF, ADIG does somehow manage to make a slightly higher low, it would be a minor positive. Brave to make such a prediction though given the last few weeks.

[cousinit] 12/3/2024 16:37

I presume that the margin used in the NAV 'normally' is wider than the redemption clause in the loan docs. I seem to recall they renegotiated it from SPENS to a bit wider when they panicked and redeemed the majority at very low Gilt rates...

[thrugelmir] 12/3/2024 16:33

@cc2014

"I looks like they have changed the way they value the 2031 bonds since yesterday to align with the redemption terms, so I assume that's another 0.7% permanently gone off the NAV."

What's changed? Accounting treatment of bonds is standard in calculating NAV's. Though this aspect of discounts is overlooked by the majority of investors.

[essentialinvestor] 12/3/2024 15:13

Exactly, how robust is NAV, significantly more than the discount may suggest, hopefully !.

Sometimes opportunities are created, CREI recently on a market strop.
(Very different situation admittedly).
But the point remains.

[spectoacc] 12/3/2024 15:08

Fair point, albeit you'd hope wind-up situation would be helping.

But like quite a few of them, wind-up seems to be when we discover the NAV isn't quite as realisable as promised.

[essentialinvestor] 12/3/2024 15:05

This also needs to be viewed in the context of a marked general widening of UK IT discounts to NAV.

Some decent IT's selling on around 10% (plus) discounts atm.

Now if you look at the ADIG record since the last NAV in British Assets Trust form... dire does not cover it.

[spectoacc] 12/3/2024 15:00

73.2625p to buy. Agree support isn't looking too healthy.

[essentialinvestor] 12/3/2024 14:46

IF the November low goes, you could see sub 70 pence pretty quickly.

[cc2014] 12/3/2024 14:19

I looks like they have changed the way they value the 2031 bonds since yesterday to align with the redemption terms, so I assume that's another 0.7% permanently gone off the NAV.

I have no position here but I keep coming back to ADIG. I'm sure it's trading at a price I like but the longer I leave it the cheaper it gets which just makes me want to wait even longer. I'm pretty sure whoever is selling has more to come.

[essentialinvestor] 12/3/2024 14:07

I added a small amount, hold over 32,000 shares now - which is probably pocket change to some who post here!.

[tiltonboy] 12/3/2024 12:57

It will be interesting to see how quickly they liquidate the initial tranche.

[essentialinvestor] 12/3/2024 12:42

0.7% approx lower on NAV from yesterday, if I'm reading correctly.

That's a chunky one day % move for ADIG.

[essentialinvestor] 11/3/2024 10:21

Buying at under 73.9.

[strathroyal] 08/3/2024 17:51

Pity they aren't buying back shares as part of the winding up.

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2024 12:33

Nearing the November low.

[cc2014] 08/3/2024 12:02

I see they are redeeming the remaining 6.25% bonds at a price of 115p.

And that ends the tale of that ongoing saga.

I don't know what they are trading at in the market but redeeming them at the likely top of the interest rate cycle makes sense unlike the last lot they bought back which they paid a crazy amount for in retrospect.

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2024 17:14

* thanks for the clarification on the XD.

[chucko1] 07/3/2024 15:30

EI, it went ex-div this morning.

It is worth taking a look at recent NAV development - it has started rising again. This may not be unrelated to the fall in rates the past two weeks after a large rise. It is difficult to be anything other than hopeful that this is the true "reason" as there may be others and there will be significant noise in all of this.
If I was able to attribute changes in NAV to certain factors, I would be all over it, but as I said a few weeks back, this is not possible (without massive effort) even though we have excellent visibility on the portfolio.

However, over a long time period, the correlation with rates is pretty significant, though I am not confident on what they have done to hedge certain risks and therefore whether or not that dilutes this rates correlation at all.

My working conclusion is that rates DO play a significant part, and that if you are happy to take the risk that we are at/near the peak of the cycle, no matter how quickly they may or may not fall, the the structure of the fund, it's wind down status and discount represent a pretty decent medium term investment.